Learning from YOU!

Ukraine, Venezuela and other things

I am indebted to my commenters. Of course, I like it when people agree with me. But disagreement is always educational. I am forced to rethink my positions and question myself.

I think I am right, but am I, really?

To give you an idea of this process, let me give you some examples.

Gemma

If there is one thing that is true, if the US and UK had upheld the Minsk protocols of 2015, Ukraine would still be its old self. They decided it was easier to militarise the country ... and blame the French and the Germans for having done this.

The Russians want all the oblasts (regions) that speak Russian, or at least a predominance of Russian speakers. Not that Ukrainian is that different, but that’s just the meddling of the US funded NGOs... that means Nikolayev and Odessa will become Russian.

What’s left of Ukraine is another matter. Putin spoke about this, saying “who wants to swallow a hedgehog?” He’s no fool, he knows the area around Lvov (Austrian Lemberg) is overflowing with US-funded Banderites. Who wants that? Does he really want to deal with another post-bellum Chechnya?

Answer:

As I have written many times, the Russian’s really don’t want Western-most Ukraine. They don’t eat hedgehogs.

I am sure they would rather give Banderite Ukraine to the Poles but the Poles, remembering the massacres of WWII, don’t want it.

But Putin cannot leave it in the hands of an infestation of Nazis.

He needs to de-nazify Western Ukraine . But how to do that?

The best way to handle this is what Mirkin seems to suggest — to let the Ukrainians west of the Dniepr do it themselves.

Let us keep in mind that the population of Ukraine is drastically reduced - and dropping every day, which makes it easier with the divide between ubermenschen and untermenschen clearer and clearer.

Fortunately, Putin is what I call a “quantum” thinker, which is a metaphor for someone who doesn’t think “either/ or”, with binary or linear logic . A “metaphor” because no one knows if quantum consciousness exists or not.

If you look at his history, it is clear that Putin’s mind works rhizomatically within a “field” of possibilities and probabilities, which he assumes cannot be predicted, only prepared for… Think of it as Heisenberg’s Principle in political or sociological terms. Hence his famous “gradualism” and his ability to achieve multiple goals at the same time - the SMO, economic progress and social revival.

Contrast that to any Western “leader”.

Each leader in the American Empire is locked into a conceptual box. The walls are irrational belief. Every now and then they climb out of the box but they shelter against the walls. All around them is a field of possibilities but they keep on looking back to the box, where they were comfortable and they thought safe. The box is cardboard but they think it is made of stone.

Xi and Putin are shaped by existential experiences in their youth -- in Putin’s case, the fall of the Soviet Union; in Xi’s case, the Cultural Revolution. For them the Uncertainty Principle is not abstract but concrete. At the same time, it opens up possibilities. In “Breaking Bad” the antihero Heisenberg “breaks bad” but Putin and Xi “break good” —they innovate, make connections that others do not, renovate, if not reinvent their societies, re-creating culture and civilization. All societies work with a from of “entanglement” at a distance — between people, not particles. That helps.

This is also what Chavez did in Venezuela, with huge success initially. That success challenges people in the “Western” box —keeping mind that the West/East and Left/ Right and Capitalism / Socialism binaries are no longer credible.

However, this kind of thinking is broad-based, and long-term. It is unsuitable if you think only in terms of immediate goals, as Americans do, focused on the next news cycle.

The “field” that thinkers like Xi and Putin deal with is dynamic, changing.

Here’s another comment that made me think….and find a reply for since I have heard exactly the same criticism from many others.

jsarnak

So I read your rant and I have to wonder about this Idea “Sure they have 5000 missiles in total, but only a few hundred launchers. So crowing about the number of missiles is like proudly proclaiming you have a thousand bullets when you have only one gun. “

I had responded to your idea of a James Bond/ Mission impossible event. I like to say you sit home and watch too many movies of cool kids doing all types of fabulous shit.

I mentioned they had 5000 “manpads” these are shoulder fired launcher/missile combination which does not need electricity or radar. So your 1 single gun theory makes no sense.

The U.S. did the same thing in Iraq, the same in Syria, The CIA shows up with planeloads of cash and they bribe everyone who has ‘hands on” ability to order a stand down. It took me a minute to realize why you can’t see the obvious and it is politics. You think because these people call themselves revolutionaries and “socialists” they would never sell out the “leader” Please give me a better reason than this, Apparently you also believe an air defense system is like the light switch.

I was a stringer during the Vietnam War. I was in Laos on my way to Cambodia during the “Secret War” where the US dropped more bombs than they did. I talked to CIA people, MI6, the Pathet Lao, the Vietnamese — outside of the war zone, US pilots preparing to bomb Laos. Of course, I am not a military person. Still, I am lucky to have survived Young and stupid as I was, however, I still got out of there as quick as I could!

My experience is marginal but led to a lifelong interest in military affairs and matters, weapons and covert warfare.

Near Nam Ou, Laos. Pathet Lao

For 40 years I worked off and on as an analyst and consultant in the international defense industry , liaising with the military and governmental agencies. So I am not totally uninformed. At least, I can say nothing is what it’s supposed to be in this worry world dedicated to death.

I found myself wrong about a lot of things and constantly having to revise my opinions which is why it is so helpful to have disagreement and criticism (thank you jsarnak!)_

The 5000 manpads are rounds for manpad launchers, without which they cannot be launched. The launchers can be used by just one person but normally require a two man team.

To be used effectively, they need secure communications to warn them of friendlies and also to connect them to radar units elsewhere to anticipate incoming hostiles since there is a very narrow firing window

One person fires but the other not only loads but handles communications and confirms the target. Keep in mind that while helicopters are slower than fighter aircraft they appear to move fast at low level, carry their own weapons and countermeasures and are hard to acquire in the darkness even with SA 24 night sights.

Why so few SA24s in Caracas? Because they are used to defend bases all over a very big country. The map shows some — but not all.

Once launched, the missile tracks fast and if you shoot at a friendly, as in fact the Venezuelans did recently, you can’t stop it. Oops! You need to get it right in just moments.

As for bribery, Venezuela is not Syria. Different society , culture, history. The CIA has been trying to bribe the Chavistas for years, with only marginal success. Of course, they will always find someone, but it’s not that easy.

In this case, there is confirmation of only one person who betrayed Maduro by revealing his location although details have not been disclosed.

Below is a video featuring Nima, Scott Ritter, and Pablo Escobar.

Ritter is ranting about the Russians and Trump— and I will deal with that rather interesting monolog another time.

Escobar confirms most of what I am saying although he relies on Brazilian informants. He does seem to identify the traitor who betrayed Maduro as the President’s own Security Chief who has been replaced but there is no confirmation of this and the likelihood is that it was someone lower down the totem pole.

Freddy Ñáñez, Venezuela’s minister of communications and information, announced via Telegram that Rodríguez had appointed Gustavo González López as presidential security chief and counterterrorism intelligence director.

This personnel change marks the departure of Javier Marcano Tabata, the former presidential security chief. The move is interpreted as a disciplinary action following the failure to secure Maduro and his spouse during a U.S. military operation to capture them.

Rodríguez expressed gratitude for Tabata’s dedication and loyalty but did not specify his current whereabouts or status.

Somehow I don’t think she would thank Tabata for his “dedication and loyalty” if he was the betrayer!

Rumor, rumors.

Even the best analysts - and Escober is one of the best, certainly better than me— can get it wrong.

Every indication, however, is that the Chavismo movement is looking for “traitors’, knowing that the CIA has been infiltrating Venezuelan society for years.

Chavismo is a populist movement formed to enfranchise the poor so they will be looking for a 5th Column in the usual places- those with the most to gain, in this case, the largely white-ish middle and upper class, as well as weak links in their organization, which every organization has.

The term “traitor” is now ubiquitous. Previously, they were called Western “sympathizers”

At the same time, Rodriguez is too smart to allow this to turn into a divisive witch hunt when the Revolution needs unity.

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