I'd like to note that i fully agree with your vision on the Russian Strategy and Tactics as been done in Donbass and Zaporizhia.
I want to add some more on the Kherson "front", from the beginning till now.
That builds a pile of local facts about terrain and "hidden intentions".
From that pile i ("Oracle" Cassandra) made my 60% probability "Prophecy"...
At the start of the SMO, Russian troops in the South were trying to find out how far they could come, before the Ukrainians organised some defense lines.
One group came from Russia proper into "Novorossiya" Strengthening the Militia in Donbass and targetting Mariupol on the way to the Crimea.
Another group started from Crimea in a surprise attack, that split partly west direction Kherson (they certainly had in mind to try to reach Odessa, there were 3 Amphibious-assault ships available on Crimea) and partly East towards Mariupol from the other side.
A special force was sent to repair the water supply from the Dnieper to Crimea north of Crimea.
My guess is that their main order was to see how far they could come.
I focus now on the Kherson branch.
Ukraine did not have an organised defense. That was sent there from Kiev. Drones were not so intensely used yet, and long range missiles had still to come, so Artillery was the main power. Both sides had mobility.
The Russian troops crossed the Dnieper river at Kherson. There was no real resistance there.
The supply for the Russian Bridgehead however, had to cross the river and soon the Ukraine troops were using Missiles (NATO) to attack the bridges and the Dam there.
The bridgehead was attacked in the North-flank. More reinforcements were to be expected. The Export of Grain and oil from central Ukraine via the black sea had to be maintained. High priority.
The NATO-Supply via Rumania had to be created still and attacking Mikolaiv (as the Russians indeed tried), was very troublesome because of the local rivers and roads/bridges.
At this point it became clear, that NATO would send a huge amount of Tanks, Mobility, Artillery, Missiles, Air-defences, anti-tank weapons and man-pads for an "offensive".
The Russian decision to stop at the Kherson- and Kharkov-fronts was difficult, but necessary.
After the defeat of the Ukraine "Offensive" at Robotyne, some facts were clear:
NATO was intensely targeting: all 3 Amphibious Landing ships in Crimea, invested heavily in the Naval war in the Black Sea. And supported the attempt of the Ukraine Marines to create a bridgehead on the East-Bank of the Dnieper near Kherson. They were using the advantage of being covered by artillery on the High ground Western Riverside, an advantage the Russian troops used all over the Donbass front, but could not do that here. It would also make a new attempt to cross the river from East to West very difficult.
NATO made clear it would not accept a surrender. Slowly they realised a defeat was coming.
Attempts to threaten Russia with empty guns and too heavy tanks failed.
Their priority seemed to be to keep a part of Ukraine as a base from where Russia could be Terrorised. This of course is unacceptable for Russia. So they were forced to fight till the last Ukraine soldier.
A political solution was the secret Polish offer to take over Galicia & Lviv as part of Poland with a deal that in that area no NATO-troops would be stationed. It still is an option.
But US Neocons made clear they did not want that. They were thinking about defending Mikolaiv + Odessa and the Black Sea coast, supplied from Rumania and Moldova and station NATO troops there. That could OFC be "volunteers and mercenaries" too.
As long there was a part of West-Ukraine in their hands, Grain-trade could then continue. Without that the economy of a "West-Ukraine" would be impossible.
OK. Choices to be made...
The Donbass-front is succumbing. Annihilating it is Priority 1.
Do the Russians then go North (Kharkov-Kiev, Kharkov-Zaporizhia or -Dnipro),
or Central (Zaporizhia-Dnipro-Kiev)
or West and in which order of priority ?
Going for the Dnieper river and take all territory East of it seems to be obvious. But is it ?
The Battle for the Cities along the river wil be heavy.
What about terminating the only source of income to The NAZI'S ? (the grain & Oil export) And cutting the supply line that is used to bring supplies to West-Ukraine ? (from Rumania)
Meanwhile preventing the NATO to make a Fortified strong-point on the Black Sea coast ?
But that has to be a surprise, to prevent NATO sending an army through Rumania / Moldova.
So:
Make a show of the Kharkov-Sumy Offensive, so Ukraine sends its reserves there. And then force a Dnieper river crossing North of Zaporizhia, leaving Zaporizhia in a Cauldron. The Russians were training a massive river-crossing exercise lately.
The rest i explained earlier. The target is to connect with Transnistria and cut the supply from north to Odessa. A Naval-Areal invasion South of Odessa will cut the Supply from Rumania, leaving Odessa in a Cauldron. No heavy fighting in the city. Just wait until the shells are finished.
I’ll never forget the footage of a television or internet reporter at the scene of the confusion of the 2014 Odessa massacre (or could have been Maidan-it’s been a long time). There were militants barreling through, and she had a microphone prone to get statements from what appeared to be militia of one sort or another rushing about when one big bruiser comes through, bellowing “Outta my face - outta my face - outta my face!!!” with a distinctly middle American / mid Atlantic USA manner of delivery. From that point on it was clear to me who the master manipulator of these troubles were.
Russian Ukraine is the richest part of Ukraine. Galicia, the home to the Banderites is the poorest. Galicia always coveted the wealth of the rest of Ukraine and in 2014 they tried to take over Russian Ukraine and force the Russians out. Suddenly there were a lot of Galicians in the South-- and of course there is CIA enablers!
Thank you Julian for the interesting and important details.
We can remember Mackinder's famous dividing line between the West and Eurasia, running down from the Baltic, right through the center of Ukraine, then following the Asiatic coast and ending in Palestine.
It was Brzezinski who said that Russia's empire depended entirely on control of Ukraine.
The Anglo-American-Zionist Empire has been intent on controlling this frontier since around 1900 when the Round Table took control. The Round Table was created by Cecil Rhodes, was overseen by the Rothschilds, and administered by "Milner's Kindergarten." One of Rhodes's goals was "to recover America for the British Empire," which was accomplished via creation of the Federal Reserve followed immediately by WWI. The final node of Israel was added via Balfour's Declaration.
Later, at the conclusion of WWII, the CIA moved immediately into Ukraine before Stalin's crackdown. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 Ukraine quickly became the battleground.
So the Empire must control Ukraine. The Russians know this is the existential battle.
The battle plan must include Odessa, always a Russian city, which is the linchpin. We will be watching closely.
All this is discussed in my book, "Our Country, Then and Now."
As an American nationalist, I advocate an America free of the Empire, with its own destiny lying ahead.
Very much enjoyed this analysis. There is much important stuff I simply don't know in order to make a judgement. Particularly about specific local geographies--river widths, depths and seasonal flows, marshes, road quality, rail lines, weather risks, contours of the land--that sort of thing. All this stuff is essential for making the proper tactical, strategic and logistical choices. It is common to look at a large map and make seemingly obvious, rational judgements--which in fact are not rational at all. What is incontestable is the long stated goal: denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine. Which no doubt will come to be.
These are very good points. Local geographies are difficult to assess. But term the "positional" aspect of warfare, which is usually ignored in western strategy. NATO tanks were a failure in Ukraine because they did not fit the terrain. Too heavy. Too demanding logistically. The Ukrainian's defensive grid thought to take advantage of local geography--but led to the UAF being bogged down -- literally.
Thank you for that great and thought-provoking article.
There are two genocides being carried out currently; Both of them by 'jewish' agents/operatives funded by, installed and supported fully by the Collective West - one in Muslim Gaza and one in Christian, Slavic Ukraine. Two birds, one stone? As nothing new is not also old, this brings to mind the role jews traditionally played as beneficiaries of various foreign invaders of various lands. Jews were the tax collectors, bailiffs and dog's bodies, not only throughout the Roman Provinces but later in Caliphate Spain and in the Catholic Polish colonization of South Eastern Europe (Galicia and other parts of now a vanishing Ukraine). Of course they also played a similar role in the Crimean region when that was still under Turkic control.
Not everyone has an interest in or the ability to understand history; the behavior on display is not different in kind to that the Jews played in the early Christian era.
I am glad to see someone else who has these insights about the depopulation taking place in Ukraine. I believe this is why Zelensky called Ukraine the "Big Israel." It's also why the Jewish Neocons running the Biden administration refuse to let go. It's all part of the plan.
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From Buy me a Coffee: I entered card, passed the not-a-robot test, clicked pay and it said "Please enter card details". But I did...
Thank you. The link was to academe.edu. I tested it once and it worked. Now I also get an error. Does Microsoft hate me? Or do I have Bidenitis? Omigod. First COVID19. Now BIDEN24? No matter. The link is to David Stone's excellent pdf on Svechin and military strategy, which is also the subject of my next special article. THANK YOU, AS ALWAYS!
Possibility 3. This is all Opportunistic based on v good intelligence placing groups of senior Ukrainian military in specific places (like that Hogwarts building recently).
Note how each attack generally gets written up as a dreadful attack on civilians though only a small number die (there is no Russian version).
These are very long distance missiles, and clearly very accurate. The targets must be high value. (And may include western early arrivals)
And therefore no implication for overall strategy in Ukraine.
I have been wrong a lot in my life! If I get anything right at all is because I have made so many mistakes! Fortunately, I have lots of people to challenge me and my ideas. Occupy, among them. And you too,. Thank you both.
Thank you Julian.
And thank you for using my analysis.
I'd like to note that i fully agree with your vision on the Russian Strategy and Tactics as been done in Donbass and Zaporizhia.
I want to add some more on the Kherson "front", from the beginning till now.
That builds a pile of local facts about terrain and "hidden intentions".
From that pile i ("Oracle" Cassandra) made my 60% probability "Prophecy"...
At the start of the SMO, Russian troops in the South were trying to find out how far they could come, before the Ukrainians organised some defense lines.
One group came from Russia proper into "Novorossiya" Strengthening the Militia in Donbass and targetting Mariupol on the way to the Crimea.
Another group started from Crimea in a surprise attack, that split partly west direction Kherson (they certainly had in mind to try to reach Odessa, there were 3 Amphibious-assault ships available on Crimea) and partly East towards Mariupol from the other side.
A special force was sent to repair the water supply from the Dnieper to Crimea north of Crimea.
My guess is that their main order was to see how far they could come.
I focus now on the Kherson branch.
Ukraine did not have an organised defense. That was sent there from Kiev. Drones were not so intensely used yet, and long range missiles had still to come, so Artillery was the main power. Both sides had mobility.
The Russian troops crossed the Dnieper river at Kherson. There was no real resistance there.
The supply for the Russian Bridgehead however, had to cross the river and soon the Ukraine troops were using Missiles (NATO) to attack the bridges and the Dam there.
The bridgehead was attacked in the North-flank. More reinforcements were to be expected. The Export of Grain and oil from central Ukraine via the black sea had to be maintained. High priority.
The NATO-Supply via Rumania had to be created still and attacking Mikolaiv (as the Russians indeed tried), was very troublesome because of the local rivers and roads/bridges.
At this point it became clear, that NATO would send a huge amount of Tanks, Mobility, Artillery, Missiles, Air-defences, anti-tank weapons and man-pads for an "offensive".
The Russian decision to stop at the Kherson- and Kharkov-fronts was difficult, but necessary.
After the defeat of the Ukraine "Offensive" at Robotyne, some facts were clear:
NATO was intensely targeting: all 3 Amphibious Landing ships in Crimea, invested heavily in the Naval war in the Black Sea. And supported the attempt of the Ukraine Marines to create a bridgehead on the East-Bank of the Dnieper near Kherson. They were using the advantage of being covered by artillery on the High ground Western Riverside, an advantage the Russian troops used all over the Donbass front, but could not do that here. It would also make a new attempt to cross the river from East to West very difficult.
NATO made clear it would not accept a surrender. Slowly they realised a defeat was coming.
Attempts to threaten Russia with empty guns and too heavy tanks failed.
Their priority seemed to be to keep a part of Ukraine as a base from where Russia could be Terrorised. This of course is unacceptable for Russia. So they were forced to fight till the last Ukraine soldier.
A political solution was the secret Polish offer to take over Galicia & Lviv as part of Poland with a deal that in that area no NATO-troops would be stationed. It still is an option.
But US Neocons made clear they did not want that. They were thinking about defending Mikolaiv + Odessa and the Black Sea coast, supplied from Rumania and Moldova and station NATO troops there. That could OFC be "volunteers and mercenaries" too.
As long there was a part of West-Ukraine in their hands, Grain-trade could then continue. Without that the economy of a "West-Ukraine" would be impossible.
OK. Choices to be made...
The Donbass-front is succumbing. Annihilating it is Priority 1.
Do the Russians then go North (Kharkov-Kiev, Kharkov-Zaporizhia or -Dnipro),
or Central (Zaporizhia-Dnipro-Kiev)
or West and in which order of priority ?
Going for the Dnieper river and take all territory East of it seems to be obvious. But is it ?
The Battle for the Cities along the river wil be heavy.
What about terminating the only source of income to The NAZI'S ? (the grain & Oil export) And cutting the supply line that is used to bring supplies to West-Ukraine ? (from Rumania)
Meanwhile preventing the NATO to make a Fortified strong-point on the Black Sea coast ?
But that has to be a surprise, to prevent NATO sending an army through Rumania / Moldova.
So:
Make a show of the Kharkov-Sumy Offensive, so Ukraine sends its reserves there. And then force a Dnieper river crossing North of Zaporizhia, leaving Zaporizhia in a Cauldron. The Russians were training a massive river-crossing exercise lately.
The rest i explained earlier. The target is to connect with Transnistria and cut the supply from north to Odessa. A Naval-Areal invasion South of Odessa will cut the Supply from Rumania, leaving Odessa in a Cauldron. No heavy fighting in the city. Just wait until the shells are finished.
60% probability... We will see.
Sander
I’ll never forget the footage of a television or internet reporter at the scene of the confusion of the 2014 Odessa massacre (or could have been Maidan-it’s been a long time). There were militants barreling through, and she had a microphone prone to get statements from what appeared to be militia of one sort or another rushing about when one big bruiser comes through, bellowing “Outta my face - outta my face - outta my face!!!” with a distinctly middle American / mid Atlantic USA manner of delivery. From that point on it was clear to me who the master manipulator of these troubles were.
Russian Ukraine is the richest part of Ukraine. Galicia, the home to the Banderites is the poorest. Galicia always coveted the wealth of the rest of Ukraine and in 2014 they tried to take over Russian Ukraine and force the Russians out. Suddenly there were a lot of Galicians in the South-- and of course there is CIA enablers!
Thank you Julian for the interesting and important details.
We can remember Mackinder's famous dividing line between the West and Eurasia, running down from the Baltic, right through the center of Ukraine, then following the Asiatic coast and ending in Palestine.
It was Brzezinski who said that Russia's empire depended entirely on control of Ukraine.
The Anglo-American-Zionist Empire has been intent on controlling this frontier since around 1900 when the Round Table took control. The Round Table was created by Cecil Rhodes, was overseen by the Rothschilds, and administered by "Milner's Kindergarten." One of Rhodes's goals was "to recover America for the British Empire," which was accomplished via creation of the Federal Reserve followed immediately by WWI. The final node of Israel was added via Balfour's Declaration.
Later, at the conclusion of WWII, the CIA moved immediately into Ukraine before Stalin's crackdown. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 Ukraine quickly became the battleground.
So the Empire must control Ukraine. The Russians know this is the existential battle.
The battle plan must include Odessa, always a Russian city, which is the linchpin. We will be watching closely.
All this is discussed in my book, "Our Country, Then and Now."
As an American nationalist, I advocate an America free of the Empire, with its own destiny lying ahead.
Also see this:
https://rickycook21.substack.com/p/globalists-plot-worldwide-genocide
IMO, America needs a new revolution.
Very much enjoyed this analysis. There is much important stuff I simply don't know in order to make a judgement. Particularly about specific local geographies--river widths, depths and seasonal flows, marshes, road quality, rail lines, weather risks, contours of the land--that sort of thing. All this stuff is essential for making the proper tactical, strategic and logistical choices. It is common to look at a large map and make seemingly obvious, rational judgements--which in fact are not rational at all. What is incontestable is the long stated goal: denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine. Which no doubt will come to be.
These are very good points. Local geographies are difficult to assess. But term the "positional" aspect of warfare, which is usually ignored in western strategy. NATO tanks were a failure in Ukraine because they did not fit the terrain. Too heavy. Too demanding logistically. The Ukrainian's defensive grid thought to take advantage of local geography--but led to the UAF being bogged down -- literally.
Thank you for that great and thought-provoking article.
There are two genocides being carried out currently; Both of them by 'jewish' agents/operatives funded by, installed and supported fully by the Collective West - one in Muslim Gaza and one in Christian, Slavic Ukraine. Two birds, one stone? As nothing new is not also old, this brings to mind the role jews traditionally played as beneficiaries of various foreign invaders of various lands. Jews were the tax collectors, bailiffs and dog's bodies, not only throughout the Roman Provinces but later in Caliphate Spain and in the Catholic Polish colonization of South Eastern Europe (Galicia and other parts of now a vanishing Ukraine). Of course they also played a similar role in the Crimean region when that was still under Turkic control.
Still, the most extreme modern genocides were in Africa -- orchestrated by the "West".
Not everyone has an interest in or the ability to understand history; the behavior on display is not different in kind to that the Jews played in the early Christian era.
I am glad to see someone else who has these insights about the depopulation taking place in Ukraine. I believe this is why Zelensky called Ukraine the "Big Israel." It's also why the Jewish Neocons running the Biden administration refuse to let go. It's all part of the plan.
Also see this for more of the plan:
https://rickycook21.substack.com/p/globalists-plot-worldwide-genocide
From Substack: "This Connect account cannot currently make live charges. The `requirements.disabled_reason` property on the account will provide information about why this account is currently disabled. If you are a customer trying to make a purchase, please contact the owner of this site. Your transaction has not been processed."
From Buy me a Coffee: I entered card, passed the not-a-robot test, clicked pay and it said "Please enter card details". But I did...
Yes, Substack promised to assign one of their tech people to my case I still havn’t heard from them!
The link in "This, however, is a new kind of war" appears sort of broken. This is what I get:
This XML file does not appear to have any style information associated with it. The document tree is shown below.
<Error>
<Code>AccessDenied</Code>
<Message>Access denied</Message>
</Error>
Thank you. The link was to academe.edu. I tested it once and it worked. Now I also get an error. Does Microsoft hate me? Or do I have Bidenitis? Omigod. First COVID19. Now BIDEN24? No matter. The link is to David Stone's excellent pdf on Svechin and military strategy, which is also the subject of my next special article. THANK YOU, AS ALWAYS!
Possibility 3. This is all Opportunistic based on v good intelligence placing groups of senior Ukrainian military in specific places (like that Hogwarts building recently).
Note how each attack generally gets written up as a dreadful attack on civilians though only a small number die (there is no Russian version).
These are very long distance missiles, and clearly very accurate. The targets must be high value. (And may include western early arrivals)
And therefore no implication for overall strategy in Ukraine.
Ukrainian accounts have been consistent since the beginning of the conflict in 2014. Out and out deceit. The most amazing, bold-faced lies.
Thank you Julian
Interesting, you admit you might be wrong, but than use the deserved freedom to create creative hypotheses
I have been wrong a lot in my life! If I get anything right at all is because I have made so many mistakes! Fortunately, I have lots of people to challenge me and my ideas. Occupy, among them. And you too,. Thank you both.
This is why I respect you.