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Mark Anthony France's avatar

Caracas City occupies an undulating valley centre surrounded by hills and mountinous suburbs. The terrain in Caracas makes infiltration by low flying rotor craft possible and difficult to oppose.

For example, you could be armed with an IGLA Manpad hear approaching Helicopters but may only have a few seconds in which to aquire a target which will be obscured by terrain and buildings until it suddenly comes into view.

On top of the practical difficulty of acquiring a target, imagine attempting this under conditions of electrical blackout and electronic warfare attacks preventing any contact with your military chain of Command.

The other consideration will be the knowledge that any attempt to engage could result in overwhelming response from attack helicopters.

I salute those Venezuelan companeros who did fire off a few Igla's, several of whom were killed or seriously injured seconds later.

The good news is that Venezuelan people will be much better prepared to resist any future attack.

Gemma's avatar

"The good news is that Venezuelan people will be much better prepared to resist any future attack." - That, sir, is perhaps the only good news to come out of this sorry affair.

You know that the planning of this attack took a very long time; it is my hope that it was of such a character that it cannot be repeated easily.

Tom Welsh's avatar

I heard Andrei Martyanov quote someone with personal experience as calling Caracas "a city in a toilet bowl".

Mark Anthony France's avatar

Andrei prefers his Oil Capitals a bit flatter like his hometown of Baku - his Russian cynicism is to be expected especially when so many rumours of betrayal are in circulation about the 3rd January attack on Caracas

Tom Welsh's avatar

"Where there is much desire to learn, there of necessity will be much arguing, much writing, many opinions; for opinion in good men is but knowledge in the making".

- John Milton, “Areopagitica” (1644)

Julian Macfarlane's avatar

Thank you Tom. Old John knew his stuff.

Gemma's avatar

That is why I like a good conversation, where genuine opinions are given. The best conversations are like a fine wine, to be appreciated.

There are too many who simply peddle the media headline and think no further.

Tom Welsh's avatar

As Milton and many others have pointed out, open discussion with no holds barred (but courtesy observed) is the best way of mobilising the knowledge, intelligence and insights of a whole community. That’s how a university is supposed to work. People can go at it hammer and tongs, but when the debate is over for the time being they can smile, shake hands, and perhaps enjoy a glass of wine or a cup of tea together.

Top-class chess players take it a step further. After a game, whatever the result, they almost always conduct a “post-mortem”. They sit at the board just as when they were playing, and go through the game in the greatest detail. “If you had played X”, one says, “I had it in mind to try Y. What would you have done then?” There is no holding back of secrets - for the time being the contenders become scientists, seeking the truth of the board.

Julian Macfarlane's avatar

I learn best from dialog and dialectic.

Gemma's avatar

Well, when you say, "for the time being the contenders become scientists, seeking the truth of the board" - why is it that the UK thinks that Ukraine can still win the war?

Truth is a very powerful tool, and discussion of it makes it the more so. So why does the UK weaken itself with the kind of foolishness they are so good at? They can play tricks - as they did when Russia was in agreement with Ukraine at Istanbul in 2022. But that only works for so long. Untruths and propaganda only work for so long.

Tom Welsh's avatar

"...why is it that the UK thinks that Ukraine can still win the war?"

First of all, both "the UK" and "Ukraine" are abstract concepts that do not correspond closely to reality. Like all nation-states, they exist mainly in the mind. It is not "the UK" that thinks Ukraine can win, but a tiny group of politicians, civil servants, and media commentators. And unless they are actually raving mad, they don't really think that - they only say they do. Why? The leading politicians have invested their credibility in their many grave declarations that "we are with Ukraine forever", and that "Putin must be stopped". It has become what is crudely known as "a pissing contest". I won't say that Starmer, Macron and the others would rather die than admit that Russia will win - let alone that it has been in the right all along - but they are quite prepared for many others to die in that cause.

There is big money at stake, too. Mr Trump has publicly congratulated himself on making one of his celebrated "deals" to obtain masses of rare earths and other resources. Whether he is aware that all of those resources are now legally inside Russia, he doesn't want us to know - or his US voters.

As for "Ukraine" winning the war, "Ukraine" has never been more than a fragile, artificial apology for a nation-state. Since the coup d'etat of 2014 the government has been illegitimate, and for the past year or so Mr Zelensky's mandate as President has expired. Much of what was "Ukraine" is now legally in Russia, and much more may become so if the war continues. The only way it can end is for Kiev to surrender unconditionally, as Germany did in 1945. But first Mr Zelensky must be replaced, as Russia does not recognise his authority to negotiate.

There is much more to be said, but I don't want to be tedious.

Gemma's avatar

I live in the UK and know it to be one of the few countries on this planet that are not just an abstract concept. It is an island country, formed of a good few nations - not all of whom get along too well.

But then, they'd get along a lot better if the government was better at economics, but that would get tedious.

AS you will know, the Ukraine (as it stands today) was cobbled together at various times across the last 400 years, but mainly in the last 100. They have a large diversity of cultures who speak languages that are quite distinct from one another. That is not sustainable.

You are correct about the war-winning Ukraine. But there is no need to replace Zelensky; the legal head of the Ukraine is the head of the Verkhovna Rada. The Russians have said that they can deal with this person, even if Zelensky doesn't like it. The problem is that many Ukrainians are as crazed as the British establishment - and yes, they are clinically mad, even if they do not show this outwardly - and they will not capitulate. You can see this on the battlefield, at least amongst the crazies of the Azov battalions and their ilk, fighting to the last Ukrainian.

Tom Welsh's avatar

I, too, live in the UK and have been a British subject for over 70 years. But I am aware that the very notions of nationality and citizenships are just words. For example, should the food supply or - still worse - the electricity supply - fail for just a week or two, you would see that those notions would no longer have any 4real meaning for people living here.

mac Maclean's avatar

Pablo Escobar? You mean Pepe… perhaps

Julian Macfarlane's avatar

Oh my...,..is that dementia cutting in.... Wait, I have had this problem with names since I was 5! Come to think of it ....what is my name? Oh...the Toilet Guy. For the record, Pablo is the King of Cocaine. Pepe doesn't do coke I think. Maybe cola.

John Cary's avatar

Thank you Julian for both the explanation of the Manpads, and also the comments on traitors when there is so much rhetoric and attempts by various factions to create friction in the Venezuelan situation. Like you I peruse a lot of information trying to sort the chaff from the wheat trying to get a reasonable idea of the true situation. My favourite word is Pourquoi, and I always try to establish who benefits from a particular action (can't remember the legal term), I listen to what people say but judge them by what they DO. 🙏🙏🙏

Julian Macfarlane's avatar

"Pourquois" . Love that word. I used to teach French Canadian students in the university in Canada. That was their favorite word. Loved those guys.

John Cary's avatar

It's a great word, and it's a shame more people don't do it. As an aside I loved it so much I called my small hotel and café/bar in Thailand Cafe Pourquoi Down Under, which was a great conversation starter.

Spercepolnes's avatar

The US has, so far, admitted 7 casualties - 2 with gunshot wounds & 5 with 'minor shrapnel' wounds, so there was some counter activity going on .....

Richard V's avatar

Excellent rundown! Wasn't aware of your military exposure. Much respect. Love the photo of the Pathet Lao--what victory looks like! Thank you!

Julian Macfarlane's avatar

I liked the Pathets a lot. I spoke bad French. The spoke bad French. I wasn't so keen on the CIA's Hmong deathsquads and Thai mercenaries who killed a friend, and would have killed me too if I hadn't been too drunk to go off into the countryside. The Vietnamese in Lao were not as friendly as the Pathets -- all business, very professional. I was young and stupid but smart enough to get out of there fairly quickly. Nobody would buy my stuff anyway.

Stefano's avatar

I think you're right. It's amazed me how many of the analysts on the "independent" sphere immediately assumed the only way the Maduro operation happened was through corruption and being sold out. It's fairly obvious that this aspect should not be dismissed. It's like everything we have been told during the press conference (declaring victory) by the military general explaining the operation, the assets put in play, the videos of the bombings (and there's a video I saw online of a manpad being fired and then the location being pummeled by a helicopter returning fire), all this has been dismissed out of hand.

In comments elsewhere I've tried pointing out what surprise attack means, the differences between being on guard duty and being on the lookout for an attack in a state of alert, that (as you pointed out) the 5k launchers were probably spread out and are outfitted with specific teams, and everyone assumes there are 5k pairs of eyeballs (or 10k) on the lookout 24/7 (without bathroom breaks ready for this highly improbable event.

Personally I just assumed there must have been some internal help, after all the CIA has been active in Venezuela since before time began, and it certainly played a part, but we should also keep in mind American Special forces, like Delta or the special helicopter pilots, are extreme super soldiers. And if we consider all the tech at their fingertips, from satellites, cyber, integration with the air force and navy, for specific operations of this type, they're probably unstoppable.

This was a superbly conducted operation with probably hundreds or thousands of moving parts that was superbly coordinated, achieving total victory.

This doesn't mean I condone or support the USA and this operation. Unfortunately many people in the info war production and consumption space harbor resentment towards the USA and this clouds their judgement, consciously and unconsciously.

Stefano's avatar

By far the best mentally retarded claims I've come across stemming from this operation have been:

- this operation proves Russian air defense is shoddy (because they had some s-300 and buks).

- Venezuela had a $6bn Chinese air defense system which was a no show.

Unfortunately everyone forgets that besides the kinetic war, the info war has always existed (since at least WW1).

Gemma's avatar

Your info war actually began in Britain in the 1890s when they started the anti-German propaganda prior to starting WW1.

Stefano's avatar

You're probably right.

Although I suspect we can retrace backwards through history some form of propaganda and information manipulation in local newspapers in the 18th century and back to the printing press and we can throw religious texts into the mix.

Julian Macfarlane's avatar

Propaganda means propagating beliefs. So , you are exactly right. The printing press made all the difference.

Gemma's avatar

There is a problem with propaganda, especially as it is being used today by the US and UK. Their propaganda says that they will enforce a cease-fire in Ukraine...

The reality is that the Russians hold all the cards.

You can't bluff your way out of this one in the way they did with Minsk, or even worse, when the British pulled their prank at Istanbul in 2022.

Not that many journalists know about that...

Gemma's avatar

There are plenty of examples. The British have been the masters of deception and propaganda for centuries.

The problem for them comes when you hit up against the wall of Chinese history - they have a written history dating back to the 9th century BC. What's more, it's legible to most Chinese - and those in positions of responsibilities are expected to have a knowledge of it.

Which will include all those pretty little perfidies the British practised on them in the 1800s...

Marvin Gardens2's avatar

when I hear “traitor”, I ask "to *what*, exactly ?"

Gemma's avatar

Mr McFarlane, when you say, "As I have written many times, the Russian’s really don’t want Western-most Ukraine. They don’t eat hedgehogs. " I am aware of this, and it was on this account that I stated that " Putin spoke about this, saying “who wants to swallow a hedgehog?” "

Putin said this because Russians do not eat hedgehogs... that is why he said it!!

As a matter of fact, British gypsies (not the Romanian ones that clog up our housing stock these days) do eat hedgehogs. Apparently, they cover them in clay, bake them and once cooked, the spines come away in the hardened clay. However, I cannot imagine them being any more appetising than the grizzly bush tucker once seen in the markets of Central Africa.

When you say, "He needs to de-nazify Western Ukraine . But how to do that? " - I did make an attempt at this by referring to what had taken place in Chechnya after the war there. Many had been brain-washed and were cured of this nasty affectation.

I appreciate the fact that - in whatever way he might choose - Putin has an imposing intelligence and the patience to use it with the greatest skill and care. I could only wish my own politicians even came close to him.

In closing, you say, "Contrast that to any Western “leader”. Each leader in the American Empire is locked into a conceptual box." I lived and worked in Germany, and know well that the media did not represent their leaders well. Just today, I had some commenter state that Maduro was as bad as Merkel. So I have a question for you: why did the Germans elect her into office on FOUR successive occasions?

What's more, this in the face of a massive media smear-attack on her. What is going on in the media? What are you not being told - and as I recall, you were a journalist, so you must have some background knowledge of these things ;-)

Julian Macfarlane's avatar

Hedgehogs are small. Indians and native Americans eat porcupines, however. Considered a delicacy. Merkel was a moderate -- and middle-roader. People voted for her because of that. Now, the media ironically regards her as a sell-out to the Russians because of the MInsk agreements -- although she has stated that that was to give the Ukrainians time to prepare--although that statement may be a response to criticism that she was soft on the Russians. Middle-roaders often get smeared. Journalists do this because they are easy targets and they can submit their piece and get back to the bar quickly.

Gemma's avatar

What is most interesting about European leaders, and the German ones in particular, is how they are abused in the media. You say that Merkel wanted to give Ukraine time... it wasn't Germany that did the preparation, was it?

It was the US and the UK - who in having put Merkel in the spotlight, were able to this against her. This is a little more than a journalist needing a drink!

I didn't know that porcupines were a delicacy. I'm going to go and look for some in the supermarket. No, wait...

Sean H.'s avatar

Always enjoy reading your bits. I was surprised to learn you were, as was I during the Viet Nam Conflict Did you not meet the Hmong? I rather enjoyed them

Julian Macfarlane's avatar

One of best friends, an American veteran just died recently in Thailand where he had lived for many years unable to go home, still with shrapnel in his body from a mortar attack. Everybody has a story and it is always complicated to explain. Another American friend who spoke Lao and liked to carry a machine gun in a violin case in Vientiane ("what you got there, haha -- a machine gun?" in the bars) used to parachuted into the villages to gather intelligence. But he was gay and he liked the boys! Of course, he made sure those villages were never bombed.

Julian Macfarlane's avatar

I was friendly with the Pathets, not so much with the Hmong. However, not all the Hmong were political. In the end, they got a raw deal.

Noveskes Rock's avatar

If it was up to me to knock the MANPADs offline, I'd simply tell the using units that the batteries had expired and needed to be replaced. Of course, you can't get the new battery until you send the old one in (bureaucracy at it's best). Have all the batteries sent in NLT 31DEC and then just be slow sending out the replacement batteries. Guarantee that'd take 90% of the units offline easily. And you'd only have to bribe one guy in the logistics section - pretty cheap investment. And deniable too after the fact ...

Saludyrepublica's avatar

The media (...) states that about 150 aircrafts from USA participated in this hateful attack to Venezuela. I have no military experience but to my eyes it is VERY SUSPICIOUS that not a single MANPAD was able to shoot down one of the 150 helicopters that were flying low and slowly...

Julian Macfarlane's avatar

Read Mark Anthony France's comment above. Also the Chinook travels at 200 mph. Attack helicopters slightly slower. So "slow" is a relative term. Think 190 mph at 20 meters off the ground. HIlly terrain. How long do you have to react?

Ed's avatar

Helicopters were a small p🥍