Setting things right....

Wrong means learning

Wrong meaning learning

Life itself is your teacher, and you are in a state of constant learning. Bruce Lee

Everyone was predicting that Russia would beat the West once again with its "hazel switch" in--Oreshnik--after the ATACMS missile strike on the military airbase close to the Beriev plant.

Instead the Russians launched Ukraine wide missile and drone strikes.

I was wrong again. Not that almost every other analyst online wasn’t wrong as well, including Larry Johnson and even B. at Moon of Alabama who is remarkable for getting things right!

But that’s life. Which as Bruce Lee says means learning.

Massive Air Strikes

This morning, the Russian Armed Forces launched massive strikes against military facilities and the energy infrastructure of Ukraine. They worked with Iskanders, Geraniums and Daggers. At least 120 missiles flew in the direction of the targets. Including:

— It arrived at a closed airfield in Kiev, where future American F-16 pilots are trained, as well as hangars and warehouses with weapons.

— Missiles hit a factory for the production of drones and repair of helicopters in the suburbs of Boryspil.

— An underground warehouse at the military airfield in Starokonstantinov, Khmelnitsky region, has been liquidated.

— There is a arrival at the port in Odessa. Light and water supply were partially lost in the city.

—There are arrivals of cruise and hypersonic missiles in Kiev, Khmelnitsky, Odessa, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Cherkasy regions. Thermal power plants and substations are affected. In the Ternopil region, more than 50% of the population was left without electricity.

Of course, the MSM — Main Silly Media — went with the Zelensky version of events.

Sense and Non-Sense

The Ukrainians say 93 missiles— not 120. Of these they, claim to have shot down 80, including an undisclosed number with F16s, which can carry AMRAAM 120s.

Needless to say the Ukrainian claims are unlikely.

For one thing, the strikes were over the entirety of Ukraine - a huge expanse. Ukraine has 16 F16s, which would probably mean 12 actually operational. The number of Patriot systems is not confirmed perhaps a dozen also —but Zelensky has been saying he cannot defend Ukrainian airspace without 20 more, so it seems to be lacking.

In any case, most of the missiles were Iskanders which are hypersonic and hit the target at 3000 mph with entry speeds high as MACH 8 .

The explosive force of the 700kg warhead is multiplied several times by kinetic energy.

The Kinzhal missile is really an air launched Iskander with enhanced maneuverability and range.

Both hypersonic missiles, like Oroshnik have plasma stealth characteristics and are maneuverable throughout flight— which make them extraordinarily difficult to to acquire or to shoot down, In fact, to date there have been no independently trustworthy, confirmed reports of interception by Patriot missiles-- despite American and Ukrainian claims.

So Ukrainians might've shot down 80 drones. In any case, it now has a very few antimissile defenses left in operation. The UAF has a bad habit of firing off missiles willy-nilly in all directions wasting most of them during strikes — of which there have been many.

In other words the Russian missile strikes were likely to have gotten through —and were precise and effective—not only in destroying their targets but in degrading Ukrainian defenses even further.

How many of their remaining missiles did the Ukrainians waste?

Everything you ever learned was in high school

The question arises why I and the other analysts were wrong about the Russian reply to the recent ATACMS attack, thinking it was Oreshnik.

In my case, it's pretty simple. I may have lived most of my life outside of the “West” so-called —but culturally, I tend to respond as Westerners usually do to threat.

It is something we learn in high school — where everything we call “defense” is usually of defense of image rather than person— an emotional kneejerk response, If you have something “extra”, to respond to attack without getting yourself kicked out of school, demonstrating that prevents further challenges.

But such a mentality is not strategic.

And Putin didn’t learn to fight in high school— but on the mean streets of St. Petersburg which is why he learned Combat Sambo, later judo, both of which combine defense and attack at the same moment.

Defense is attack, attack is defense, each being the cause and result of the other. Bruce Lee

Putin understands Bruce Lee’s dictum on the basis of life experience. Similarly, he understands the importance of focus — and is not easily distracted. No posturing either—in this case, no shock and awe, “in your face, fuck-you-Joe obliteration of a NATO bunker in Lviv.

Instead an country -wide attack that accelerates the end of the war—which speaks for itself.

I don’t know why the other analysts got it wrong. But maybe they went to high school, too.

Is Blame the Game? Or is Shame the Game?

Accountability matters a lot here.

Remember how the NYT, WaPo, the Guardian, the BBC and a hundred others were repeating the mantra....

Biden greenlights ATACMS attack on Russia

Now it should be…

Biden greenlights massive Russian attacks on Ukraine

The message is “we didn’t do this to you, Ukraine – you and Joe did this to you”. Blame goes where blame is due – and is distributed appropriately.

The shame belongs to Joe.

Thse strikes send a meaningful message to the people who matter to Russia right now – Ukrainians. They know who to blame and shame.

Russia wants surrender – unconditional and complete surrender of the fascists now running this much abused polity. They will get it. Too many Russians have died for this.

It doesn’t care what the “West”, ie, the West Wing in Washington thinks – if only because they don’t think at all.

Keeping focused

As I said, the Russians are focused. And realized that the ATACMS strike was an attempt to distract them from finishing off Ukraine— among other things.

The Russians replying with Oroshnik might be spun as “that’s all they have, a couple of old refurbished missiles— they couldn’t help Syria because they’ve used up all their resources— and also eggs are expensive in Moscow, say the media proving the Russian economy is about to collapse.

Actually the price of a dozen eggs is less than $ 2.00 compared to about $4.00 or $5.00 in Washington DC. Muscovites still complain though.

Syria?

Russia did not step back from devoting using its military to help Assad in Syria for lack of jets or missile systems (or eggs) — of which it has more than it needs for Ukraine—always building a surplus in case of war with NATO. It stood back because Assad had given up a long time ago— refusing Russian and Iranian help and advice.

God helps those who help themselves. What’s good enough for God is good enough for Russia.

So, Russia extracted itself smoothly. Its forces have not been attacked so far and its S400 bases on the coastal bases sit safe and secure while the Israelis destroy SAA assets all around. Its warships from Tartus are apparently off the coast in the Mediterranean — with hypersonic missiles.

And Turkey is in the oven, slowly cooking for Xmas. Its problems are now compounding in Syria with both the Americans and Israelis adding to them exponentially. This situation will naturally impose an economic drain and make it ever more dependent on Russia and more likely to compromise with Iran.

Of course: Erdogan always plays all sides—and his need for Russian and Iranian support will not be apparent for a while.

The Putin Promise

Putin, of course, did promise to use Oreshnik if attacked. But I looked at his various statements which were nuanced. He is known for his honesty— but he is a lawyer ! Read the fine print.

He was unequivocal in the case of a major attack. But also unequivocal about “proportionality”.

The attack on the Beriev plant was not a major attack since all of the missiles were shot down and did little damage compared to previous attacks of similar scale. As a result, while Russian vowed “retaliation “ for the most recent strike, it did not say this would involve an Oroshnik missile as many in the blogosphere were saying.

Context

A lot has to do with context - the situation.

If you look at a great painting, remember the foreground depends on the background. Context, background and such things are always important in Russian strategic art. Everything must connect.

Advances in the Donbass

— the pending fall of Pokrovsk direction, where the UAF has sent elite Azov battalions for extermination, -- a major blow to UAF efforts in occupied Donbas since this is key hub.

—advances on all other fronts including Kursk

—Ukrainian casualty rates higher than 3000 per day on average—

—increasingly high rates of desertion in the UAF—

—-the development of armed resistance against UAF especially in the Black Sea region—

—mass migration across the Polish border, somewhere between 3 million and 5 million people, further depopulating Ukraine.

And now de-electrification of Ukraine and a very cold winter.

I should mention that the massive airstrikes probably took out more operational NATO personnel, who are spread across Ukraine mthan a single Oroshnik strike to a bunker would have — eliminating mostly officers, who are mostly dead weight.

Yes, I got it wrong first time round…. A learning experience.

Mistakes are always forgivable, if one has the courage to admit them. Bruce Lee

Or so I hope.

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Coffee Time

So far, Ichi is in hiding. And Chappy too. Negotiations will take a while.

I have discovered that Chappy can jump 2 meters straight up! Buess that expensive hip surgery worked.

And he really wants to explore the outside. Since he is a half -wild feral cat I can’t allow that.

So I must invest in a “cat door”, so he can’t get to the main entrance. A wee bit expensive — but I don’t go out to eat or anything like that— so why not?

Me and my Best Friend.

I will be replying to everyone who has bought coffee soon with my usual, rambling personal messages!

My Special Article on Political Genius has been revised for the umpteenth time and no longer looks anything like what I posted. I need to finish it soon because Putin is doing his year end teleconference Dec. 19th. That’s 4 hours long and there is always a lot to dissect — which will be the basis of another lonnnnnnnggg special article.

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