Recently, Ritter did an interview with Nima in which he talked about Russia negotiating with the West over Ukraine.
This interview was brought to my attention by by my commenter Occupy Schagen—who is a constant inspiration.
If you did your homework last night, you will have watched a very interesting interview with Rigger—which is as emotional as it is informative.
I respect Scott Ritter hugely for his honesty and integrity. But as a military analyst, he is wrong as often as he is right – in other words, no better than most people, his military background and his extensive service as an intelligence officer notwithstanding.
In fact, sometimes things,like experience in a certain field, get in the way of understanding events that do not fit the scenarios for which a person was trained.
You can see that very clearly when Ritter talks about Odessa, predicting the unlikelihood of Russia attempting to take Odessa because it would require a huge number of “boots on the ground”, while “exposing the flanks” of the Russian army.
Or so he says.
The best military-trained analyst I can think of is Brian Berletic, who was a Marine Corps mechanic and studied military science after leaving the military.
Ritters analysis assumes the Russian “operational art”—which is constantly adaptive re-orienting itself to change is similar to American strategy which is rooted in the past and relies on more or less fixed scenarios.
The Russians just don’t do war as the Americans do. That is why they refuse to call their operation in the Ukraine a “war” —but rather an “SMO”. It isn’t that kind of thing.
We’ll get to that in a moment.
Assumptions
Ritter makes a lot of assumptions as most people in the West do.
Among those is the notion that Trump will change things by putting Europe on its own, making it pay its own way—and therefore making European nations stand on their own two feet — independent of “Mommy” (as Ritter puts it).
Let’s be clear —Trump is not promising to disband NATO — just suck more blood from European economies by making them “pay their own way” — which presumably means buying more American weapons and supporting the US MIC. In fact, Trump does not want to change American hegemonic policy at all.
The US doesn’t want an “independent” Europe. It is not “Mommy” - it is more like a dominating “Daddy” telling Junior he has to pay rent and work in Daddy’s business to pay back the money Daddy paid for his education. Daddy beats his wife and kids.
He also labors under the belief that Putin wants the war over soon and sanctions lifted —because of the economic burden— and Russia’s emphasis on BRICS—and the overall cost to Russia.
Nobody likes war —or the idea of sanctions, which represent economic warfare — but Putin has often attributed Russia’s recent growth and new economic direction - including its involvement in the new alliances at the core of BRICS to the challenge of both American sanctions and the SMO.
If you read Putin’s recent speech at Valdai you realize that Putin thinks the West is a lost cause— it is looking East and South - not to the West whose imperative remains hegemony. He is willing to talk but he does not trust the Western Collective. As he has famously said he can forgive almost anything — but not betrayal.
Western diplomacy is one long list of lies, broken promises and betrayals.
Will Trump be any different? That is perhaps why he has not, despite what the MSM says, talked to the Donald yet.
All in all, Ritter is very American in his thinking.
Russia is not in a hurry to end the war or return things to “normal”.— not that there ever was a “normal”. And Putin is going to take his time while presenting the West with a fait accompli.
Russian Progress
Ritter acknowledges ever more rapid Russian progress in retaking Donbas. Next in line, he says will be Zaporoshie and the Kherson, with an advance towards Odessa.
Then he says Russia wants— and needs— a treaty to end this gradualist “war”—which it has been winning for a long time— as Russia reinvents itself with progress not just on the frontlines but at home in all areas.
But then Ritter shifts his point of view.
Russia is “tired” — i t just wants the war to be over— the SMO is causing economic hardships for Russia – including a 20% inflation rate --and more importantly, Russia doesn't have either the will or the means to undertake an offensive to take Odessa.
Some corrections are in order — the Russian inflation rate, projected at 6 to 7% ,is above 8%. Interest on deposits is 20%. (Here in Japan we have 3% inflation, with bank interest 0%)
The high inflation is driven by heavy investment in infrastructure, particularly in the Far East and Asia, labor shortages, and consumer demand. If anything, the SMO has had a positive effect on the economy. But Russia has measures in place to reduce the effects of inflation, while taking advantage of its beneficial effects for industrial growth,
Inflation is mostly negative in a stagnant economy— like that of the US. But Russia is still on a roll so while it has some undesirable consequences it is positive overall.
Ritter doesn’t get this. But his interview is full of contradictions or ambiguities.
Strike Odessa?
For example, while acknowledging the success of Russian operational art in the Donbas, Ritter says Russia doesn't have either the will or the means to undertake an offensive to take Odessa!
"Russia doesn't have the means to do it." he says, flat out.
He then suggests that Russia would have to mobilize a new army to take Odessa, while, as mentioned exposing its “flanks” to attack. Flanks? LOL. Attack by whom? By the time Zaporoshie and Kherson have fallen, there won’t be much left of the UAF in the South.
In any event, Russia’s strategy, as I have indicated, is long-term and gradualist, dismantling the Banderite’s “Maginot Grid” of fortified villages and towns, one at a time, wearing down the UAF and putting the lie to Western propaganda.
In Kursk, exchanges of KIA bodies indicate Ukraine is losing 15 times as many men as Russia - not counting mercenaries—and men simply blown apart to pieces by FAB bombs— which means in effect 17 to 20 times
Once Kursk is over, the Russians will be position to take Sumy and Kharkov and threaten Kiev and the West bank of the Dniepr, forcing the UAF to send more forces from Zaporoshie and Kherson — and Odessa.
Why Russia won’t quit anytime soon
Who dances with the devil?
Russia tried…and learned.
Its “Atlanticist” phase was a long time ago—after the fall of the USSR, when Russians had none of the things that the West had.
Now, they have those things and they don’t need the West ,
So….
From this moment on, the special military operation must become explicitly extraterritorial. This is no longer an operation to regain our lands and punish Nazis. We can and should move deeper into the yet existing Ukraine, towards Odessa, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Nikolayev. Towards Kiev and beyond, .
There should be no limits in terms of the borders of the Ukrainian Reich that some recognize....;The terrorist operation carried out by the Banderites must remove all taboos from this topic...We will stop only when we consider it appropriate and beneficial. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev. Tass. August 8, 2024
Medvedev, a former president of Russia was once a pro-Western modernist if not an Atlanticist. And found himself played, if not betrayed by the West, as in the case of Georgia and Libya.
Perhaps he learned from his mistakes. Perhaps he is just an opportunist. No matter — he has reinvented himself -- as. in fact many former Atlanticists in Russia have. American support for terrorism and genocide has shown the true face of American policy.
In the minds of Russians therefore Ukrainian terrorism is also American terrorism.
Yes, Putin says he will talk to the West. Talk is cheap. Agreement is not.
He will do business, which means bargaining. But, in the case of Ukraine, will the West bargain? What can the West offer other than all of Ukraine itself, plus reparations?
Odessa
Ritter says that Russia wants the SMO to end so much that it is likely to agree to a treaty that gives it the oblasts that have voted to join its federation but leaves the Ukraine a sovereign but neutral state, with demilitarized zones.
That treaty would leave Odessa and Mykolaiv as parts of Western Ukraine.
Why?
Because of the military challenge of taking large cities — which everyone since Sun Tzu know very well.
Odessa, he says, may be Russian historically but it “belongs to Ukraine”.
Which raises the question, “What is the Ukraine”. People in the West seem to think it is one country—that there is a single “Ukrainian” identity— when, in fact, it is a multiethnic community.
Putin’s Minsk accords recognized this and tried to resolve ethnic conflict through federalism —which was rejected by the Banderites, who come from the extreme West of Ukraine - “extreme’ both geographically and ideologically - the extreme “blue” in the map.
Most Ukrainians, including Zelensky speak Russian and “Ukrainian” itself is really a Russian dialect. But the Westernmost Western Ukrainians — Galicians- are neo Nazis.
The 2010 election was a battle between Yanukovych, who was pro-Russian and Tymoshenko who was pro-EU, pro-NATO, and eventually— after they took power— pro-Banderite.
Odessa voted against ultra-nationalist Ukraine - the extreme West. It is also multiethnic — Russia, Greek, Jewish, Cossacks and others —but all speaking Russian—and now being forced to speak “Ukrainian”. It supported a neutral, pro-Russian Ukraine.
Despite what Ritter indicates, Putin has talked about the importance of Odessa to Russia many times – not just as a Russian city – but as an historically important if not iconic Russian city, a keystone of Russian civilization with its 190 ethnic groups and therefore symbolic of the nation’s diversity. He cares.
Putin believes in the principle of self -determination. That’s one of the important reasons why he sent forces into Ukraine in 2022 to assist the newly independent republics of Lugansk and Donetsk to exercise their rights to choose, even before Russia was really prepared.
It was a moral duty.
People in the southeast peacefully tried to defend their stance. Yet, all of them, including children, were labeled as separatists and terrorists. They were threatened with ethnic cleansing and the use of military force. And the residents of Donetsk and Lugansk took up arms to defend their home, their language and their lives. Were they left any other choice after the riots that swept through the cities of Ukraine, after the horror and tragedy of 2 May 2014 in Odessa where Ukrainian neo-Nazis burned people alive making a new Khatyn out of it? The same massacre was ready to be carried out by the followers of Bandera in Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Lugansk. Even now they do not abandon such plans. They are biding their time. But their time will not come. Vladimir Putin . On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians
Putin will not abandon Odessa He cannot. He will offer them the right to choose.
Donbas, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporoshie were once Ukraine too — and also multiethnic. They voted to join Russia because the Russians offered them the freedom to use their own language and preserve their own customs and religion. Multipolarity is not just for nations.
How do you think Odessa would choose if it could?
After the Donetsk and Ukraine east of the Dneipr, Sumy, Kherson and Zaporoshie, the UAF garrison in Odessa will be cut off and isolated. They will be looking for a way out.
As it stands, they are not popular with the locals.
Ukrainian authorities have attempted to blame the unrest, including arson attacks on recruiters' cars, on Russia, claiming suspects are being promised money or other rewards by the FSB via instant messengers.
But statistics and a fresh crop of sociological surveys suggest …that Ukrainians are not only becoming increasingly tired of the conflict with Russia, but hostile to authorities, especially after the passage in May of a controversial law designed to strengthen mobilization, which obliges all men aged 18-60 to carry military ID with them at all times, allows summons to be served, and does not provide for demobilization. Combined with President Zelensky’s move this spring to lower the recruitment age from 27 to 25, the measures have proven a mental Molotov Cocktail encouraging resistance for Ukraine’s fighting age male population.
Odessans trying to escape to Russian Transnistria
Putin has said he favors referenda throughout all of the Ukraine— but only after the current regime has surrendered. He also wants a democratic government or governments elected with safeguards to make it fully representative.
The Americans apparently are planning to offer” democratic ” elections — which they would organize and control and manipulate in their favor— as they have done elsewhere— even in their own country. They don’t like representative governments — only obedient ones.
The West still labors under illusions of superiority—even in the face of cultural collapse. But it doesn’t matter what the would-be Hegemon wants anymore —it is not just Ukraine that has been defeated – it is NATO and the US!
The Russian “war” gas never been with Ukraine – but with the collective West --who have proven themselves pathologically contemptible and untrustworthy— and continue to do so even now over and over again.
Western lies have cost the lives of up to a million Ukrainians and perhaps 100,000 Russians. Let's not even think about Gaza and Lebanon!.
So, Russia will not make a big push towards Odessa - although it could, if it wanted.
Odessans have only to look to the east at the Black Sea port of Mariupol with its new hospitals and schools, booming business and beautiful new residential developments.
What would you choose? Freedom and prosperity, Or life under fascist thugs and oligarchs who want to send you to war with a gun that you don’t know how to use and probably doesn’t have bullets.
Russia will use the carrot, not the stick.
In fact, it needs Odessa, or at least, a military base there.
Odessa is crucial to maintaining peace in the Black Sea — balancing against Western machinations and encroachment in Moldova, Bulgaria and Romania, now apparently defeated in Georgia.
Ritter, however, is correct. There will be a treaty —but after an unconditional surrender—as was the case in Japan. Russia will determine the terms of the treaty, offering the people of Ukraine a deal they cannot refuse — freedom, real democracy, and a better life.
The Dutch thought they could buy Manhattan with a few trinkets. The Americans think they can buy the world with Big Macs and Starbucks. The Indians felt they got the better part of the deal because they believed no one could own the land—that it belonged to Nature. They may have been right.
Human nature is another thing that cannot be bought. It is just what it is.
So no one can can buy hearts and minds— at least not for very long. You can brainwash people but the waters of reality rise and when you are drowning you may change your mind.
Vampirism writ large
The West are vampires. The rich suck the blood from the poor - at home and abroad.
But a vampire cannot enter unless you invite them in!
So don't invite .
Scott doesn’t quite get it
Compare Ritter’s interview to Brian Berletics’s recent podcast.
Ritter thinks that Trump will change things. He won’t. He doesn’t get the US foreign policy works. Berletic does.
What you can learn from dogs
I learned a lot from dogs as you can see from this post on diet and longevity.
One of the differences between dogs and wolves it that dogs are not obligate carnivores as cats are- meaning they mimic human diet, which is omnivorous. In fact, wolves are not obligate carnivores— in the wild they eat a 60-40 diet — 60% meat; 40% plant food. Dogs have pretty much the same ratio. Most people assume something different. So that fellow above just wants some steamed broccoli ! In addition to your Big Mac.
Paleo people ate…well…everything. That helped when the climate changed and they had to move to sedentist life, farming and animal husbandry and so on and tribal societies.
They could survive on sub-optimal diets — for a while. Heights of males dropped from an average 179 cm to below 165 cm. While Paleo adults who survived to the age of 25 or older would survive to about 70 or older. Neolithic people rarely made it to 40. The difference was eating as you were meant.
Give a Malamute good buddies, something fun to do (like pull a sled) and good food— and he is happy. So how is that different from you?
My trans dog/ cat Ichi says buddies are great. Food is great. Fun is great. Pulling sleds….now way!
I stopped listening to what Mr Ritter was saying when he was repeatidly stating he was a true American patriot (which is fine). That no one could convince him the American Marines weren't the best fighting force in the world. The American Marines haven't fought anyone anywhere since WW2 that could match them with equipment & manpower. It's the same old American Hollywood fantasy of American military might. America are serial losers in conflicts on their own. Sure they know how to spin their defeats with ridiculous excuses & reasons. But a defeat is a defeat. What did American Marines achieve in Vietnam, Korea or Afghanistan. Hardly peer adversaries but they were defeated. The American military wouldn't have a clue how to fight Russia in a ground war. They'd be crying to use nukes after the 1st week of being decimated. America couldn't take the losses it's military have never experienced anything like what is going on in Ukraine. The scale, the violence, the attrition plus the bad weather. Would totally destroy them. I'm very confident of this, as I'm from a British military family. My both Grandfather's hated American soldiers. They were grateful for the aid in weaponry. Which my country has just finished paying for. But the amount of British men lost winning back areas the Americans failed to hold onto. Made both of them very bitter. Americans have the terrible habit of talking a good war, until they experience it coming to their shores. It will never change.
Great analysis. You only missed the one thing that might get Russia to stop short of absolutely crushing Ukraine--China.
The Chinese are not happy with this war because they aren't happy with ANYTHING that causes instability, especially unstable things that can escalate into nuclear war. They will use their influence to achieve peace soonest.
Will that have any effect on Russian policy? I really can't say. I don't see Putin settling for anything less than a demilitarized Ukraine and recognition that Crimea and the Donbass are parts of the Russian Federation, period. They MAY keep going until they control the entire Black Sea Coast, which would include Odessa, an ancient city founded by the Greeks 2400 years or so ago, and later colonized by Russians under Catherine the Great.
Most Odessans would DEFINITELY prefer to be part of Russia, so there's that. Putin would be smart to insist on UN-monitored elections to determine Odessa's fate, and that of other Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine not already under Russian control. China would support that, and at least grudgingly support Russia if the West refuses.