Mindless in Aleppo

Of is it "mindful".

Confusion in Syria

I was going to post on Syria last night, but there is such a lot of contradictory information about what's happening and a clear picture is only beginning to emerge.

If you're confused – that's natural. Just about everybody is.

I watched Alex Mercouris on the Duran a little while ago-- and didn't get any sense of clarity. Him too?

We are all getting various reports--from from western propaganda a.k.a. the Washington Post, the New York Times, the BBC and the usual suspects-- as well as from the Russian and Ukrainian media and bloggers on Telegram.

Who to believe? So many questions. So many contradictions.

The Media Minefield

IOt’s a new kind of minefield. Antipersonnel news. Blows up in your face.

If you've ever been in a war zone, you know how fast rumor propagates.

"Eyewitnesses" turn out not to have been actually witnesses at all.

Question them and you'll find that they didn't actually see what they say happened - -they heard about it from a friend who said they saw it happen --but actually didn't –rather, they heard it from yet another friend – and so on. Being “there”, does not mean being on the spot.

Gee, that’s what “journalists” do. Get together in the bar, drink, and trade rumors. Outside you can hear the distant sound of bombs.

Mainstream media wants quick stories and but MSM reporter usually don't want to get too close to the action —if they are not “embedded” - in which case they can their story from the military minder. Otherwise, they just go to the hotel lobby and look for a "local".

Wagner no more

Mercouris says that the Russians are sending in the Wagner group. Only trouble Wagner doesn’t exist anymore. Just sayin’.

What his “source” is talking about are the Russian blogosphere reports that the Africa Corps will be on the scene in due course. This corps is the Wagner Group reinvented , focused on security and military operations, eschewing all the extra stuff that Wagner got involved in to make Prigozhin rich.

They are no longer “mercenaries” – they are closely supervised by the MOD and the Ministry of Defense.

But at this point, they are not needed right now in the conflict – not needed yet -- maybe later.

The Syrians and the Russians and the Iranians face a 15,000 strong NATO Army, fully equipped with advanced weaponry, including tanks, drones, and lots of foreign operators, advisors and mercenaries. They are not going to engage them in set piece battles, especially urban warfare. Especially in Aleppo which has just been rebuilt.

Aleppo 2014

Nope. The Russians learn from their mistakes.

Bomb the enemy supply lines and home bases . Use a lot of drones for precision work. The newest Russian optical fiber drones are very, very, precise. Don’t leave your windows open.

The insurgent Army has been in the making for several years at least, equipped and trained by the US, the Israelis, and the Ukrainians — but it lacks air power and it’s overextended.

Reminds one – a little –of the army that NATO was assembling in Ukraine in 2022.

Weren’t Us!

Turkey claims it wasn't involved! And Assad must “listen” to the “popular opposition”—that is, the guys sharpening their knives to cut off the heads of people whose religions they disapprove of.

Turkey was not involved in training and supplying equipment perhaps— but certainly ing in providing logistical support, intelligence and protection for HTS cadres, and jihadist crazies of the ISIS persuasion from all over Asia, with a sprinkling of UkroNazis.

So you have the US, the Israelis, the Ukrainians and the Turks – all working together with Islamic extremists. What could go wrong? .

Israel was in the south, menacing Syria tying up Syria’s elite units. Aleppo in the north had been infiltrated by terrorists for some time and was only protected by semi-trained conscripts. From Turkish territory to Aleppo— a hop, skip and a jump.

What did the SVR know and when ?

Still, You would think that Russian Intelligence would have known something was going on.

Possibly they did. And if they did— there are (at least) two possibilities.

1. They trusted the Turks to honor the Astana Agreement which required them to keep the peace.That was the basis for their presence in Syria. Did the Russians count on the Turks knowing what a much stronger Russia and also stronger Iran could do to them, if they dared break their promises? So, maybe they figured the Turks would threaten an operation like this but not actually do it.

2. Or…maybe they figured the AAE - the American Axis of Evil would try something —with Ukraine collapsing , Russia was too tied up in the Donbass to do anything. and Erdogan just very stupid.

Up your Astana

In that case, the offensive might offer an opportunity for it to reshape the Astana Agreement,without Russia being the one to break it.

The Astana Agreement was forged back in 2019 on the basis of fighting 2012 ~2019.

At one point, the jihadis were murdering people int he suburbs of Damascus.

With a Turkey weakened by the defeat of its proxies (eventually) and abandoned by its “allies” (for sure) , it won’t have a lot of options.

Hezbollah has said it cannot send much in the way of troops to help – but that doesn’t mean they won’t. Maybe they are…ummm….”just sayin’”.

The Iranians have pledged full support. And they have a new and very hardline IRGC general taking over. Javad Ghaffari—known as “the Butcher of Aleppo”.

And the Iraqi Resistance is said to be sending thousands of fighters – probably with Iran updating their equipment.

The Russian Airforce has been bombing, wiping out command centers and convoys. And apparently the leader of HTS, Mohammed Jolani. Russia also has a new commander in Syria — General Alexander Chayko—who commanded Russian forces there in 2017. Russia regards its bases in Syria as strategic assets, which must be protected at all costs. They will spare no effort.

In addition, the Russians are sending a thousand or so drones – and operators.

Africa Corps will follow.

The Kurds

The Kurds first came to the aid of the SAA in Aleppo – then retreated. But they realize better than anyone that this offensive is directed primarily at them. Did they expect the Americans to protect them? Or the Israelis? It was the Americans and Israelis who set this up, with the Turks signing off to drive the Kurds out of Syria.

Now, Assad’s idea of a federal autonomy for the Kurds must be looking much more attractive.

What the Russians are Sayin’

There are so many points of view. Here are some of the better ones.

Political scientist, orientalist and Arabist Andrey Ontikov believes that the "massive" media campaign that accompanied the large-scale offensive by the Syrian opposition was aimed, among other things, at showing that Moscow is supposedly weak and cannot influence the development of the situation in Syria, and that the Russian army is not ready to intervene due to the hot phase of the conflict in Ukraine.

The key players [in the Syrian conflict] misread Russia's position. They decided that the Kremlin had reduced its presence in Syria to focus on the Ukrainian front, and that the time had come to "eliminate" Iran and Hezbollah.

In addition, rumors of coordination between Moscow and regional opposition groups to preserve Russian interests in Syria are part of a "psychological war" aimed at undermining trust between Moscow, Damascus and Tehran. Ontikov does not rule out that the current events are "retaliation" by the United States in connection with the conflict in Ukraine.

He also believes that the latest developments will lead to the beginning of a difficult fight against "military formations" in Syria, regardless of their relations with regional players. Moreover, the current "dramatic" events in Syria have disrupted the long-awaited settlement between Damascus and Ankara.

The appointment of a new commander of the Russian military group in Syria is part of the preparation for a new stage of the conflict in the region. There is a high probability that a large-scale confrontation will break out, and the political settlement will be put on the back burner.

Military expert Anatoly Matviychuk, in turn, believes that current events will damage relations between Moscow and Ankara and undermine their existing agreements as guarantor states. According to him, the Turkish side has not fulfilled its obligations [to Russia and Iran] within the framework of the "Astana" and "Sochi" processes, including the elimination of "terrorist groups" and ensuring access to the strategic international highways M4 and M5.

Moscow now has the power to reverse the recent opposition attack because it has reshuffled the cards militarily and politically. If the deal with Turkey fails to reduce tensions, a counteroffensive involving Syrian and Iranian forces will begin.

The Kremlin, experiencing "euphoria" after the successful use of "Oreshnik" and the restoration of control over 60% of the territory in the Kursk region, has become more than ready to resort to a military solution in Syria.

As if to corroborate Matviychuk’s opinion, Russian conducted hypersonic missile tests in the Mediterranean.

However, as usual, the Russians will take their time.

The “offensive” made good progress at first; and now has stalled, as Syrian elite forces enter the fray and the Russian air force kills hundreds of jihadis. So far 1600.

The best units of the SAA are now moving north .

The Russian and Iranians and Iraqis are making preparations.

Let us remember that the Russians do not care about territory when they fight – only strategic position. What they must do is wipe out the jihadis in home territory.

The Turks will not want to get in the way. They need the Russians more than the Russians need them. Russian supplied S400s will not protect them against Oreshnik.

The Americans won’t want to get in the way either. But….

If the Russian’s wipe out enough of the “moderate opposition”, the Americans won’t have much of an excuse to stay in Syria.

Please…… Chappy and Ichi need coffee, too!