Prigozhin bewilders Simplicius - as he does many others. But to understand what's happening you read between the lines. Prigozhin is playing the fool--there is method in the madness.
The mass media, with the exception of government funded media, survive by selling advertising. Advertising (PR) is a form of propaganda as Bernays wrote and to be effective must synch with cultural narratives and assumptions. So there is both bottom-up and top-down control. Hitler did not make German people anti-semitic. They were already anti-semitic.
I had a short speculation but true opinion piece that both ends of the conspiracy were true - very similar but not as detailed as sonar21. So Wagner Group posted on the TG channel that Prigozhin did work for Putin at least to shake nuts and monkeys out of different trees. He has since said no to his knowledge on setting up Wagner North in Belarus but not to count it out. I suspect it will be much longer to find out if any Westerners pushed from the back side. What a weekend!
Putin has been trying to restructure and reform the FSB for years now. Like many governmental agencies, the FSB was corrupted by power grabs and bureaucratic maneuverrng after the demise of the KGB. I suspect that he is using Prigozhin to shake the tree.
I agree with Larry Johnson. I posted yesterday morning in a # of places that I believe it was maskirovka, given Prighozin's track record.
All eyes were on Prighozin, again. In the meantime:
Russia, under the cover of a "coup" rearranged significant forces, all toward the north. Wagner forces are now reassigned to Belarus. Chechen & significant regular Russian forces are now within striking distance of Karkov. (Don't know how true, but I read somewhere that Prighozin's 25,000 were outnumbered 4:1 by Russian troops.)
Traitors have likely been flushed out. Look who has remained silent throughout. Shuigo? Gerasimov?
Last I read, Moscow continues under martial law presumably to enable expeditious arrests of identified traitors. Everywhere else has returned to normal.
Video shows Prighozin treated as a hero in Roskov.
A Canadian poster on MOA reported that loud laughter & partying could be heard coming from the Russian embassy in Canada.
I've now read in a number of places (Tom Luongo, I forget where else) that Prighozin made off with $6B. Note US history of buying traitors (eg paying off Iraqi generals to not fight).
When I heard about these events on Saturday morning, I wondered what this new Progojine sketch was all about. However, if indeed Wagner's forces shot down 6 Russian aircraft, it was a sketch gone wrong. Or one sketch too many from Wagner's boss (who has no military skills whatsoever).
Even if Larry Johnson's explanation is very pleasant (and presented with a great deal of humor), I doubt very much that Prigozhin's fake coup d'état was staged by Moscow, i.e. Putin. Prigozhin went berserk for reasons we can only guess at: not paid enough? obsessive dislike of the Russian high command? delusions of grandeur? whatever. He went berserk, attempted a coup de force, but soon realized the predictable failure of his moment of madness. Putin's immediate reaction brought him back to reality.
On the other hand, Putin, skilful strategist that he is, quickly turned the situation to his advantage. His televised intervention on Saturday certainly had a strong impact on the Russian population, and in his favor. What's more, he took the opportunity to reinforce internal security measures, which should enable Moscow to neutralize more domestic enemies, without having to resort to martial law measures. It may also have enabled him to move troops to Rostov or other areas without attracting the attention of NATO's ISR.
Even if Putin wasn't happy about it, he came out of this tragi-comic episode stronger than ever, contrary to what the cretinous NATO media are trumpeting. The fool is Prigozhin, who has played the clown for too long and forgotten that the King's fool must not think he is the King - even when he thought he was a great warlord, he was on the razor's edge. His exile to Byelorussia is, in my opinion, a chance to save his skin, in view of the service he has rendered, but once Wagner has been dismantled one way or another, he'd better keep his head down.
In fact, the fact that he's getting out of Minsk is already giving all the strategists of the misnamed collective West and its proxy, Ukraine, a headache.
Wagner was already being "restructured" before P's "mutiny". I think Larry is right. I just can't choose which scenarios to apply. Wagner's raison d'etre was use outside Russia With the four oblasts in the south now part of Russia, the PMC could be better used elsewhere. Belarus is the perfect place. As Lukashenko's Praetorian Guard. The KGB recruited P because of his "bad boy" image and he has built on that. Simpllicius notes P's "lies" --but they are obvious lies - - not taken seriously in Russia - just in the West. They are not the kind of things that could be used to foment any kind of rebellion, as Simplicius seems to think he "might" have been doing. P has made very clear -- all along that he is absolutely loyal to Putin. You can take a man out of the KGB but not the KGB out of the man.
It seemed likely to me that the information on Wagner's destruction of 6 Russian aircraft was erroneous, as Putin's leniency towards Prigogine was incomprehensible. But I still have trouble with the concept of staging. Maybe one day we'll know what's behind the cards, but I'm inclined to think that Prigogine crossed a red line and realized it very, very quickly. President Putin was just as quick to exploit this fault, and the SMO is stronger for it in my opinion.
I agree with you and Larry. The picture you posted at top is worth a thousand words and explanations, along with other posted videos showing civilians in Rostov loving and interacting with Wagner troops. They are proud of their warriors. No insurrection. So different in the US where civilians should be cautious and defensive towards our own military or FBI. No need in Russia to keep repeating the slogan “Support the troops” where they are considered of and for the people and Motherland.
In the US. the government takes very poor care of its veterans and discharged all those opposed to experimental injections. In the US, if we were to protest too loudly, the military would be used against us and police have military gear and weapons to control us. Same with Western European countries where we see military tactics used against the people who protest what their government is doing ( UK France)
The picture is good but Patrick Lancaster's video from the centre of Rostov-on-Don as Wagner pulls out is really interesting. Patrick even has a 10 second "interview" with Prigozhin---a couple of shouted questions and Prigozhin's responses as the Prigozhin SUV slowly drive through the cheering crowd. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qvFQJEyjwA&t=12s
It looks like everybody loves Wagner, loves Prigozhin, and loves Putin.
Actually there was bloodshed it seems. 6 helicopters and a plane were shot down by Wagner troops being attacked by Russian troops. The Russian commanders will no doubt suffer the consequences.
There are rumors of this on Telegram -- and of course -- CNN. But not evidence.There have been no deaths. You can't shoot down aircraft without killing at least one or two people.
I think I agree with Ritter and Judge, and also with Yves Smith's eventual take . This is a failed coup attempt organised by the usual incompetent MI6 types, and Ukraine, and US agencies too, all of whom have been fooled by their own propaganda which assumed strong Russian civilian support. Unfortunately the opposite was true, Wagner troops in Rostov laid down their arms when they realised what they were expected to do, the population saw it for what it was - treason. The MOD may be able to use it to make stealth preparations for the next stage etc. Putin may have been weakened internally, but only if he clearly underestimated it, and cannot use it to strengthen the Kremlin position.
One of the best and funniest things has been The Guardian's jubilant take on things, especially the scumbag Luke Harding. Totally wrong about everything. Reminds me yet again to read it in the bathroom mirror when discussing politics.
Personally I think that Jan 6 was the Trumpian version of Spring Break, only not in Miami or held in the Spring. I wager fewer people died Jan 6 than during Spring Break.
One may doubt that any substantive conclusions can be drawn for some time.
Prigozhin to Westerners is very much a confection of Western Media and Western Media takes feeds from the Intell. Agencies and other fantasy script writers.
In any case, does anyone check the geography? Rostov-On-Don to Moscow ~ 1,100 kms.
Easy news days for Western Media.
___________
Meanwhile . . . Washington's Ukraina Grandioznaya Skhema - The Graveyard of This Empire.
The Collapse of The Russian State - has just been cancelled.
Again!
"Just when will The Russian State collapse, mommy & daddy and Manifest Evil swept away like the Floods of Ancient Egypt?" Well, well. That is proving a difficult question, Kiddies. Our Geo-Political Stoichiometry isn't working like it used to.
On the other hand, The Community of Nations, that other land that hangs out somewhere near DisneyLand, otherwise known as The West, is looking none too flash.
Factually, their Big Ukrainian Project is in The Dog House and nothing will save it, not even prayers to their benevolent God.
________
BTW - Just how does anyone know that Yevgeny Prigozhin was the President's chef? MI6 fairy stories?
Like, all centres of political power have their own exclusive kitchen staff and source food under controlled conditions.
Larry's post was quite humorous. To summarize Sunday's media headlines, Putin's grip on power is so fragile all will come tumbling down any minute. Not surprisingly, I find myself in the Johnson/Macfarlane/Christiforu/Mercurious camp as usual. The west will overplay its giddy enthusiasm for Putin's demise, and he will come out the stronger for it. A less than "24 -hour coup," no bloodshed and a peaceful end. Remarkable for such a failing government as Russia.
Not just humorous -- right on the mark. However, b at MoA predicted the "insurrection farce' would be over in 24 hours -- and he was right. In the meantime, the Russians have moved troops in several areas, re-positioning. Magician's trick. Distract people with one hand while doing something else with another
There are so many complications here. Prigozhin is a wheeler and dealer -- a survivor -- and a successful one. He was put in place by the MoD with which he does a lot of business - basically to replace the extremist very right wing Utkin, who was sidelined. So Progozhin was considered "moderate", controllable. He is also ex-KGB and he knows what happens to traitors. His outbursts are full of obvious exaggerations - what Simplicius calls "lies". If he is a liar-- he is a very stupid one, saying things he KNOWS will be proven false. His mutiny was just a few rank & file people, treated as heroes and patriots in Rostov. PTSD is unlikely. I have seen lots of THAT (and have it as well). Psychosis? Alex at the Duran thinks so (I think). Or, just a pattern of "bad boy' behavior encouraged at first, which escalated and got a bit out of control? The convoy to Moscow? Delusional. Or just threatened. Never got on the road I think. The main thing is that the whole thing was over soooooooooo FAST. Prigozhin has charges against him, which are not being acted upon. He's off to Belarus. Guess what? Prigozhin, like Putin was a KGB man. And the KGB lives on in Belarus in its original form.
Absolutely agree to all your remarks. Stack readers who comment understand that there are many layers and perspectives to every big situation. Sadly, half the population in the West only sees things at a 2D level based on what authority figures tell them. And there the sheeple downgrade the collective unconscious. Simplicius says the Russian people who have had many traumas and challenges are growing into a remarkable culture. Very fitting to recent events.
As in all world class drama fiction and reality mingle so one doesn’t know which is which I’ve noticed .
I didn't used to be able to see it. It takes a lot of practice and the assumption that all for profit media are controlled.
The mass media, with the exception of government funded media, survive by selling advertising. Advertising (PR) is a form of propaganda as Bernays wrote and to be effective must synch with cultural narratives and assumptions. So there is both bottom-up and top-down control. Hitler did not make German people anti-semitic. They were already anti-semitic.
I had a short speculation but true opinion piece that both ends of the conspiracy were true - very similar but not as detailed as sonar21. So Wagner Group posted on the TG channel that Prigozhin did work for Putin at least to shake nuts and monkeys out of different trees. He has since said no to his knowledge on setting up Wagner North in Belarus but not to count it out. I suspect it will be much longer to find out if any Westerners pushed from the back side. What a weekend!
Putin has been trying to restructure and reform the FSB for years now. Like many governmental agencies, the FSB was corrupted by power grabs and bureaucratic maneuverrng after the demise of the KGB. I suspect that he is using Prigozhin to shake the tree.
I agree with Larry Johnson. I posted yesterday morning in a # of places that I believe it was maskirovka, given Prighozin's track record.
All eyes were on Prighozin, again. In the meantime:
Russia, under the cover of a "coup" rearranged significant forces, all toward the north. Wagner forces are now reassigned to Belarus. Chechen & significant regular Russian forces are now within striking distance of Karkov. (Don't know how true, but I read somewhere that Prighozin's 25,000 were outnumbered 4:1 by Russian troops.)
Traitors have likely been flushed out. Look who has remained silent throughout. Shuigo? Gerasimov?
Last I read, Moscow continues under martial law presumably to enable expeditious arrests of identified traitors. Everywhere else has returned to normal.
Video shows Prighozin treated as a hero in Roskov.
A Canadian poster on MOA reported that loud laughter & partying could be heard coming from the Russian embassy in Canada.
I've now read in a number of places (Tom Luongo, I forget where else) that Prighozin made off with $6B. Note US history of buying traitors (eg paying off Iraqi generals to not fight).
Lots of smoke. Lots of mirrors. And the magician saws a girl in half. "Seeing is believing"? LOL
Truly fascinating how many different opinions occurred within the analysts scene during the recent events 🤣👍
I think your article is also very close to my few pieces.
When I heard about these events on Saturday morning, I wondered what this new Progojine sketch was all about. However, if indeed Wagner's forces shot down 6 Russian aircraft, it was a sketch gone wrong. Or one sketch too many from Wagner's boss (who has no military skills whatsoever).
Even if Larry Johnson's explanation is very pleasant (and presented with a great deal of humor), I doubt very much that Prigozhin's fake coup d'état was staged by Moscow, i.e. Putin. Prigozhin went berserk for reasons we can only guess at: not paid enough? obsessive dislike of the Russian high command? delusions of grandeur? whatever. He went berserk, attempted a coup de force, but soon realized the predictable failure of his moment of madness. Putin's immediate reaction brought him back to reality.
On the other hand, Putin, skilful strategist that he is, quickly turned the situation to his advantage. His televised intervention on Saturday certainly had a strong impact on the Russian population, and in his favor. What's more, he took the opportunity to reinforce internal security measures, which should enable Moscow to neutralize more domestic enemies, without having to resort to martial law measures. It may also have enabled him to move troops to Rostov or other areas without attracting the attention of NATO's ISR.
Even if Putin wasn't happy about it, he came out of this tragi-comic episode stronger than ever, contrary to what the cretinous NATO media are trumpeting. The fool is Prigozhin, who has played the clown for too long and forgotten that the King's fool must not think he is the King - even when he thought he was a great warlord, he was on the razor's edge. His exile to Byelorussia is, in my opinion, a chance to save his skin, in view of the service he has rendered, but once Wagner has been dismantled one way or another, he'd better keep his head down.
In fact, the fact that he's getting out of Minsk is already giving all the strategists of the misnamed collective West and its proxy, Ukraine, a headache.
Wagner was already being "restructured" before P's "mutiny". I think Larry is right. I just can't choose which scenarios to apply. Wagner's raison d'etre was use outside Russia With the four oblasts in the south now part of Russia, the PMC could be better used elsewhere. Belarus is the perfect place. As Lukashenko's Praetorian Guard. The KGB recruited P because of his "bad boy" image and he has built on that. Simpllicius notes P's "lies" --but they are obvious lies - - not taken seriously in Russia - just in the West. They are not the kind of things that could be used to foment any kind of rebellion, as Simplicius seems to think he "might" have been doing. P has made very clear -- all along that he is absolutely loyal to Putin. You can take a man out of the KGB but not the KGB out of the man.
Afaik, there is no evidence of any air craft shot down.
Correct. No one has died.
It seemed likely to me that the information on Wagner's destruction of 6 Russian aircraft was erroneous, as Putin's leniency towards Prigogine was incomprehensible. But I still have trouble with the concept of staging. Maybe one day we'll know what's behind the cards, but I'm inclined to think that Prigogine crossed a red line and realized it very, very quickly. President Putin was just as quick to exploit this fault, and the SMO is stronger for it in my opinion.
I agree with you and Larry. The picture you posted at top is worth a thousand words and explanations, along with other posted videos showing civilians in Rostov loving and interacting with Wagner troops. They are proud of their warriors. No insurrection. So different in the US where civilians should be cautious and defensive towards our own military or FBI. No need in Russia to keep repeating the slogan “Support the troops” where they are considered of and for the people and Motherland.
In the US. the government takes very poor care of its veterans and discharged all those opposed to experimental injections. In the US, if we were to protest too loudly, the military would be used against us and police have military gear and weapons to control us. Same with Western European countries where we see military tactics used against the people who protest what their government is doing ( UK France)
The picture is good but Patrick Lancaster's video from the centre of Rostov-on-Don as Wagner pulls out is really interesting. Patrick even has a 10 second "interview" with Prigozhin---a couple of shouted questions and Prigozhin's responses as the Prigozhin SUV slowly drive through the cheering crowd. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qvFQJEyjwA&t=12s
It looks like everybody loves Wagner, loves Prigozhin, and loves Putin.
In the US you don't get to take selfies with the Riot Police.
Whoever thought War was logical?
Every talks as if it everything about it has reason.
The line between reality and what is imagined is so blurred as observed by the use of psycho ops.
It makes perfect sense what you say.
Who is sane?
Prigozhin had lapsed into insanity with the violence as he’s human.
Forgot War has a human element?
He isn’t charged with treason and given sanctuary in Belarus by Lushenko
It’s high drama unlike anything I’ve seen.
You're right -- it's drama. Theater. Of maybe a miniseries for TV. And our sponsor is?
It's high drama because all of it is based on deception - actors. This is truly an information war.
I replied .
And Pryghozin has been turned.
Actually there was bloodshed it seems. 6 helicopters and a plane were shot down by Wagner troops being attacked by Russian troops. The Russian commanders will no doubt suffer the consequences.
There are rumors of this on Telegram -- and of course -- CNN. But not evidence.There have been no deaths. You can't shoot down aircraft without killing at least one or two people.
Now there is evidence. Some people DID die!
Aside from rumors, any evidence of shootdowns?
I think I agree with Ritter and Judge, and also with Yves Smith's eventual take . This is a failed coup attempt organised by the usual incompetent MI6 types, and Ukraine, and US agencies too, all of whom have been fooled by their own propaganda which assumed strong Russian civilian support. Unfortunately the opposite was true, Wagner troops in Rostov laid down their arms when they realised what they were expected to do, the population saw it for what it was - treason. The MOD may be able to use it to make stealth preparations for the next stage etc. Putin may have been weakened internally, but only if he clearly underestimated it, and cannot use it to strengthen the Kremlin position.
One of the best and funniest things has been The Guardian's jubilant take on things, especially the scumbag Luke Harding. Totally wrong about everything. Reminds me yet again to read it in the bathroom mirror when discussing politics.
m
Luke Harding is the Guardian's Prigozhin. But with less honesty.
We still wallow in the fallout of the Jan 6 hooligan mob. If one wants to compare crisis management, it would seem Putin is the superior leader.
Personally I think that Jan 6 was the Trumpian version of Spring Break, only not in Miami or held in the Spring. I wager fewer people died Jan 6 than during Spring Break.
Vlademir Vlademerovich Putin absolutely IS a superior leader. The "leaders" of the USA/NATO are maroons.
One may doubt that any substantive conclusions can be drawn for some time.
Prigozhin to Westerners is very much a confection of Western Media and Western Media takes feeds from the Intell. Agencies and other fantasy script writers.
In any case, does anyone check the geography? Rostov-On-Don to Moscow ~ 1,100 kms.
Easy news days for Western Media.
___________
Meanwhile . . . Washington's Ukraina Grandioznaya Skhema - The Graveyard of This Empire.
https://les7eb.substack.com/p/washingtons-ukraina-grandioznaya
Some people have remarked on the distance from Rostov on Don to Moscow. A lonnnnnnnnnng road trip for a coup. LOL.
The Collapse of The Russian State - has just been cancelled.
Again!
"Just when will The Russian State collapse, mommy & daddy and Manifest Evil swept away like the Floods of Ancient Egypt?" Well, well. That is proving a difficult question, Kiddies. Our Geo-Political Stoichiometry isn't working like it used to.
On the other hand, The Community of Nations, that other land that hangs out somewhere near DisneyLand, otherwise known as The West, is looking none too flash.
Factually, their Big Ukrainian Project is in The Dog House and nothing will save it, not even prayers to their benevolent God.
________
BTW - Just how does anyone know that Yevgeny Prigozhin was the President's chef? MI6 fairy stories?
Like, all centres of political power have their own exclusive kitchen staff and source food under controlled conditions.
Larry's post was quite humorous. To summarize Sunday's media headlines, Putin's grip on power is so fragile all will come tumbling down any minute. Not surprisingly, I find myself in the Johnson/Macfarlane/Christiforu/Mercurious camp as usual. The west will overplay its giddy enthusiasm for Putin's demise, and he will come out the stronger for it. A less than "24 -hour coup," no bloodshed and a peaceful end. Remarkable for such a failing government as Russia.
Not just humorous -- right on the mark. However, b at MoA predicted the "insurrection farce' would be over in 24 hours -- and he was right. In the meantime, the Russians have moved troops in several areas, re-positioning. Magician's trick. Distract people with one hand while doing something else with another
Thank You, Julian...
I like this possibility, I estimate it on 45% probability, (there are very much more possibilities).
The next in line is him being victim of PTSD, or as some suggested a "Psychosis".
It could even be there are more than 1 "truths", some mixture of parts of hypotheses.
Future will show us.
Sander
There are so many complications here. Prigozhin is a wheeler and dealer -- a survivor -- and a successful one. He was put in place by the MoD with which he does a lot of business - basically to replace the extremist very right wing Utkin, who was sidelined. So Progozhin was considered "moderate", controllable. He is also ex-KGB and he knows what happens to traitors. His outbursts are full of obvious exaggerations - what Simplicius calls "lies". If he is a liar-- he is a very stupid one, saying things he KNOWS will be proven false. His mutiny was just a few rank & file people, treated as heroes and patriots in Rostov. PTSD is unlikely. I have seen lots of THAT (and have it as well). Psychosis? Alex at the Duran thinks so (I think). Or, just a pattern of "bad boy' behavior encouraged at first, which escalated and got a bit out of control? The convoy to Moscow? Delusional. Or just threatened. Never got on the road I think. The main thing is that the whole thing was over soooooooooo FAST. Prigozhin has charges against him, which are not being acted upon. He's off to Belarus. Guess what? Prigozhin, like Putin was a KGB man. And the KGB lives on in Belarus in its original form.
Absolutely agree to all your remarks. Stack readers who comment understand that there are many layers and perspectives to every big situation. Sadly, half the population in the West only sees things at a 2D level based on what authority figures tell them. And there the sheeple downgrade the collective unconscious. Simplicius says the Russian people who have had many traumas and challenges are growing into a remarkable culture. Very fitting to recent events.