Russia Rollin' Rollin': The Update

My last article, Russia is On a Roll, needs an update.  Things have changed. Are changing — fast.

Rollin’, rollin’. You know the song.

In previous articles, like The Tao of Vladimir Putin, I explained how Putin uses —or seems to use — classic martial arts strategies on the larger canvas of global conflict, turning attacks against Russia against the attacker.

How does this work?

War as a street fight

In street fights, he who hits first usually wins.

If you are a rational person, you don’t want to start a fight and should always avoid one, if you can. 

But if you really have to fight, the trick is not to get hit in those crucial first few seconds.  You have to be situationally aware. Does your assailant have a knife? Does he have friends? Where are you? Is there anything to use as a weapon?

Even an accomplished martial artist can be done in by a sucker punch— as a very, very drunk Jean Claude Van Damme found out to his regret when knocked down by a club bouncer!  Moral: don’t get drunk. Don’t trashtalk.

Putin does neither. He tried to avoid a fight—to de-escalate — with Ukraine and NATO through negotiation. At the same time, he assessed the situation carefully. But the West took that carefulness as weakness and began preparing to hit the DPR hard, aiming at ethnic erasure.

Russia struck before the UAF could. Then pulled back, to evaluate things.

Situational Awareness

Understanding a situation holistically is the key to success in such situations and while Russia's progress has been slow — it is a winning strategy..

Strategist John Boyd always emphasized the importance of re-orienting yourself after defeating an attack to prevent another. That’s why the OODA (Orient-Observe-Decide-Act) Loop is…a Loop!

When you do something. You have to see if what has changed. It’s a quantum situation. Just observing something changes it.

If your opponent attacks again, you must use their position relative to you, probabilites and use their momentum against them.

As I have said, it’s a mistake to fight when drunk— on anything, in the case of the US and NATO — that overriding, delusionary sense of superiority—which has hurt the Americans in one war after another.

It is also a mistake to over-react as in “shock & awe.

In a street fight, you can get into a lot of trouble if you kill or injure your opponent.In war, you cannot destroy or disrupt a culture without consequences.

Putin knows all this. He does both Judo and Combat Sambo. He has taught both. No one knows Putin’s mind. But certainly his approach to the conflict with US and NATO— which has led to what amounts to world war— seems very much like a conflict between a gang of street bullies and a martial artist.

Despite being outnumbered at the beginning of his “SMO”, his initial strike at the beginning aimed at disarming rather than fatally wounding Western Ukraine. It was a strategic and measured.

And successful. It’s what a martial artist would do.

But then the NeoNazi’s Gang — which Putin had seen in the crowd watching— got involved,. Where possible Gang Leaders get others to do their dirty work.

The US and NATO armed their Kiev thugs. Attacks followed. All unsuccessful. Putin was prepared for a new set of challenges.

Like a good martial artist, Putin used used the Empire’s attacks against them. He did not fight the way they would —or try to emulate their tactics.  

“The best fighter is not a Boxer, Karate or Judo man. The best fighter is someone who can adapt on any style. He kicks too good for a Boxer, throws too good for a Karate man, and punches too good for a Judo man.
--Bruce Lee

How to Defeat the NATO Gang?

Putin needed the UAF to keep on attacking—and a slow war —to win the wider war aginst the gang and establish international credibility, keeping in mind that the “West” is in global terms a minority. .

Here’s a real life example.

I live in Tokyo. A long time ago, a good friend of mine who was studying Aikido was attacked by a drunk on the train. He did not engage—stepping out of the way so the man hit the side of the car —hard. My friend and the guy, who had blood streaming from his face, got off at the next station where both were arrested by the police.

“Did you hit him”, the police asked my friend. “No”, said my friend. “I used Aikido. I just got out of the way”.

“The law says the one who is injured is at fault” said the policeman. “Next time, let him hit you first. Then you can hurt him”.

My friend got off with a warning. But he understood the point.

Sevastopol

The most recent Ukrainian attack– the MI6/ Ukrainian attack on Sevastopol —did no real damage – but the Ukrainians claimed they had sunk a frigate. They hadn’t. The Russians said the attack had been defeated-- but not too loudly.

Like my friend should have done, they let the world perceive them as having been “hit”.

There was not blood — just UAF/ MSM claims of blood. That allowed the RF leverage.

"The highest technique is to have no technique. My technique is a result of your technique; my movement is a result of your movement." ~ Bruce Lee

First, Putin withdrew from the Grain Deal which he had entered into with his always-ally-of-the-moment Erdogan— which was simply not working out since the Empire was not observing its terms. 

The grain was supposed to go to poor countries but less than 4% was going where it was most needed. Instead it was going to the Empire’s vassal states, mostly in Europe and also to Turkey.  

US sanctions made it difficult for Russian ships to carry grain by denying them insurance. 

And the Ukraine and the West were clearlyl using civilian vessels to smuggle in weapons.

In addition to cancelling the Grain Deal, Putin responded by

a.) ramping up attacks on Ukraine’s power grid

b.) wiping out the MI6 base in Ochakiv (the MTR base set up by the British)

c.) floating the possibility of mining the harbors of Odessa or striking terminal facilities.

The last one c) was a feint —helped along the Ukrainian propaganda which accused Russia of attacking grain shipments in Ochakiv, which used to be a naval base when the Ukraine still had a navy and where the UK was trying to establish a military capability that could threaten Sebastopol.

In fact, the Russians hit two tugboats while wiping out the UAF/ MI6 special operations site..

Ochakiv is nowhere near the grain corridor.

Straight lines and circles

Propaganda is a loudspeaker for a lynch mob. It has litle content but it promotes rumors. In this case, the MSM stories drove Internet chatter that the Russians would mine Odessa’s harbor, sinking cargo ships in the Black Sea, and reduce the Odessa terminal facilities to black smoking ruins. Along with giving Viagra to its sailors, as well as its soldiers.

Turkey and Ukriane immediately suspended grain shipments.

Western boxers tend to move in straight lines, except maybe for Mohammed Ali. Judo and Sambo practitioner move in circles.

Putin circled back — he withdrew his withdrawal –sorta.

"Using no way as a way, having no limitation as limitation." ~ Bruce Lee

“Sorta” means not limiting yourself to one way of doing things. You can circle back but to a different point with different possibilities.

Therefore, while Bruce Lee’s comment might sound esoterically “zen” it makes sense.

Western military doctrine emphasizes fixed strategies, in the case of the US, “shock & awe”, which somehow never quite succeeds in the long term.

Adaptability

Bruce Lee emphasized adaptability. If you do not limit yourself to a single “way”, then the only limitation is choice, which depends on an intelligent understanding of the conflict and positioning..

Putin said that he would return to the Grain Deal if – and only if – the terms of the deal were actually observed. 

Of course, he knows that the West is Agreement-Incapable, so the deal won’t be fully implemented no matter what. Still, the compromise is useful

On the one hand, it allows him to take the High Road in the eyes of the world.

In addition, further non-compliance, likely as a result of US connivance— will open up all sorts of opportunities for asymmetric countermesures

Finally, it puts pressure on Turkey— already at odds with US over Greece and other matters such as the US-organized attempted coup against Erdogan.

Naturally, this compromise will be seen as weakness in the Western Media.

Putin doesn’t care about that.

He cares a lot more about the Global South and BRICS, where his principles will win friends and support – and most important of all, trust.    To the extent that the US and EU are “agreement-incapable”, others will turn to Russia and China, who have a record of keeping their promises. It is pretty simple.. And that minimalism is the beauty of it.

"One rule is to not use complicated techniques unless they are necessary to achieve your goal. First, use simple movements, and if they don't work, then introduce the more complex ones." ~ Bruce Lee.

How do we know that Putin’s strategy is effective?

Last gasp strategies

There are signs.

Larry Johnson has written an article about the Americans sending military teams to monitor weapons shipments.  This backed up by excellent analysis at Moon of Alabama. The US/NATO soldiers are going to be in harm’s way of course – which might cover up increased losses in the upcoming Russian offensive. 

Some estimates of NATO losses in Ukraine are as high as 50,000. That’s probably a little high since NATO “volunteers” are used to man HIMARS systems, howitzers and the like— and are not on the front line, which is reserved for Ukrainian conscripts who barely know one end of a gun from the other. When NATO guys are killed their bodies are dumped in a hole without identifying tags.

It is very likely that the British lost men in the attack on their base in Ochakiv. They’re not saying. But it will be harder to hide those losses than the Skripals.

And, if the Russians launch full-scale offensives in late November with four times their current force, there are going to be a lot more NATO losses for sure. 

Bad PR – and also (technically) casus belli sufficient to allow the Russians to attack Polish bases without necessarily triggering Article 5.

NATO and US don’t have the capability for a full scale conflict - and they know it. So why would they want their soldiers in body bags when they have no real intention of fighting a war they could not win?

Once again, this conflict is driven by optics. People are getting tired of it. They are tired of seeing billions going to support political hubris when they need jobs, medical care, education and the like. People like Biden think dead soldiers fan support for his party.

But how to explain to your voters why you aren’t going to fight the Russkies in Ukraine for killing your guys?

Over at MoA, b. notes that Biden has suddenly started talking about the Russians using nukes – again – not to mention using biological and chemical weapons— which only the Americans have since the Russians destroyed all of theirs.

Oh, nuclear war. Everybody dies. Escalate, go to the brink…then back off and offer to talk.

Sounds like a plan. But not a very good one.

Because the Russians are rollin’, rollin’. in month or so, the Russians will be mounting offensives over frozen ground in Eastern Ukraine and other areas. Western Ukraine will be freezing. Germany and Poland will be freezing too — with conditions worsened by the G7’s price cap on oil. Another 4 million refugees from Western Ukriane will be arriving across the border.

And — very likely — the Republicans will be in power in the House.

The Americans are lost in fantasy, as usual

Putin thinks pragmatically. Biden does not know how to think.

"Use only that which works, and take it from any place you can find it." ~ Bruce Lee

Russians don’t want war. Just victory. And you don’t always need war to get that.

Who is Julian Macfarlane

I am 76.  Yes, I know, my profile picture, which is recent, looks younger look younger.  There is a reason my book is called "Ageing Young-- You're Never to Old To Rock and Roll", the title give to me by David Bowie's lead guitarist and songwriter. I write a lot about health issues, ageing successfully and cognitive issues like ASD—and… umm…genius. Recently, I have turned to geopolitical issues.  I have worked in the media for almost 50 years. I was a stringer in Southeast Asia during the Vietnam War.  Then I was in Korea. And after that in Japan where I studied martial arts and Buddhism and I did a lot of things: union organizer, writer, broadcaster, media analyst, beer and pizza.  I am neither Left nor Right. I have trouble with that: tell me to turn right and I may go left and vice versa.  It’s a cognitive disability. Politically, you prefer to say I am "multipolar".  Which is probably what most people are.  People who label themselves "left" or "right" seem to be limiting themselves to an ideology.  Guess that is OK if you are paying membership dues to a political party.  But I don't have money for that.