Russia: going slow

Recently, I wrote about American – a.k.a. NATO military strategy, and the Dunning Kruger syndrome which causes West to overestimate its capabilities and to underestimate those of Russia.

I argued that this way of thinking is a unique expression of Western culture and not found to the same extent in Asian cultures. It is not psychopathology as much as it is socio-pathology.

In the West, all communication is based on the notion that people are of one mind, with one Self. Which logically leads to “canceling” those who think differently.

If you are brought up in the US, in particular, it is hard to accept that people in other cultures don’t think as you do. You might tolerate difference – but toleration is not the same as acceptance. When proven wrong, Westerners either just ignore the fact, or try to argue that those who disagree with them are not “right” either.

So Western analysts— while now admitting that Russian capabilities have been “underestimated”— insist that Putin also “underestimated: Western capabilities-- specifically Ukrainian and NATO resolve. We were sorta a little off in our estimates – but he was definitely wrong!

Putin’s task

Putin, however, did not misunderstand the West.

Keep in mind that when he took charge of Russia, the country was on the brink of collapse – with the West ready to move in and take over.

Putin’s task therefore was to reinvent the Russian Federation, despite its size and ethnic diversity.

If nothing else Putin’s recent interview with Tucker Carlson demonstrates his encyclopedic command of historical fact: so he knew from the beginning what would happen if he failed to resuscitate Russia.

In 2014, Russia was still too weak militarily, socially, industrially and economically to come to blows with NATO.

The result was the Minsk Accords. Most people assume that NATO went along with these accords never intending to honor them but rather buying time to build up Bandura Ukraine’s military as NATO’s best, biggest, and baddest army. These accords assumed that Russia was weak. Russia was in weak, of course, but not that weak – just not ready.

For Putin, it was an opportunity to:

• establish a moral position from which he could rally the Russian people, if not the world

• gain time to build up the Russian military

• incentivize Russian industry

It took eight years, during which time, the unelected Ukrainian regime demonstrated its genocidal tendencies.

Putin was careful not to underestimate his opponent.

He only entered the conflict after Donbas and Lugansk guns had voted for and declared independence under international law, asserting their right to self-determination as an ethnic polity not represented by a legitimate existing government. This was the same argument used during the American Revolution for the 13 colonies to declare independence from Britain.

Putin fielded a relatively small Russian force to supplement the existing forces of the two new republics-- plus of course airpower. It was in no way an “invasion”. He was not looking for a quick victory.

Putin was clearly aware that he was not at war with Ukraine but with a huge and powerful delusional Empire—that he aptly named the Empire of Lies.

The importance of process

I have called Putin a Fibonacci Thinker – meaning that he is creative as well as incrementalist. Step by step. For people like this everything is a creative process.

Putin used the SMO to revitalize Russia and purge it of an Atlanticism—which is not inherently wrong but, in the case of Russia, patently corrupt. It also has helped him rein in the oligarchy. Process.

Reinventing a civilization is not just about restoring the economy and industry in giving people jobs-- it is both moral and spiritual – it’s about values. That’s the real basis of “public good”. Process.

Putin always maintained his willingness to negotiate-- although understanding that realistically the West would not and could not do that.

Process

For real negotiation, you would need a level playing field – something the West would never accept.

So the SMO has been slow. Process.

Demilitarization and denazification

Russia is accomplishing both demilitarization and denazification – the first, by inducing the Ukrainians to mount suicidal military attacks; the second, by persuading them to commit political suicide by demonstrating corruption and simple lack of concern for the public good.

So now we see the Russians setting up the Ukrainians to destroy themselves along the entire line of contact. The best and greatest ally is, of course, Zelensky.

Zelensky has fired Zaluzhny who was…

• popular with the troops

• was not happy with defending the undefendable, as in Bakhmut

• supported by a rival Banderite faction

Things are not going well on the front. Bakhmut has been lost and recently also Chasiv Yar – which provides logistical support Ukrainian forces in the area – is under pressure. Avdeevka is also threatened.

Zelensky has appointed general Syrsky as commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Army.

Syrsky was in charge of the Kharkov offensive, in which the Ukrainians succeeded largely because the Russians did not contest them on the ground, redeploying and attriting UAF forces as they retreated. Then he was in charge of Soledar which fell, with many Ukrainian casualties. After that he was in charge of the slaughterhouse that was Bakhmut.

He is Russian born and educated – but he does what he's told because the Nazis are holding his family hostage.

Now, Zelensky has ordered Gen. Syrsky to attack the Russian forces in Avdeevka using its last elite brigade, the 3rd Assault Brigade. The Russians have conveniently not surrounded Avdeevka despite reports otherwise, leaving an opening for the UAF is to attack. It's a trap of course, Russian Air Force is ready with 500 kg FAB bombs, artillery and positions on the high ground.

Russia has about 650,000 troops in Ukraine, but as it has committed only a fraction of its resources to combat – it doesn't want the war over until Ukrainians have been demilitarized themselves and European nations have destabilized their governments, de- industrializing, cutting social spending, and impoverishing the people.

With Russian development of its Far East, rapid progress of BRICS, and engagement with the Global South-- not to mention the almost total collapse of American "soft power, the Russians can afford to wait. Time is on their side.

After the liberation of Donbas and Lugansk, will come the liberation of everything east of the Dnieper River and the isolation of Odessa and Mykolaiv.

That leaves the Ukraine west of the Dnieper. Which will take time.

Process!

It's a Fibonacci world. There are no straight lines— only spirals.

But the end has already been determined. Ukraine will be Russian again. Not that the West will recognize it! There will be a government in exile. Perhaps Zelensky, perhaps the neo-Nazi Budanov. They will survive. Shit floats.

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Personal note

I love Parrots. They are smart! A lot smarter than most of the people I used to work with. They are great mimics, affectionate – and as you see good at sharing and caring. They are long-lived. And they potty train very fast. I am still not sure if I am properly potty trained.

A word to the wise, however. A parrot is not just a “pet”— it's a companion, a member of the family. They need love.