Media out of tune

Oreshnik, Syria...what else?

The MAdM (Mainstream Additonal Media) is alive, not with the sound of music, but with a cacophony of conjecture, thanks to a tone-deaf punditocracy.

Not that that bothers me, since I am one of the few people in Japan ever asked to stop singing in a Karaoke bar.

Thanks to BMA

There is a a lot of chatter-natter about Oreshnik, with “experts” riffing out of tune.

Over at Moon of Alabama, Bernhard has an excellent article on Oreshnik, which - as I wrote before -- does not translate to "Hazel" or Hazelnut" but to "hazel switch" - a "switch" for disciplining bad kids. Please B, get that right. He devotes some space to Ted Postol's recent take on the Oreshnik strike - which he disagrees with. Postol has a long history evaluating weapons systems - but in this case, the system is something new, using advanced technologies and new concepts of physics, which Dr. Ted appears not to be up to date on, and neither he nor Daniel Davis are really competent to talk about — or to disagree with Putin’s assertions about Oreshnik in Kazakhstan

Postol is overly reliant on photographic evidence --and, in this case, he appears to be relying on photos from Western or Ukrainian sources, which naturally support their preferred version of events—namely, that the Oreshnik was no big deal, a warmed-over Scud — as opposed to what it really is— a breakthrough weapon offering the destructive power of a tactical nuke-cum-bunker buster.

Forget Postol — read the superb article on Black Mountain Analysis, which provides in-depth technical analysis of things “missilely“ that I have mentioned before in other articles in passing and to which Putin refersin recent speeches.

Thank you BMA!

BMA really stands for Best Media Analysis.

Irreverent suggestions for future articles.

“Everything you wanted to know about hypersonics and were afraid to ask?”

Or:

“What Mommy never told you about Hypersonic Missiles”.

Or:

“Is that bulge in your pants because you’re happy to see me - or is it a hypersonic missile?”

Disciplining the West

Silliness aside, the hypersonic capabilities of Oreshnik are the result of bleeding edge technologies in new materials, which handle— and use — the enormous heat generated by high mach speeds in the atmosphere. Not to mention other things.

As I have mentioned before, Russia has more than Oreshnik - the hazelnut switch — it has a now a whole farm of hypersonic weapons to chasten the naughty.

The first generation of hypersonic missiles is now being superseded by a much more advanced and improved second generation — of which Oreshnik is just an early representative. By the time the Americans have "Dark Eagle' ready, the Russians will be a decade ahead.

Syria —Looney Tunes

The MSM are unanimous that Assad's days are numbered in Syria, which would soon be safe for Turkey, the US and Israel and under the control of HTS led by Mohammed Joulani, who apparently survived Russian bombing to give interviews to CNN, now pretending to be a "moderate".

The old head-cutter now has a good hair-cutter.

His beard is trimmed. His wardrobe appears to have been done by the same people who do Zelensky's. Kharki brown. How cool!

He's OK now with Christians and Alawites and other Muslims he says. And, of course, Westerners. And Israelis. And your Mom. And dog.

Zelensky’s days in the Media spotlight are numbered — so we have Joulani. The West has Central Casting on speed dial.

He wear baseball caps too! Maybe even a white helmet. I like his makeup.

What's not to love? Sean Penn are ya listenin’.

But Joulani and Zelensky have more than the same stylists in common.

As in all things - follow the money -- Hey, hey, yay, yay…..CIA, CIA.... ! You know the song.

Hama

The MSM say that HTS has taken Hama. However, there's Hama the city and there’s Hama the province.

The Syrian army vacated Hama City, as they did Aleppo City. But not the province.

That means HTS has to garrison the city, but in light of their current PR offensive, so widely supported in the West, they will not do the kind of damage they did in the past. Torture and head-cutting will NOT be televised.

But HTS people who infiltrated the city, trying to blend in with the local population, can now be easily identified.

With substantial troops trapped inside big cities, HTS forces outside are weakened and vulnerable to Russian and Syrian air strikes—therefore suffering substantially more casualties on the ground than the Syrians. This attrition buys time for the Iranians and Iraq resistance to get their forces in place, despite reported (but unverified) efforts by the Americans to interfere.

I would add that it doesn’t really matter whether the Americans used A-10s or not to kill Iraqi fighters —the story is taken as fact in the ME and anti-American feeling intensifies amongst those who would see them gone.

In the meantime, the SDF has expanded its control in the East of Syria which could eventually put it at odds with what used to be its American patrons. It’s not a marriage made in heaven, given that the Kurds are Marxist-Leninists and Americans are…well… Americanists.

Russian Running out of….

Many analysts, even the excellent Simplicius and super-excellent Brian Berletic have questioned whether Russia isn’t running out of reserves and resources which it could use in Syria. This is what the MSM has been saying for years. “Russia is running out of…”

Maybe eggs, I think .

But Russia doesn't need troops on the ground with the Iranians and Iraqis coming to handle the ground war— although it takes time to get Iranian and Iraqi troops in place and set up logistics and communications and coordinate combined arms efforts.

The Astana process was followed by American sanctions and economic warfare, earthquakes and other problems but it allowed Syria to breathe again and rest after years of bloody war. The nation had barely avoided becoming another Libya. But now that the Syrians have to commit themselves to war again. And this time to really win.

So at this point, they have a largest burden of any of the combatants .

Flash in a Pan?

Western analysts tend to look down on Arab forces, but they can be formidable when properly motivated and led – as we have seen in the Iraqi war on ISIS—who did the heavy lifting to defeat .

Let us remember that at one point ISIS controlled 40% of Iraq! Extremist groups tend to do well in the beginning but not in the long term. The Iraqis took Iraq back. The Syrians will take Syria back.

Iraqis retake Mosul

The slow reinforcement of anti-Fakiri forces does give the impression to the West that HTS is winning. The story is hyped-uip and exaggerated by the media —who ignore the fact that groups like this lack logistics, materiel, numbers, air power, and in the long term, coordination.

The MSM ignore a lot of things. For example, that the Turkish campaign puts pressure on the Kurds – the YPG and SDF—which are dominated by the socialist libertarian Sufi Rojava movement. While Assad appears willing to offer the Kurds, a measure of autonomy —although not as much as they want — Erdogan wants every last Kurd gone – preferably dead — just as the Israelis want the Palestinians gone — preferably dead.

The HTS are ultimately Turkey’s proxies for the expulsion of the Kurds from Syria.

Do or die?

As you can see, for the Syrians and the Kurds, this conflict is very much “do or die”. The question is (obviously) what to do so as not to die.

That is also a question for the Russians whose bases were established a century ago in Syria and remain primary strategic assets necessary to Russian security .

Also, if the Russians let Syria fall, they will lose credibility throughout Asia at a time when they are leveraging that credibility to build BRICS and direct its development. Yes, dollar transactions have dropped below 50%!

So, while the Syrians and HTS play musical villages in the Syrian countryside and the Russian air force bombs troops and materiel and its drones buzz about—the war will go on – back and forth. Then suddenly HTS and Turkish mercs will face overwhelming odds. It will be done — and dead.

Right now, the Russians and Iranians can afford to take their time. They skipped ahead to read the last pages of this long novel. Erdogan doesn’t read.

The story line makes some things clear.

Russian resolve must strengthen.

Russia must take Odessa and Nikolaev on the Black Sea and balance Turkish control of the Dardanelles . The Russians must protect their bases in Syria at all costs. And they must remember that Erdogan is not Turkey and will likely disappear before the end of the story.

It’s a long read.

Chappy Arrives

Chappy arrived today— and I passed the “inspection”.

Chappy’s “Mommy” — the lady from the Shelter— was incredibly nice and helpful.

She arrived around noon and stayed about two hours as we signed documents and got Chappy’s medical records, which were extensive. His operation and medical procedures cost about $13,000. I am sure that the Veterinarians donated part of that. But still — it’s a lot —so I hardly begrudged giving the organization what they asked for — and a little more. Totally, with everything, just over $500.

I think that Chappy’s Mom figured out that I and my “wife” were not married — but she didn’t care. She only wanted Chappy to have a good home.

So now he is resting in a very large (it looks smaller in the photo) and comfortable cage — which tonight I have covered with sheets. Inside he has his much loved hammock! A scratching board. Toilet. Food and water and his favorite toy fish.

Ichi is just fine. I am sure they will get along just fine. Ichi needs a friend. And so does Chappy. Don’t you? I do.

Since Chappy is a feral cat, it will take time to earn his trust. But he is amazingly resilient and good tempered, despite all the pain and suffering.

I have to thank you all for your encouragement and understanding. And, of course, for your donations of coffees, which helped make this possible.

December’s special article is underway. Rewriting, rewriting, rewriting.

Please buy Chappy, Ichi, and me a coffee. Click HERE!