31 Comments

"...there are (at least) two possibilities".

A third - and the first that I thought of - is that the Russians are doing exactly the same thing they did in Kursk oblast. Open the door, invite the suckers in; close the door, kill the suckers. Draw it out as long as possible so the commanders send in lots of weapons, supplies, and reinforcements.

Andrei Martyanov says that so far, the Ukrainians have lost in Kursk the equivalent of an entire Combined Arms Army - two Army Corps.

Why go in to the terrorists' lair to clean them out, when you can get them to come to you?

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That is more or less what I was trying to suggest in Option #2 . You put it much better I think. Succinctly . Thank you. Yes, the Ukrainians have lost now 40,000 troops-- not counting mercenaries.

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Some comments are critical of the article; mine (to your articles anyway) are always positively meant. I write comments in the hope of supplementing an excellent article. You cannot cover every little implication in such a long, comprehensive piece. I was just adding a feather to the headdress! 8-)

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So tens of thousands of Iraqis and Iranians will end up on Bibi's doorstep.

Did he think this through?

This looks like a good opportunity for both the Russians to clear out Syria, and the Resistance to ramp up their operations.

Looks like an own goal by The Empire.

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The Iranians and Russians won't attack the Turks and Americans -- just their murderist terrorist clients. With those eliminated, neither the Turks nor the Americans have any reason to be there-- except steal the oil.

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Israel's leadership is full of hubris, I imagine they see these militia as turning Syria into what the Americans like to call a "target rich environment".

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If a major war kicks off with Iran, they will be a significant force alongside the rest of the resistance, and were not present a week ago.

Put another way: if these folks started flooding into Syria, Israel would be very concerned. As it is, they have been given the opportunity to do just that, and will not be leaving anytime soon.

Hard to see how that strengthens Israels position in case of a big war that may be coming soon.

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I wasn't saying you were wrong about it being bad for Israel's future prospects, just pointing out that in their infinite hubris they're incapable of seeing it.

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I second BK's earlier recommendation. Kavork Almassian is the absolute best on Syria. Here's his X account: https://x.com/KevorkAlmassian And Alastair Crook on Judge Napolitano every Monday is indispensable. Syria, unfortunately, has been devastated by the Caesar sanctions. Plus they are blocked from their oil and wheat and their borders are all controlled by their enemies. Very tough situation. As for what Hezbollah, Iran and Russia can or will do, we frankly won't know till they do it.

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I think this is yet another case of geopolitical judo by the Russians. They have known all along that Erdogan is not trustworthy. The frozen nature of the conflict in Syria was always a time bomb. I think they LIHOP so that they now have a pretext to finish HTS off and complete the integration of the Kurds. If Syria and Russia can control the border with Türkiye HTS is finished. That would represent a massive win for the resistance over Israel, ensuring overland resupply of Hizbullah. It could also topple Erdogan which could be a mixed bag.

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I agree.

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Agreed. But with so much to lose, will the zionists up the ante?

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The Zionists clearly hoped to - but their losses against Hezbollah have prevented that. If they try they will be vulnerable to flank attack by Hezbollah.

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"If you're confused – that's natural. Just about everybody is.

"I watched Alex Mercouris on the Duran a little while ago-- and didn't get any sense of clarity. Him too?"

Wittgenstein had the answer: "Worauf kann man nich sprechen, darauf muss man schweigen".

Excellent advice, but not very practical if you are being paid to write a certain amount every day!

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Try Kevork Almassian on Syriana Analysis

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I do follow him.

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👏

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As the Syrian and Russian counteroffensive gets into gear the logistics of the operation will come into focus. Russia and Iran will be the combined quartermaster and unhindered operation of the key supply routes is imperative. Russia during the last military intervention in Syria used the sea route via the Bosporus to resupply its forces and the SAA. Türkiye in 2022 invoked the Montreux Convention to block the passage of warships transiting from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean in response to the Ukrainian war. However the West has actively used this route to supply Ukraine with military equipment in cargo vessels unobstructed by Türkiye docking at Romanian ports. Türkiye’s reaction to the transit of Russian cargo vessels with military equipment to the Eastern Mediterranean will prove interesting. Already the Western media is focusing on the Russian naval base at Tartus in Syria stating that Russia has evacuated all its ships following the Takfiri offensive although it seems the Russian Navy has just been testing hypersonic weapons in the Eastern Mediterranean. Supply routes from Iran to Syria are vulnerable to Israeli and US air attacks if this regional war intensives resulting in greater involvement by the Western powers

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Turkish interfere with Russian supply routes would prompt military protection by the Russian Navy and Air Force.

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Check out Kevork Almassian on syriana analysis for keen insight into Syria

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Bingo! The best on Syria, bar none.

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I need clarification about Hezbollahs current military strength, I had read that due to the several assassinations of key leaders and their supporters , Hezbollah had been weakened . Is this possible?

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They have not been weakened militarily,. On the contrary. They are being strengthened with thousands of new fighters (who take time to train) and a lot of new weaponry (which takes time to master.) So the "ceasefire" is very beneficial. As mentioned, their military power keeps the Israelis from trying to invade southern Syria.

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They've taken some hard knocks, for sure. But as they say, "what doesn't break you makes you stronger.!"

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As for the "New York Times", Taki had a nice rant today:

"I find the idea that a parent once gave a word processor to a son or daughter who now writes for the Times one of the most shocking cases of child abuse. Everything that has to do with the Times nowadays is abusive, especially where facts and the truth are concerned. Unleashing entirely fabricated stories has now become a specialty for the paper, the latest being one that headlines Trump’s win was a squeaker. I often wonder what goes through a hack’s mind when ordered to blatantly lie.

"Washington Post and Los Angeles Times hacks who put out hard left propaganda until earlier this month are now contemplating the importance of hearing from both sides. Not so The Noo Yawk Times or The Noo Yawker. Bagelites hate Trump and working Americans, hence the puppets at the helm of these two cesspools have ordered nonstop loathing to seep from their pages".

(But what does he really think?)

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Interesting.

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Are there refugee flows from this fighting or does the civilian population remain in situ.

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No refugees leaving Syria as before. Not yet. But fleeing HTS

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“… eschewing all the extra stuff that Wagner got involved in to make Prigozhin rich.”

I LOL’d. 😂

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why not watch Borzikkman or Hindustan Times (yes) on YT.

but then better use Brave webbrowser, it´s ads-free !

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Thanks for the tip.

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