Odd man out

Dissenting from the narrative

Shakespeare says “good luck lies in odd numbers”.

I guess I am odd man. And often “odd man out” . As is the case with the various explanations of the recent F15 FAFO.

An operation to extract uranium from a nuclear site in Iran would be huge and effectively require occupying a very large area for at least week, possibly several weeks, against resistance from a very large military force assuming that the Iranians blocked the access tunnels to the site with dirt and concrete and steel “plugs”.

This is something I know about. I once worked as a civil engineering assistant — roads, bridges, dams, and tunnels. Later in Japan, I worked with major construction firms on tunnels and excavation, writing papers for researchers.

Based on scenarios and analysis from early 2026, such an operation to steal uranium from a site such as Istafan would require (according to US military sources):

• An estimated 1,000+ U.S. service members, potentially including specialized elite teams such as Delta Force or SEAL Team 6, supported by Army Rangers or the 82nd Airborne Division for perimeter security.

• Nuclear Disablement Teams (NDTs) from the 20th Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, Explosives (CBRNE) Command would be necessary to handle the material.

• Heavy Equipment because sites are likely buried under rubble from previous strikes, heavy excavators and equipment would need to be airlifted in by helicopter, potentially requiring the creation of a temporary forward airstrip.

• The operation would need to take place under fire, with ground forces establishing a secure perimeter to protect against drone and missile attacks during a complex extraction that could take days or even weeks.

• The target material (roughly 440kg of 60% enriched uranium) is likely stored in 40 to 50 specialized cylinders, requiring transport casks and specialized equipment to remove safely.

What’s left out here?Maybe the very specialized equipment needed to open up the tunnels.

The primary goal of sealing tunnels will not be to make them permanently inaccessible, but to create a time buffer so Iran can delay an extraction force long enough to launch a counter-response. If the surrounding infrastructure were also destroyed with injudicious bombing, simple earthen blockages could require a year to be fully restored.

The logistical burden of a safe excavation is immense:

• Teams must work in full hazmat suits and rebreathers while operating heavy machinery, which drastically slows progress and causes rapid physical exhaustion.

• Excavators must ensure canisters of enriched material are kept physically separated. If they are bunched too closely during extraction, they can trigger a self-sustaining nuclear reaction, releasing massive amounts of radiation.

• Every piece of equipment and every person leaving the tunnel must undergo repeated, arduous decontamination to prevent spreading radioactive dust to the surface or transport aircraft.

Enriched uranium is typically stored in large, heavy metal cylinders. Extracting them requires loading the canisters into heavy-duty transportation casks (similar to those used for spent fuel) to prevent leaks during transit. The material would likely fill several trucks, necessitating a large, protected convoy or a nearby temporary airstrip for rapid aerial transport.

So, an operation to extract uranium from a nuclear site in Iran would be huge and effectively require occupying a very large area with resistance from a very large military force! Would a 1000 JSOC troops be enough against 100,000 Iranian troops. when the US does not have air superiority? (which it does only in Hegsethian wet dreams)

How likely then was the recent F15 FAFO 50 km from Istafan *Maybe closer depending who you talk to).

However, not the Internet is alive with speculation, many of which which appear to originate with Simplicius the Complicator.

Conclusion (after a long lead up)

We can make several speculative concluding points.

Boots-on-ground is already underway deep inside Iran, and just happens to be centered on the area where Iran stores its coveted uranium. There’s a very good chance Trump wanted to stage a surprise snatch-and-grab before announcing a major “victory” to the world.

Not likely I think. He can fire generals if he likes. But he could face backlash at the lower command levels.

Many have pointed out that this whole debacle does at least prove that Iran has been attrited to such a degree as to allow the US to now fly deep missions into central Iran, including with troops, which are able to get in and out without dying.

This should have been obvious to anyone, with increasing skepticism about US claims of air supremacy, keeping mind that the F15 and several other air assets were destroyed of damaged just before the CSAR operation.

The US had located the missing WSO officer on the ground but tried to lure the Iranians to another location. They appeared to have been only partially successful since the operation cost them dearly.

Some sources say at least 6 US servicemen died to save the officer. The US sas it blew up the C130s but the Iranians say they shot them down. That is in dispute. Who’s right? Both sides have reason to lie.

Maybe yes, maybe no,

Many others have their opinions including the always interesting Armchair Warlord on “X”. and B. at MoA. There is a lot of disagreement on details, especially “geolocation” of the WSO and the airstrip used by the C130s.

But the basics are simple—getting uranium out of fortified mountain site is not the same as getting Maduro out of Caracas, something you can do in an hour!

Larry Johnson doesn’t agree with my point of view: jhe has published on this, taking off from Simplicius and Anthony Aquilar who is an aircraft surgeon – not an operations specialist. I really wish LJ would spend a little more time doing research.

Aquilar says:

The rescue operation expanded to become the desired Delta Force, JSOC, SOF, ST-6 high-risk operation to ALSO seize the uranium in Iran; hence the need for so many operators, support, aircraft, etc. This WAS intended to be that operation. It failed.

As I just explained. “Mission Impossible”

Larry Johnson, as usual, triangulates .

Now let me tell you what I think happened.

The shoot down of the F-15E was not a ruse to disguise a planned Special Ops raid on the nuclear site in Isfahan. It was an unlucky event for the pilot and the WSO. Given the rank of the WSO — and the highly classified knowledge he has about US operations in the Gulf and in Iran — recovering him became a top priority.

The urgency of the situation resulted in the JSOC unit (I’m assuming they are based in Kuwait) being alerted to join the CSAR effort. The two C-130Js probably were already loaded with two AH-6 Little Birds.

I think it was pure serendipity that the missing WSO was located northwest of the rudimentary air strip that the JSOC unit had been planning to use to stage its raid on Isfahan.

Their familiarity with the area, based on their prior planning for the Isfahan raid, resulted in them being tasked to recover the WSO in lieu of the designated CSAR unit, which is manned by Pararescue Jumpers aka PJs (who, in my opinion, are the baddest asses in Special Ops).

This whole fiasco may be a blessing in disguise. The loss of a number of key air assets and the exposure of the remote airfield within shouting distance of Isfahan may compel the US commanders to cancel the planned raid to capture nuclear material from Iran.

While the US forces, like chess pieces, had been assembled and were in place on Friday, April 3rd, to carry out the mission against Isfahan, the Commanding Admiral at CENTCOM may be having second thoughts and is communicating his concerns about the Op-Sec compromise to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

I only know one thing for certain — we are not yet getting the truthful story about the rescue of the WSO on Saturday.

No, Larry US Forces were not in place Friday 3 to carry out a mission against Isfahan where the “baddest asses in Special Ops” would have got their asses handed to them in short order — as the military must know. Trump may be a fool but is the military. A dozen fired generals say ‘no’. Plus an aircraft carrier disabled by laundry and toilets.

If anything, this operation wa planned failure to get the attention of the public and put the lie to Trump’s pronouncements.

As for Iran, they performed superbly.

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