Oreshnik and its kin
What it means
I was a little surprised today when I tuned into the Duran as I always do in the morning to see what the two Alex's were saying. Alexander was commenting on the possibility of multiple Oreshnik strikes in the spring. According to him a “confidential Russian source” had informed him that mass production of Oreshnik missiles were ongoing— along with variants optimized for different warheads, including thermobaric warheads.
This is hardly news since Putin himself has said publicly several times that mass production was underway – and also the development of variants.
In other words, Oreshnik – used previouslyl— was a test of just one example of a whole new class of weapons – something that Andrei Martyanov has also alluded to.
As Putin has said, these new weapons are a result of recent advances in materials technology but profiting from past technologies and continuous long-term research, allowing for fast implementation of production.
For more details you can go to the truly excellent Black Mountain Analysis.
As a class these weapons:
are almost impossible to intercept
are stealthy and difficult to track , much less target, after the boost phase, thanks to a plasma bubble
have multiple warheads and multiple warhead options, offering the capability of tactical nuke with just a few missiles
offer long range – all of Europe and from the Eastern Russia much of the Pacific and even Western North America.
Nothing new about this. Sorry Alexander. Your “confidential source” just reads RT.
Inert warheads for deep below ground penetration are one advantage. Thermobaric warheads for above ground wide area devastation might be another. Conventional explosives for precision, narrowly targeted destruction another.
Thermobaric attack Syria
Mercouris thinks that Russia will use multiple Oreshnik strikes on the Ukraine, with inert warheads targeting underground facilities and thermobaric warheads for area destruction to finish off Ukrainian resistance.
He bases this conclusion apparently on discussions with “military experts’ – but defers to people with experience in the US military. There are a LOT of ex-military people on line, the Good, the Bad, and Ugly.
Sadly, however, no one in the US military has experience in peer to peer war (as Martyanov points out ) and certainly none in the use of the new kinds of tactics and weaponry that Russia is using. In other words, there are no "experts". Your local barrista knows as much, probably more, than some retired colonel.
What does a guy who drove a tank in Afghanistan know about hypersonic missiles? Of the newest generation of wire-guided drones?
Mercouris also seems to assume that Putin wants a quick and decisive end to the war.--as Americans or the Brits might. As I have said before, Putin does not recognize the SMO as a “war” – but a military operation. Nor is he in a hurry. As a strategist, he takes things one step at a time. Heis building a civilization - which means he is definitely not American or British.
Putin is a careful, pragmatic gradualist— as we can see from the almost leisurely way he is picking apart the Ukrainian grid of defenses in the Donbas and disassembling Banderite military infrastructure one power plant at a time. The longer the war goes on, the stronger Russia gets, building on one success after another—unifying its people. Eventually, the Ukrainians themselves will turn on the Nazis — and their Nazi backers in Washington and London.
For the US, of course, the war is a quagmire—but they cannot admit defeat.
In the end, the war will be decided on the ground, with the incorporation of at least the best part of Ukraine as part of the Russian Federation or the Russian Union. Ukraine cannot be saved — but its people can. Those who remain, that is.
In a previous post, I mentioned Putin’s rat parable. The US is a very, very large rat. Putin does not want to corner it. It will die soon enough anyway of multiple diseases.
If the rat attacks anyway?…..
Oreshnik was never intended primarily for Ukraine. It is intended to provide an alternative to nuclear weapons, anticipating the possibility of that war with NATO sometime before 2035 which Belousuv was talking about. These missiles — as noted— can strike any part of Europe.
I doubt the Russians take US talk of negotiations any more seriously than a shrink does a patient in a mental hospital. .
Who believes what the US says anymore. anyway? The Americans say one thing and do another. They are consistent only in their madness.
The US always talks peace. But already, the Americans are creating new provocations with new, upgraded nuclear bombs stored on NATO bases all over Europe. Oreshnik’s real targets?
And the UK is talking up other measures such as naval interventions in the Baltics targeting Russian merchant ships.
The US is still supporting terrorist attacks on Russia and interfering with the internal affairs of other countries worldwide .
Now imagine if the Chinese started threatening American mercantile traffic in the Pacific!
Within a year, the Russians will be able to destroy every NATO base in Europe in less than half an hour-- AND their naval assets—and— with the S500 online – NATO’s surveillance satellite system.
Of course, the Russians are not saying this explicitly. They don’t want to corner that rabid rat.
But their new capabilities speak for themselves.
Chappy has a message….
Excellent analysis all around.
Regardless of bias too many are frustrated with the pace, whereas I’ve always argued that’s both intentional and vastly beneficial.
Again you wrote an excellent assessment with superb points. Putin's rats parable describe Miss Lindsey Graham and little Marco Rubio and their ilk to a T! It also describes EU "leaders".
Regarding the range of Oreshnik, the courtyard of the Pentagon could be struck by Avangard penetrator.