I stopped listening to what Mr Ritter was saying when he was repeatidly stating he was a true American patriot (which is fine). That no one could convince him the American Marines weren't the best fighting force in the world. The American Marines haven't fought anyone anywhere since WW2 that could match them with equipment & manpower. It's the same old American Hollywood fantasy of American military might. America are serial losers in conflicts on their own. Sure they know how to spin their defeats with ridiculous excuses & reasons. But a defeat is a defeat. What did American Marines achieve in Vietnam, Korea or Afghanistan. Hardly peer adversaries but they were defeated. The American military wouldn't have a clue how to fight Russia in a ground war. They'd be crying to use nukes after the 1st week of being decimated. America couldn't take the losses it's military have never experienced anything like what is going on in Ukraine. The scale, the violence, the attrition plus the bad weather. Would totally destroy them. I'm very confident of this, as I'm from a British military family. My both Grandfather's hated American soldiers. They were grateful for the aid in weaponry. Which my country has just finished paying for. But the amount of British men lost winning back areas the Americans failed to hold onto. Made both of them very bitter. Americans have the terrible habit of talking a good war, until they experience it coming to their shores. It will never change.
That's interesting about the British military not liking their American "allies" much-- certainly during WWII and Korea. I have heard similar things from various people including one guy who was a POW in Korea. I have met quite a few marines in my time, some of them good people, some not.
I think it's probbaly safe to say that the Russians, quite possibly Putin himself, ran their objectives by the Chinese before this started. They are well aware of what "demilitarisation and denazification" entail and while they may not actively support it on the ground they have proven content to support the Russian economy and provide other aid as necessary - Probably in return for technology.
At the beginning of this conflict I fully expected the Chinese to sit it out, not caring who actually wins, that they'd use their apparent neutrality to curry favour with the victor. I still think they could do that and lose fairly little especially in the scope of decades to centuries that the current leadership appears to be thinking in. The possible permanent loss of Taiwan would be frustrating, perhaps even painful but nothing they can't overcome, in fact continued subservience to America isn't even the worst thing that can happen to them as it gives them more time to develop countermeasures to America's nuclear capabilities.
With all of that said, as a culture as aware of it's own history and age as Russia's I circle back to the original position - China understands that the Russians see this as existential, they probaly see this is a pivotal moment in America's history and the world is watching. I expect they'll provide every support short of openly taking Russia's side as that allows them to avoid much retribution from the child emperor and garner gratitude from the Russians regardless of how this ends..
Anyway, I've rambled a bit, come and gone from the topic with a tenuous thread linking it all... I believe some call it "weaving"? I dunno. Do with my thoughts as you will.
Thank you Adam. These are interesting thoughts. I would qualify this analysis with a very orientalist notion.—”complementarity” , which is important to Confucian thought — and also - ironically —to Marxist socialism, including both the versions that evolved in the USSR and China. "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" wrote Marx in 1875. In Confucius, hierarchy is very important but also heterarchy — a concept not much talked about the West (I write about it my recent “special articles” for coffee buyers. Hierarchy is a vertical power system maximizing control. Heterarchy is lateral and optimizes autonomy, independence and creativity. So, Russia has resources - human and natural—that China needs —and vice versa. It is international heterarchy, maximizing adaptability. The West cannot win against China and Russia separately. Together, they are unbeatable. But they are not playing win-lose because in win-lose the winner always ends up losing eventually, which is why hegemony lasts very long (again, you have to read my “special articles” for fuller documentation”. Putin, of course, is an orientalist. And Xi’ is very much in the tradition of Confucius and Mencius.
The Australians have terrible memories of being misused by the British - in Gallipoli, in North Africa and in Singapore.
When I was in Kharkov in December 2019, a taxi driver asked me where I was from. I told him Australia. He looked thoughtful and told me that there were "many Australians in Kharkov". I asked him if they were soldiers. He just smiled. I can only assume that the British SAS have called on their Australians to come and help them kill the civilians of the Donbas. Some things never change.
the americans do best against women and children. see Sherman in Georgia and Mississippi, Sheridan in the Shenandoah, those two again vs the Plains Indians. or getting in once the hard righting is done (ww2) or using war to bankrupt an ostensible ally and seize its possessions (what FDR did to the UK).
He's worked for government of the worst kind all his life. That's why I ignore him. I don't repeat traitors who did military intel on behalf of vicious jews in israel.
Great analysis. You only missed the one thing that might get Russia to stop short of absolutely crushing Ukraine--China.
The Chinese are not happy with this war because they aren't happy with ANYTHING that causes instability, especially unstable things that can escalate into nuclear war. They will use their influence to achieve peace soonest.
Will that have any effect on Russian policy? I really can't say. I don't see Putin settling for anything less than a demilitarized Ukraine and recognition that Crimea and the Donbass are parts of the Russian Federation, period. They MAY keep going until they control the entire Black Sea Coast, which would include Odessa, an ancient city founded by the Greeks 2400 years or so ago, and later colonized by Russians under Catherine the Great.
Most Odessans would DEFINITELY prefer to be part of Russia, so there's that. Putin would be smart to insist on UN-monitored elections to determine Odessa's fate, and that of other Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine not already under Russian control. China would support that, and at least grudgingly support Russia if the West refuses.
Counterargument: China welcomes anything that draws resources away from Taiwan and South Korea, which Ukraine reportedly does in significant amounts. Namely, Taiwan sent its “surplus” Hawk AA systems, which might be old, but having an old missile is not the same as having nothing at all. So far China has been making great profits from this conflict, producing drone components for both sides and upgrading its army with the newest tech. On diplomatic front, China managed to present itself as a powerful negotiator and secure attention if not outright allegiance of the Global South. It's very understanding of Russian reasons and doesn't display any dissatisfaction. In short, China is well aware that should Russia fail, it is next.
Those are good points, but China has consistently urged an end to the fighting. They won’t keep backing Russia if they think the Russians are going to upset they’re own applecart, but Russia has no plans to do any such thing, like invading Central Europe.
China wants to look like the mature, responsible world power under whose beneficent influence smaller nations can thrive. I think they’re playing that part rather well these days.
China is insufferable—always coming off as the supporter of peace and good will and mouthing words about negotiations. Goody-goody two shoes. They are not to be trusted.
China’s easy to trust to follow its own interests, which is stability with the growth of Chinese influence. They haven’t invaded another country since 1979, so we can at least trust them to be very reluctant to use military force.
The Chinese are far more trustworthy than my own government.
I watched Scott a lot at the onset of the SMO but never do these days. As you rightly state, he speaks from his own emotive bubble. Brian maintains the cool, clear, analytical head that is much more in context. Alexander M certainly trusts Brian's analysis far more as well.
If Trump's administration actually amounts to anything approaching a peaceable, diplomatic core, I'll be wonderfully surprised. Alas, I have no such expectation.
Ritter is way off base, seeing the world through his filters.
20% inflation was after the start of the smo, due costs gearing up, sanctions & investments needed to overcome sanctions. It has long since lowered due to those investments paying off. Income growth is well ahead of the current inflation rate.
I read long ago that because it is s historic city, Russia will save Odessa for the end, to protect it from street to street battle. They will first cut it off from the north from remains Ukr, & then descend.
Putin promised in the start retribution for the burning alive of the 40+ resistors & their children. He will not renege on that promise.
The Galicians have made themselves unpopular in Odessa with their aggressive conscription policies, not to mention the mercenaries they house there. I wouldn't want to be a UAF soldier there when the Russians get close.
This was a good read. I am glad you called out Ritter, my fellow Americans love the things about Ritter that I dislike. He is emotional, and I always think how can you analyze something IF just talking about it can drive yourself into mouth spitting anger? He does not have a good record of predicting anything because as you point out, he looks at everything as if it is 2002 and the U.S. did not ever face a peer or near peer adversary.
I myself allowed myself a week of optimism with a Trump victory, I am like many Americans, worried most about what is happening here in my country. As the feel good wears off and I begin looking towards foreign policy I see huge problems, Trump may have good instincts, but Washington DC is owned by AIPAC and other special interests. Trump does not need Israeli money but all of DC does and that is going to cause nothing but problems.
Trump's recent appointments -- neocon hawks and zionists--seem to indicate that he is still a Swamp Critter. Lesson: you cannot drain the Swamp if you are feeding off it.
Fairup to a point but Tulsi Gabbard and Robert Kennedy do not qualify as neocon hawks. Zionist,well that’s a different matter but then that’s true for nearly all American politicians.
The only thing I will say is that most American's who live in the U.S. are more worried about domestic policy so I am OK with Gaetz as AG and Tulsi as DNI . The biggest problem with foreign policy is the President will get huge pushback no matter who is "appointed" So far there are no dual citizenship people. I look for anything positive.
The notion that electing an American president changes neoliberalism is that drug hopium that Whitney Webb talks about. If there were ever a reason not to vote, America is it.
The first appointment on that list was JD Vance. Thiel and Musk got their current influencer and future president, and Trump got the short-term cash for a short-term victory.
Trump is a Zionist and so are his cabinet picks. Anyone who supports the Zionist State whether Jew or Goy is a Zionist. The Zionist Goys are Zionist Dupes. American is a Zionist Dupe for the most part.
Forget the Nazis. The irony is they've succeeded at their 80 year project of turning the USA into the 4th Reich. Not only that, the Zionists dropped their masks and are going Genocidal on the Palestinians LIKE NAZIS! Oh, the irony!
I agree with Scott Ritter in one thing - I don't expect the Russians to take Odessa by military force.
Instead, I expect the following scenario the most likely:
- enforce strict neutrality those of regions;
- enforce a strict "de-nazification" campaign, clearing out pro-Western & pro-EU elements;
- a semi-autonomous status;, without Western troups or interference;
- hold a referendum to join Russia after the dust has settled, in 2 years or more;
I could see legalistic Putin to follow such a strategy. In difference to the West, he (and e.g. the Chinese leaders) don't need to focus on the next elections, but can think and plan long-term.
As Oswald Spengler said, democracy is the weapon of the High Finance. And the financing of political campaigns, parties, and governments is their instrument of control.
I also agree that the Russians will try to take Odessa by military force. Putin is a student of Sun Tzu, who advised against attacks on large cities. In any case, he doesn't need to. As I wrote, the model is Japan. The Americans won - without an invasion. Didn't need to.
Russia has to ensure Ukraine has no harbours so less staging ground for NATO. Of course, as consequence, that makes Romania as important as Poland to the USA.
The end of this conflict will come when Russia has secured the security buffer zone it requires between itself & NATO.
This security buffer zone is Ukraine.
The only way Russia can secure this buffer zone is by physically ensuring Ukraine territory is denazified, denatoized & dewesternized.
In other words this conflict will end with Russia in control of Ukraine.
Once all Ukraine territory is secured and the western border reinforced- Russia will take steps to ease tensions with its new neighbors to the west and to placate China & it's BRICS partners.
It is likely to trade some of western Ukraine to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary & Romania in exchange for non-aggression and/or trade agreements on a state to state basis.
To placate China & BRICS it will likely organise referendums. Perhaps even bringing in BRICS peacekeepers or referendum monitors.
America & the west will have no role, presence or influence whatsoever on soon to be former Ukraine.
By the time Russia reaches the Dneiper the UkroNATO will be decimated. Russia will not have to fight all the way across Ukraine or fight for any large city.
Simply not going to happen.
Nothing Trump can do about this.
Trumps best move is to hang this on the Biden regime & walk away.
All he has to do to minimize the resistance from his foes in America is pledge everything to Israel.
If he does this AIPAC will deal with any resistance.
Not that I care what Trump does or think it makes any difference.
At some point during his 4 year term the western financial system ponzi scheme is going to implode.
Gonna make the GFC in 2008 look like a sunday picnic.
> At some point during his 4 year term the western financial system ponzi scheme is going to implode.
> Gonna make the GFC in 2008 look like a sunday picnic.
This is the 800-lbs gorilla in the room.
Numbers do not matter - as long as the other side keeps picking up the bill, i.e. buying US debt and using the USD. Now that this finally comes to an end, the US will have to face the music. And subordinate currencies like the € with it.
Historically, this has always been the point when big wars were started, to kill off the debt holders.
For 50 ,000 years,human beings did not have wars. We were hunters and gatherers. There was no notion of property since no one owned the land. Then the climate changed and human beings moved to the mouths of rivers and set up static communities, inventing agriculture and horticulture, an dividing up the land. In these larger communities, “resources” became an issue. And competition for them. Hence war.
How can you make such a blanket statement. It seems completely unrealistic. At the scale of tribes and villages, people certainly did fight each other for land and therefore resources. In modern times we are socially arranged into larger "countries," but the principle is the same.
Great! I love to listen Ritter and his emotional way to talk and to explain Russia. But I started to be careful with him as he suddenly, after some first weeks of the SMO, after he had told us that Russia will crash Ukraine, he seemed horrified by all the support the US promised and gave Z. He wasn’t coherent.
I think you are right.
With Odessa it will be as it was with novo Russia: Russia is moving slowly to give the west a chance to get accustomed to what is inevitable. Nobody talking about taking Odessa (besides Medwedew) is part of the game.
In the western media, Russia is still suffering terrible defeats and losses… Putin: let them believe it.
Actually, Russia did crash Ukraine in the first few weeks, despite not being fully prepared or organized -- that, with just 90,000 troops against a much, much larger NATO army, which fortunately for the Russians was widely dispersed in a web of fortified villages and towns in the DPR and LPR. The Russians took a lot of losses in the first two weeks but adapted very fast. The kept focus on the Strategic Ball and were able to force negotiations in just a couple of months. Then of course the US stepped in.... And the context changed. Russia had to change its strategy again.....opting for a Long War.
The fundamental problem is that Westerners do not understand the East, much less Eastern thinking ! Mr. Ritter should read the late James Clawell's books, such as The Noble House and the others, where he very insightfully wrote that the Chinese plan for several generations for 100 years, the Russians only half-eastern, they plan for fifty years (I will add this), while the short-sighted Westerners only plan for the take advantage of it today ! Mr. Ritter is obviously tormented by the pursuit of western sensation, where he has to say something big every day. :) The Russians will never give up Odessa, and they will not let Transnistria down either ! Putin already sees very well (it wasn't like that for a long time) that the West cannot be trusted, because they will backstab at the first opportunity, and they can and will ! Do we now see an honest person among Western politicians ? Because I don't ! At the moment we are there, if I had to shake hands (I would not like to!) with a Western politician, then after the handshake I would check if I still have my watch on my hand ! The Minsk agreement is an excellent example of this, Hollande and Merkel have admitted that they are lying, so they and their countries are dishonest, and if Putin would trust their word, he would be a fool !
I like Scott's fight against the censorship that is forced upon him.
But like anybody he has his strong and his weak points. He gets more and more emotional i noticed.
But i want to point at one rather recent development in Russia's operations (mainly Naval and Aerial).
It signals the existence of two intentions, one by NATO and the other as response by Russia. I do sense that.
The bombing in Odessa Harbour of ships and storage and the sinking of NATO-hired Bulk carriers in the Black Sea before they could port in Romania.... And NOTHING in the MSM... And the positioning of the main F16 force in Romania. And still some Colour revolution threats in Moldova. (And remember the old Kiev plan to attack Transnistria...)
My guess is, that NATO wants to create a fortified area that extents from Mikolaiv south and is perfectly fit for creating such a Bulwark, But only when supply via Sea from Romania to Odessa can be maintained.
The second intention is from Russia, wanting to make that impossible and stop it before it is ready.
So i estimate a 67.5% probability, that after the final collapse this month, or in December of the Zaporizhia front, a Huge Russian army will go West and south to cut of Mikolaiv + Odessa from the North. Laying Siege.
NOT going to Kharkov, Sumy and Kiev.
But Odessa has to be blocked from Supply from the South too. That could be Naval and Aerial, but maybe a landing on the Coast, or an attack from Transnistria to the south-east.
One intention i noticed was strong, leaked by Macron on a French Army to go to Moldova, to go to Odessa when needed. That was not a Macron plan, it was part of a larger plan from NATO.
But now Trumps election made the last bit of US-support for that plan collapse, but who knows what Trump will do ? Putin doesn't trust no Americans any more (and no Europeans). So...
As ever Sander, these are great insights. Sumy would be easy for the Russians, and also Kharkov. The UAF would repeat the mistakes of Kursk, drawing reservers from the "quiet" fronts of Southwest Ukraine. As for the US, it is no longer #1 militarily-- but #3 after China and Russia.
But sorry, i do not see any intention by Kiev or the NATO, to draw reserves away from the Odessa /Kherson direction (except the remainder of the Marines some time ago).
I do not see a slowing down of Supply to Odessa, nor protests against sinking NATO-ships.
I do not see an intention to forget Moldova.
I see F16's and Missiles go to Romania.
Fighting a battle to conquer A Fortified Mikolaiv-Odessa, while it keeps being supplied is a task at least the double of Bakhmut... It would last Months or even more.
For me preventing any chance that this will happen is priority 1 for Russia.
I do see recent "Reconnaissance in Force operations" by Russia going direction of Zaporizhia. They are finding the weak spots.
When there are serious 'Peace Talks', things can be arranged without more fighting, even Poland can get Galicia under conditions, what will be a relieve for Putin.
And Odessa can be arranged too in Peace talks. But those talks will be difficult, Zelensky will have to step down and US + EU will have influence.
A Surrender would cause US and EU to be NOT part of those negotiations.
And that is the secret card in Zelensky's Sleeve !! His Revenge.
I Sense, and estimate on 75% probability, that Zelensky will NOT do talks and his NAZI Battalions neither and they support him.
The Biden Neocons will NOT force him and probably can't force him to start talks.
A as you may have noticed, and i am sensing, Zelensky is trying to get the Army collapsing before Januari 20. He is doing that for some months now.
It is his revenge, now his blackmail failed.
It is NOT because he is stupid (which he is anyway).
When the collapse is final, Ukraine stops to exist, not even a government in Exile, military will do the surrender and something has to be constructed with what is left, with a new constitution etc.
And Bidens Neocons and NATO and EU-Brussels are the ones that LOST A WAR WITH RUSSIA. Punished by ' an avenging angel ': Zelensky, because they abandoned him and committed treason.
I can feel it. I have problems in finding the good words.
Sander
PS. the Biden Neocons still are in power all over the DeepState; they cannot stop, they dream of Trump being hit by a meteorite. They have to be completely DEFEATED.
PPS. Please look at this small part of the excellent Video interview by - Daniel Davis - , with Colonel Douglas MacGregor - :
It starts at the right point (57:30), but notice at 58:40...
A great analysis, as usual. If I am not mistaken, Kiev has already drawn reserves from Odessa and Kherson. You are right. They don't have much left to draw on . And, also, the ability to move reserves from one place to another is subject to Russian interdiction. As you say, the West will continue trying to supply Odessa from the sea, and the Russians will interdict their ships. Of course, the West will try to build up their presence in Moldova but that will be unsuccessful in the long term. F16s and missiles ARE going to Romania! But they cannot be used from there, without provoking a full scale war. RIF operations in Zaporizhia indicate that the Russians have a plan to take both Zaporizhia and Kherson - but not right away. Step by step. I think your analysis of Zelensky is right on. He will get his revenge - and then escape to Beverly Hills!
Odessa is a multicultural city, probably the least Western Ukrainian culturally of any in the extreme West of post 1990 Ukraine. Lots of Greeks, other East European sea fareing peoples, ethnic Russians. Odessa is a melting pot port city.
LOTS of the locals have very little sympathy for the Banderite tools who showed up in APCs and burned out their trade union building 10 years ago (and more recently have been press ganging their people as cannon fodder) plus bringing down missile strikes on their heads over a cause that many of their families are not ethnically/culturally/linguistically tied to. This is demonstrated by the Odessa oblast experiencing the highest rate of (apparently spontaneous?) sabotage and arsons of military recruiting/draft facilities and "press gang" vehicles & equipment in Western Ukraine. To the point where ordinary uniformed Ukrainian army people in Odessa now leave signs on their windshield saying that they are NOT draft/recruiting personnel, please don't torch my personal vehicle!
Apparently numbers of "little green men" with up to date military training have slowly arrived to Odessa and suggested a more organized response to the irritating thugs dominating their town?
There is a possibility with everything for Zelensky regime running down to zero now, the Russian Federation regular army may not NEED to invade Odessa in order that the Ukrainian army + foreign mercenaries be ejected.
The CIA thought they could initiate a Banderite guerilla war if Russia invaded the whole country, I suspect that shoe may be put on the OTHER foot shortly.
I ‘ve watched the war since fall ‘22. First off I think the Russians politicians do not micromanage wars. It seems they are slowly destroying Ukraines ability to wage war. They have been using aggressive attrition to weaken the Ukies. They attack weak points. While looking for more and so on.
There are no set plans. I believe they will take Odessa.
Has anyone been able to predict consistently what the next Russian move is. Not me. It may be that they make the move when conditions warrant. Recently a scouting party north of Kupiansk found it unoccupied so they attacked successfully.
If Ukraine collapses. The Russians just have each oblast vote joining Russian Federation or remain in Ukraine.
I don't think Simplicius is one person. It is several people with an editor -- most likely -- as Larry Johnson suggests. Basically, S. is an "aggregator". He produces long posts with large amounts of information, culled from various sources -- which alway looks ..."authoritative", simply because of the volume. Most people don't check the details of his analysis. I do. What I notice is that his analysis is often derivative. That is not to say, however, that it is necessarily wrong. Nor should one 'diss the efforts of his/ her,/ its team.
No matter how great anonymous writers are, their intention should always be in question. That's 100% for geopolitics, but an exception for whistleblowers and activists uunder threat.
I used to write anonymously as the "Oracle" on https://asianintelligencereview.blogspot.com/ . That's because I was writing a lot about Japan-- and people I worked for --the Japanese government, big companies, etc. I was correct in protecting my identity given my recent blacklisting my some former clients here. But I prefer to be straightforward about who I am, what I do, and so on. Risky maybe. But I am too old to care.
I unsubscribed from my favourites, the ones I trust and the ones I have question marks for. That will have been unfair to some, but I wanted to ensure that I was not in an echo chamber. That gave me time to listen to smaller writers like Sopo (in Georgia), and thus gain not only new perspectives but knowledge from directions I hadn't thought of. It also allowed me to collaborate with other writers on Palestine. I return to my old loves, but rarely comment, or only monthly. It was difficult breaking habit but it's been fruitful.
I stopped listening to what Mr Ritter was saying when he was repeatidly stating he was a true American patriot (which is fine). That no one could convince him the American Marines weren't the best fighting force in the world. The American Marines haven't fought anyone anywhere since WW2 that could match them with equipment & manpower. It's the same old American Hollywood fantasy of American military might. America are serial losers in conflicts on their own. Sure they know how to spin their defeats with ridiculous excuses & reasons. But a defeat is a defeat. What did American Marines achieve in Vietnam, Korea or Afghanistan. Hardly peer adversaries but they were defeated. The American military wouldn't have a clue how to fight Russia in a ground war. They'd be crying to use nukes after the 1st week of being decimated. America couldn't take the losses it's military have never experienced anything like what is going on in Ukraine. The scale, the violence, the attrition plus the bad weather. Would totally destroy them. I'm very confident of this, as I'm from a British military family. My both Grandfather's hated American soldiers. They were grateful for the aid in weaponry. Which my country has just finished paying for. But the amount of British men lost winning back areas the Americans failed to hold onto. Made both of them very bitter. Americans have the terrible habit of talking a good war, until they experience it coming to their shores. It will never change.
That's interesting about the British military not liking their American "allies" much-- certainly during WWII and Korea. I have heard similar things from various people including one guy who was a POW in Korea. I have met quite a few marines in my time, some of them good people, some not.
I think it's probbaly safe to say that the Russians, quite possibly Putin himself, ran their objectives by the Chinese before this started. They are well aware of what "demilitarisation and denazification" entail and while they may not actively support it on the ground they have proven content to support the Russian economy and provide other aid as necessary - Probably in return for technology.
At the beginning of this conflict I fully expected the Chinese to sit it out, not caring who actually wins, that they'd use their apparent neutrality to curry favour with the victor. I still think they could do that and lose fairly little especially in the scope of decades to centuries that the current leadership appears to be thinking in. The possible permanent loss of Taiwan would be frustrating, perhaps even painful but nothing they can't overcome, in fact continued subservience to America isn't even the worst thing that can happen to them as it gives them more time to develop countermeasures to America's nuclear capabilities.
With all of that said, as a culture as aware of it's own history and age as Russia's I circle back to the original position - China understands that the Russians see this as existential, they probaly see this is a pivotal moment in America's history and the world is watching. I expect they'll provide every support short of openly taking Russia's side as that allows them to avoid much retribution from the child emperor and garner gratitude from the Russians regardless of how this ends..
Anyway, I've rambled a bit, come and gone from the topic with a tenuous thread linking it all... I believe some call it "weaving"? I dunno. Do with my thoughts as you will.
Thank you Adam. These are interesting thoughts. I would qualify this analysis with a very orientalist notion.—”complementarity” , which is important to Confucian thought — and also - ironically —to Marxist socialism, including both the versions that evolved in the USSR and China. "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" wrote Marx in 1875. In Confucius, hierarchy is very important but also heterarchy — a concept not much talked about the West (I write about it my recent “special articles” for coffee buyers. Hierarchy is a vertical power system maximizing control. Heterarchy is lateral and optimizes autonomy, independence and creativity. So, Russia has resources - human and natural—that China needs —and vice versa. It is international heterarchy, maximizing adaptability. The West cannot win against China and Russia separately. Together, they are unbeatable. But they are not playing win-lose because in win-lose the winner always ends up losing eventually, which is why hegemony lasts very long (again, you have to read my “special articles” for fuller documentation”. Putin, of course, is an orientalist. And Xi’ is very much in the tradition of Confucius and Mencius.
The Australians have terrible memories of being misused by the British - in Gallipoli, in North Africa and in Singapore.
When I was in Kharkov in December 2019, a taxi driver asked me where I was from. I told him Australia. He looked thoughtful and told me that there were "many Australians in Kharkov". I asked him if they were soldiers. He just smiled. I can only assume that the British SAS have called on their Australians to come and help them kill the civilians of the Donbas. Some things never change.
the americans do best against women and children. see Sherman in Georgia and Mississippi, Sheridan in the Shenandoah, those two again vs the Plains Indians. or getting in once the hard righting is done (ww2) or using war to bankrupt an ostensible ally and seize its possessions (what FDR did to the UK).
There was an old saying during WW2, that the American soldiers in England were, …overpaid, oversexed, over confident and over here.”
The American reply about the Brits, was that they were, “…underpaid, undersexed and under Eisenhower.”
How true.
He's worked for government of the worst kind all his life. That's why I ignore him. I don't repeat traitors who did military intel on behalf of vicious jews in israel.
Great analysis. You only missed the one thing that might get Russia to stop short of absolutely crushing Ukraine--China.
The Chinese are not happy with this war because they aren't happy with ANYTHING that causes instability, especially unstable things that can escalate into nuclear war. They will use their influence to achieve peace soonest.
Will that have any effect on Russian policy? I really can't say. I don't see Putin settling for anything less than a demilitarized Ukraine and recognition that Crimea and the Donbass are parts of the Russian Federation, period. They MAY keep going until they control the entire Black Sea Coast, which would include Odessa, an ancient city founded by the Greeks 2400 years or so ago, and later colonized by Russians under Catherine the Great.
Most Odessans would DEFINITELY prefer to be part of Russia, so there's that. Putin would be smart to insist on UN-monitored elections to determine Odessa's fate, and that of other Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine not already under Russian control. China would support that, and at least grudgingly support Russia if the West refuses.
Good point. I did miss China. Which is probably more important than whomever is president of the US of A.
Counterargument: China welcomes anything that draws resources away from Taiwan and South Korea, which Ukraine reportedly does in significant amounts. Namely, Taiwan sent its “surplus” Hawk AA systems, which might be old, but having an old missile is not the same as having nothing at all. So far China has been making great profits from this conflict, producing drone components for both sides and upgrading its army with the newest tech. On diplomatic front, China managed to present itself as a powerful negotiator and secure attention if not outright allegiance of the Global South. It's very understanding of Russian reasons and doesn't display any dissatisfaction. In short, China is well aware that should Russia fail, it is next.
Hawk systems are very good for shooting down airliners
Those are good points, but China has consistently urged an end to the fighting. They won’t keep backing Russia if they think the Russians are going to upset they’re own applecart, but Russia has no plans to do any such thing, like invading Central Europe.
China wants to look like the mature, responsible world power under whose beneficent influence smaller nations can thrive. I think they’re playing that part rather well these days.
China is insufferable—always coming off as the supporter of peace and good will and mouthing words about negotiations. Goody-goody two shoes. They are not to be trusted.
China’s easy to trust to follow its own interests, which is stability with the growth of Chinese influence. They haven’t invaded another country since 1979, so we can at least trust them to be very reluctant to use military force.
The Chinese are far more trustworthy than my own government.
I watched Scott a lot at the onset of the SMO but never do these days. As you rightly state, he speaks from his own emotive bubble. Brian maintains the cool, clear, analytical head that is much more in context. Alexander M certainly trusts Brian's analysis far more as well.
If Trump's administration actually amounts to anything approaching a peaceable, diplomatic core, I'll be wonderfully surprised. Alas, I have no such expectation.
Brian doesn't assume he knows everything on the basis of his training. So he studies. And learns.
Ritter is way off base, seeing the world through his filters.
20% inflation was after the start of the smo, due costs gearing up, sanctions & investments needed to overcome sanctions. It has long since lowered due to those investments paying off. Income growth is well ahead of the current inflation rate.
I read long ago that because it is s historic city, Russia will save Odessa for the end, to protect it from street to street battle. They will first cut it off from the north from remains Ukr, & then descend.
Putin promised in the start retribution for the burning alive of the 40+ resistors & their children. He will not renege on that promise.
The Galicians have made themselves unpopular in Odessa with their aggressive conscription policies, not to mention the mercenaries they house there. I wouldn't want to be a UAF soldier there when the Russians get close.
Me neither.
This was a good read. I am glad you called out Ritter, my fellow Americans love the things about Ritter that I dislike. He is emotional, and I always think how can you analyze something IF just talking about it can drive yourself into mouth spitting anger? He does not have a good record of predicting anything because as you point out, he looks at everything as if it is 2002 and the U.S. did not ever face a peer or near peer adversary.
I myself allowed myself a week of optimism with a Trump victory, I am like many Americans, worried most about what is happening here in my country. As the feel good wears off and I begin looking towards foreign policy I see huge problems, Trump may have good instincts, but Washington DC is owned by AIPAC and other special interests. Trump does not need Israeli money but all of DC does and that is going to cause nothing but problems.
Trump's recent appointments -- neocon hawks and zionists--seem to indicate that he is still a Swamp Critter. Lesson: you cannot drain the Swamp if you are feeding off it.
Fairup to a point but Tulsi Gabbard and Robert Kennedy do not qualify as neocon hawks. Zionist,well that’s a different matter but then that’s true for nearly all American politicians.
Zionist will support the same hawkish Israel first policies as neocons. That's what matters m.
The appointments so far are just a huge disappointment, especially if Rubio is SoS.
I wasn’t “disappointed” because my expectations were set very low.
The only thing I will say is that most American's who live in the U.S. are more worried about domestic policy so I am OK with Gaetz as AG and Tulsi as DNI . The biggest problem with foreign policy is the President will get huge pushback no matter who is "appointed" So far there are no dual citizenship people. I look for anything positive.
Marco Rubio trying to negotiate with Lavrov? Not a good matchup.
The notion that electing an American president changes neoliberalism is that drug hopium that Whitney Webb talks about. If there were ever a reason not to vote, America is it.
LOL, and South Africa is the shining light on the hill?? An anti-corruption activist indeed!
I agree with you completely.
Brian is and has been correct on most of everything.
I hope he is not as correct on Trump but we’ll see. Though Rubio for Secretary of State and Setefanik for the UN is Israel’s pick.
I guess Trump (like Obama) also got a list.
I agree. Every new president gets a List.
The first appointment on that list was JD Vance. Thiel and Musk got their current influencer and future president, and Trump got the short-term cash for a short-term victory.
Trump is a Zionist and so are his cabinet picks. Anyone who supports the Zionist State whether Jew or Goy is a Zionist. The Zionist Goys are Zionist Dupes. American is a Zionist Dupe for the most part.
Forget the Nazis. The irony is they've succeeded at their 80 year project of turning the USA into the 4th Reich. Not only that, the Zionists dropped their masks and are going Genocidal on the Palestinians LIKE NAZIS! Oh, the irony!
Zionism is Nazism by another name. It has little to do with Jews or Judaism. Most Palestinians are genetically more "Jewish" than most
European Zionist Jews.
I agree with Scott Ritter in one thing - I don't expect the Russians to take Odessa by military force.
Instead, I expect the following scenario the most likely:
- enforce strict neutrality those of regions;
- enforce a strict "de-nazification" campaign, clearing out pro-Western & pro-EU elements;
- a semi-autonomous status;, without Western troups or interference;
- hold a referendum to join Russia after the dust has settled, in 2 years or more;
I could see legalistic Putin to follow such a strategy. In difference to the West, he (and e.g. the Chinese leaders) don't need to focus on the next elections, but can think and plan long-term.
As Oswald Spengler said, democracy is the weapon of the High Finance. And the financing of political campaigns, parties, and governments is their instrument of control.
I also agree that the Russians will try to take Odessa by military force. Putin is a student of Sun Tzu, who advised against attacks on large cities. In any case, he doesn't need to. As I wrote, the model is Japan. The Americans won - without an invasion. Didn't need to.
Whoops. Dyslexia acting up again. "I also agree that the Russians will NOT try to take Odessa by military force". Sorry....
Russia has to ensure Ukraine has no harbours so less staging ground for NATO. Of course, as consequence, that makes Romania as important as Poland to the USA.
The end of this conflict will come when Russia has secured the security buffer zone it requires between itself & NATO.
This security buffer zone is Ukraine.
The only way Russia can secure this buffer zone is by physically ensuring Ukraine territory is denazified, denatoized & dewesternized.
In other words this conflict will end with Russia in control of Ukraine.
Once all Ukraine territory is secured and the western border reinforced- Russia will take steps to ease tensions with its new neighbors to the west and to placate China & it's BRICS partners.
It is likely to trade some of western Ukraine to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary & Romania in exchange for non-aggression and/or trade agreements on a state to state basis.
To placate China & BRICS it will likely organise referendums. Perhaps even bringing in BRICS peacekeepers or referendum monitors.
America & the west will have no role, presence or influence whatsoever on soon to be former Ukraine.
By the time Russia reaches the Dneiper the UkroNATO will be decimated. Russia will not have to fight all the way across Ukraine or fight for any large city.
Simply not going to happen.
Nothing Trump can do about this.
Trumps best move is to hang this on the Biden regime & walk away.
All he has to do to minimize the resistance from his foes in America is pledge everything to Israel.
If he does this AIPAC will deal with any resistance.
Not that I care what Trump does or think it makes any difference.
At some point during his 4 year term the western financial system ponzi scheme is going to implode.
Gonna make the GFC in 2008 look like a sunday picnic.
> At some point during his 4 year term the western financial system ponzi scheme is going to implode.
> Gonna make the GFC in 2008 look like a sunday picnic.
This is the 800-lbs gorilla in the room.
Numbers do not matter - as long as the other side keeps picking up the bill, i.e. buying US debt and using the USD. Now that this finally comes to an end, the US will have to face the music. And subordinate currencies like the € with it.
Historically, this has always been the point when big wars were started, to kill off the debt holders.
Which is what worries me ...
Seems that wars are usually started to get resources.
For 50 ,000 years,human beings did not have wars. We were hunters and gatherers. There was no notion of property since no one owned the land. Then the climate changed and human beings moved to the mouths of rivers and set up static communities, inventing agriculture and horticulture, an dividing up the land. In these larger communities, “resources” became an issue. And competition for them. Hence war.
How can you make such a blanket statement. It seems completely unrealistic. At the scale of tribes and villages, people certainly did fight each other for land and therefore resources. In modern times we are socially arranged into larger "countries," but the principle is the same.
Great! I love to listen Ritter and his emotional way to talk and to explain Russia. But I started to be careful with him as he suddenly, after some first weeks of the SMO, after he had told us that Russia will crash Ukraine, he seemed horrified by all the support the US promised and gave Z. He wasn’t coherent.
I think you are right.
With Odessa it will be as it was with novo Russia: Russia is moving slowly to give the west a chance to get accustomed to what is inevitable. Nobody talking about taking Odessa (besides Medwedew) is part of the game.
In the western media, Russia is still suffering terrible defeats and losses… Putin: let them believe it.
Actually, Russia did crash Ukraine in the first few weeks, despite not being fully prepared or organized -- that, with just 90,000 troops against a much, much larger NATO army, which fortunately for the Russians was widely dispersed in a web of fortified villages and towns in the DPR and LPR. The Russians took a lot of losses in the first two weeks but adapted very fast. The kept focus on the Strategic Ball and were able to force negotiations in just a couple of months. Then of course the US stepped in.... And the context changed. Russia had to change its strategy again.....opting for a Long War.
Absolute tour de force Julian! You’ve summed everything up so incisively. Thank you
The fundamental problem is that Westerners do not understand the East, much less Eastern thinking ! Mr. Ritter should read the late James Clawell's books, such as The Noble House and the others, where he very insightfully wrote that the Chinese plan for several generations for 100 years, the Russians only half-eastern, they plan for fifty years (I will add this), while the short-sighted Westerners only plan for the take advantage of it today ! Mr. Ritter is obviously tormented by the pursuit of western sensation, where he has to say something big every day. :) The Russians will never give up Odessa, and they will not let Transnistria down either ! Putin already sees very well (it wasn't like that for a long time) that the West cannot be trusted, because they will backstab at the first opportunity, and they can and will ! Do we now see an honest person among Western politicians ? Because I don't ! At the moment we are there, if I had to shake hands (I would not like to!) with a Western politician, then after the handshake I would check if I still have my watch on my hand ! The Minsk agreement is an excellent example of this, Hollande and Merkel have admitted that they are lying, so they and their countries are dishonest, and if Putin would trust their word, he would be a fool !
What a great comment....about the Chinese planning for 100 years and the Russians for 50 years. The Americans plan for the next news cycle.
South Africa plans for the weekend.
Putin has made that point of distrust several times, the latest at Valdai when addressed by Glenn Diesen.
You make a lot of good points here. I hope you are right.
Thank you for this perfect analysis.
I like Scott's fight against the censorship that is forced upon him.
But like anybody he has his strong and his weak points. He gets more and more emotional i noticed.
But i want to point at one rather recent development in Russia's operations (mainly Naval and Aerial).
It signals the existence of two intentions, one by NATO and the other as response by Russia. I do sense that.
The bombing in Odessa Harbour of ships and storage and the sinking of NATO-hired Bulk carriers in the Black Sea before they could port in Romania.... And NOTHING in the MSM... And the positioning of the main F16 force in Romania. And still some Colour revolution threats in Moldova. (And remember the old Kiev plan to attack Transnistria...)
My guess is, that NATO wants to create a fortified area that extents from Mikolaiv south and is perfectly fit for creating such a Bulwark, But only when supply via Sea from Romania to Odessa can be maintained.
The second intention is from Russia, wanting to make that impossible and stop it before it is ready.
So i estimate a 67.5% probability, that after the final collapse this month, or in December of the Zaporizhia front, a Huge Russian army will go West and south to cut of Mikolaiv + Odessa from the North. Laying Siege.
NOT going to Kharkov, Sumy and Kiev.
But Odessa has to be blocked from Supply from the South too. That could be Naval and Aerial, but maybe a landing on the Coast, or an attack from Transnistria to the south-east.
One intention i noticed was strong, leaked by Macron on a French Army to go to Moldova, to go to Odessa when needed. That was not a Macron plan, it was part of a larger plan from NATO.
But now Trumps election made the last bit of US-support for that plan collapse, but who knows what Trump will do ? Putin doesn't trust no Americans any more (and no Europeans). So...
We will see.
Sander
As ever Sander, these are great insights. Sumy would be easy for the Russians, and also Kharkov. The UAF would repeat the mistakes of Kursk, drawing reservers from the "quiet" fronts of Southwest Ukraine. As for the US, it is no longer #1 militarily-- but #3 after China and Russia.
That is right.
But sorry, i do not see any intention by Kiev or the NATO, to draw reserves away from the Odessa /Kherson direction (except the remainder of the Marines some time ago).
I do not see a slowing down of Supply to Odessa, nor protests against sinking NATO-ships.
I do not see an intention to forget Moldova.
I see F16's and Missiles go to Romania.
Fighting a battle to conquer A Fortified Mikolaiv-Odessa, while it keeps being supplied is a task at least the double of Bakhmut... It would last Months or even more.
For me preventing any chance that this will happen is priority 1 for Russia.
I do see recent "Reconnaissance in Force operations" by Russia going direction of Zaporizhia. They are finding the weak spots.
When there are serious 'Peace Talks', things can be arranged without more fighting, even Poland can get Galicia under conditions, what will be a relieve for Putin.
And Odessa can be arranged too in Peace talks. But those talks will be difficult, Zelensky will have to step down and US + EU will have influence.
A Surrender would cause US and EU to be NOT part of those negotiations.
And that is the secret card in Zelensky's Sleeve !! His Revenge.
I Sense, and estimate on 75% probability, that Zelensky will NOT do talks and his NAZI Battalions neither and they support him.
The Biden Neocons will NOT force him and probably can't force him to start talks.
A as you may have noticed, and i am sensing, Zelensky is trying to get the Army collapsing before Januari 20. He is doing that for some months now.
It is his revenge, now his blackmail failed.
It is NOT because he is stupid (which he is anyway).
When the collapse is final, Ukraine stops to exist, not even a government in Exile, military will do the surrender and something has to be constructed with what is left, with a new constitution etc.
And Bidens Neocons and NATO and EU-Brussels are the ones that LOST A WAR WITH RUSSIA. Punished by ' an avenging angel ': Zelensky, because they abandoned him and committed treason.
I can feel it. I have problems in finding the good words.
Sander
PS. the Biden Neocons still are in power all over the DeepState; they cannot stop, they dream of Trump being hit by a meteorite. They have to be completely DEFEATED.
PPS. Please look at this small part of the excellent Video interview by - Daniel Davis - , with Colonel Douglas MacGregor - :
It starts at the right point (57:30), but notice at 58:40...
->https://www.youtube.com/live/1LT08zzak8M?t=3449s
A great analysis, as usual. If I am not mistaken, Kiev has already drawn reserves from Odessa and Kherson. You are right. They don't have much left to draw on . And, also, the ability to move reserves from one place to another is subject to Russian interdiction. As you say, the West will continue trying to supply Odessa from the sea, and the Russians will interdict their ships. Of course, the West will try to build up their presence in Moldova but that will be unsuccessful in the long term. F16s and missiles ARE going to Romania! But they cannot be used from there, without provoking a full scale war. RIF operations in Zaporizhia indicate that the Russians have a plan to take both Zaporizhia and Kherson - but not right away. Step by step. I think your analysis of Zelensky is right on. He will get his revenge - and then escape to Beverly Hills!
Julian Macfarlane very good. Love it!
Odessa is a multicultural city, probably the least Western Ukrainian culturally of any in the extreme West of post 1990 Ukraine. Lots of Greeks, other East European sea fareing peoples, ethnic Russians. Odessa is a melting pot port city.
LOTS of the locals have very little sympathy for the Banderite tools who showed up in APCs and burned out their trade union building 10 years ago (and more recently have been press ganging their people as cannon fodder) plus bringing down missile strikes on their heads over a cause that many of their families are not ethnically/culturally/linguistically tied to. This is demonstrated by the Odessa oblast experiencing the highest rate of (apparently spontaneous?) sabotage and arsons of military recruiting/draft facilities and "press gang" vehicles & equipment in Western Ukraine. To the point where ordinary uniformed Ukrainian army people in Odessa now leave signs on their windshield saying that they are NOT draft/recruiting personnel, please don't torch my personal vehicle!
Apparently numbers of "little green men" with up to date military training have slowly arrived to Odessa and suggested a more organized response to the irritating thugs dominating their town?
There is a possibility with everything for Zelensky regime running down to zero now, the Russian Federation regular army may not NEED to invade Odessa in order that the Ukrainian army + foreign mercenaries be ejected.
The CIA thought they could initiate a Banderite guerilla war if Russia invaded the whole country, I suspect that shoe may be put on the OTHER foot shortly.
I ‘ve watched the war since fall ‘22. First off I think the Russians politicians do not micromanage wars. It seems they are slowly destroying Ukraines ability to wage war. They have been using aggressive attrition to weaken the Ukies. They attack weak points. While looking for more and so on.
There are no set plans. I believe they will take Odessa.
Has anyone been able to predict consistently what the next Russian move is. Not me. It may be that they make the move when conditions warrant. Recently a scouting party north of Kupiansk found it unoccupied so they attacked successfully.
If Ukraine collapses. The Russians just have each oblast vote joining Russian Federation or remain in Ukraine.
Wrong again looks right here.
He’s changed since he’s been shackled by the FBI to his house I’ve noticed.
Most of what I read is all what the Z , related Z news ,is saying and never about what Russia says or does which motivates.
Simplicus has fallen into the same trap.
I don't think Simplicius is one person. It is several people with an editor -- most likely -- as Larry Johnson suggests. Basically, S. is an "aggregator". He produces long posts with large amounts of information, culled from various sources -- which alway looks ..."authoritative", simply because of the volume. Most people don't check the details of his analysis. I do. What I notice is that his analysis is often derivative. That is not to say, however, that it is necessarily wrong. Nor should one 'diss the efforts of his/ her,/ its team.
No matter how great anonymous writers are, their intention should always be in question. That's 100% for geopolitics, but an exception for whistleblowers and activists uunder threat.
I used to write anonymously as the "Oracle" on https://asianintelligencereview.blogspot.com/ . That's because I was writing a lot about Japan-- and people I worked for --the Japanese government, big companies, etc. I was correct in protecting my identity given my recent blacklisting my some former clients here. But I prefer to be straightforward about who I am, what I do, and so on. Risky maybe. But I am too old to care.
I unsubscribed from my favourites, the ones I trust and the ones I have question marks for. That will have been unfair to some, but I wanted to ensure that I was not in an echo chamber. That gave me time to listen to smaller writers like Sopo (in Georgia), and thus gain not only new perspectives but knowledge from directions I hadn't thought of. It also allowed me to collaborate with other writers on Palestine. I return to my old loves, but rarely comment, or only monthly. It was difficult breaking habit but it's been fruitful.
I totally agree with what you are doing. Kudos.