Putin and the Sultan

There are only two of us left among the leaders. Right now, it’s just me and Vladimir Putin. I am not saying this because one of them is me. But I have been in office for 22 years, nearly as long as Mr Putin. The rest are gone. Recep Tayyip Erdogan

What can one say?

This statement is not just hubris, not just vainglorious. It tells you – or should tell you-- a lot about how Erdogan’s mind works—specifically what he deems “leadership”. That interests me because that is what the current special article that I am writing is all about.

Erdogan is no “modern leader”!

Erdogan sees “a leader” as one who survives. In his case, 22 years; in Putin’s case, longer. Of course, Erdogan almost did not survive! . Reports are that the Russians warned Erdogan of assassination attempts set up in 2016 by Turkish rebels and the CIA. Russia denies this, of course.

Putin’s position has grown more and more secure over the years.

Putin is pragmatic, a patriot, dedicated to the success of his country – empathetic and principled. His popularity rests upon the perception of the often cynical Russian people that he is uniquely honest. He keeps his word.

He is a gradualist because, unlike almost any “leader” you can think of he knows he doesn’t know-- and that things change continually—so he needs to learn and adapt if he is to serve his country. Since he was a young man – that is all he wanted to do – to serve.

Erdogan serves only himself, and his illusions of a neo-Ottoman empire with himself as Caliph. He lies and cheats. As the political landscape changes, the looks for opportunities to exploit. His promises are like tissues when you have a cold. Blow and throw them away.

Putin understands that everyone is different. Erdogan thinks everyone is like him. So it is all right to lie and cheat.

So Erdogan can never really understand Putin-- although Putin understands Erdogan. He expects Erdogan to try to betray him.

We can see that in the Syrian situation, which turned out so very different from what most people, including me, expected.

It appears now that Putin anticipated events well in advance. I am sure he found it all very distasteful. At the same time, however, he adapted - pragmatically —accepting a new game with new rules and new players.

Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman ambitions were predictable. Also predictable were Erdogan’s need to maintain good relations with Russia- -and especially Putin. American goals were obvious - as were Israel’s.

Russian could not defend Assad’s Syria if Assad would not – that was clear. But the Russians used their air force with good effect, keeping their promises. Then gave the ungrateful Assad asylum, Oddly, Erdogan respected that. So did Jolani and the HTS.

Assad’s army collapsed. And now Syria belongs to Turkey – it is Turkey’s problem. And a big and bloody problem it will be.

Even if Jolani is trying to morph into something different – as he insists for CNN – his troops are still Islamist extremists –including not just Syrians but Uighurs, Turkmen, Chechens, Uzbeks, and Ukrainian mercenaries, among others. How will he maintain order? Already there are many reports of killing and murders, particularly of Alawites.

The Israelis certainly have no faith in him or HTS nor in the Turks, which is why they have carried out as many as 300 air strikes to take out air defenses systems and weapons depots.

Erdogan doesn’t care — but he wants to drive out the Kurds— who are protected by the Americans.

Thus, Syria has become Turkey’s Vietnam.

And Turkey will fail in Syria as the US did in SE Asia. There will be no pipeline from the Oil States through Syria to Turkey. No “Greater Turkey” .

Russia will keep its bases in the Latakia and Tartus, in the Alawite enclave and finish off Ukraine.

Who benefits in the long-term?

Russia for one.

Syria fell because Assad trusted Western and Turkish “good’ will and rejected help from Russia and Iran. Russia, however, kept its promises and did what it could. Putin has learned that trust must be earned. And if you are betrayed (as he says in the video) that is because you have chosen the wrong friends.

That is a lesson for the world— which indeed has only two remarkable leaders - -Putin and Xi Jinping.

Ichi and Chappy

Ichi came out of hiding today. He is completely back to normal. Back to his usual sweet self. And Chappy is adjusting very fast. He now meows to me when he wants something like food or water or his toilet cleaned. He understands what I am — a servant!

Still, it will take time….. I figure a couple of weeks before I can take down the cage.

Special Article

My special article is coming along. Of course, I have read all the usual “how-to’s” for wannabe “leaders”…..LOL. The stuff everyone already knows from high school.

But gifted political leaders who actually change things for the better are amazingly rare. Much rare than, say, gifted scientists or artists. Why? No one has really good answers.

Luck, of course, plays a huge role.

As do genetics.

But it would seem that these people’s accomplishments are a result of not only genetic gifts, but nurturance, community, and external events. There is usually both a moral and spiritual dimension to their form of creativity. Which is why Erdogan will go down in history as a failure.

An interesting aspect to them is the manner in which they reinvent themselves for the better.