2. Don't want NATO to analyse more data than they already have.
3. No meaningful targets in terms of cost of giving data away/cost of missile - those MIRVs don't come cheap is my guess.
4. Medium range missiles are a touchy subject - there was a treaty in place until Pumpkin Man rescinded it - they could carry nukes. So not really something you just lob at your enemy, even if you want to.
5. Relates to point 1. If you have loads of other proven, cheaper ways to cause damage-you stick to what you know works.
6. The SMO has been conservative thus far. Even if we as observers want sensational NATO command centres' obliteration, it is not in Russia's best interests to invite any reason for escalation. The SMO is a huge logistical effort - just imagine feeding, clothing, and housing all those troops, and taking care of the dead and injured all along the 1000km front! Then add tyres, fuel, servicing and spare parts for vehicles. Add to that getting small arms ammunition, artillery rounds and barrels to the front line.
It truly does not revolve around flashy new toys like the Oreshnik.
The more stable everything stays, the better, even in war.
Additionally, shock and awe only works if you're the USA fighting an impoverished 3rd world country together with your faithful vassals in NATO for eg. Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia.
It isn't quite the same when you are Russia fighting Ukraine that has 54 countries sending arms,money ($250 billion), mercenaries and economically sanctioning you as well.
Additionally, none of those 3rd world countries were situated on the USA border, and the US wasn't fighting for their existential security.
Their modus operandi was to break every last bit of infrastructure and bomb them into the stone age, without ever having to deal with the consequences.
So the SMO necessitates a completely different approach, since demolishing Ukraine wouldn't make Russia more secure and they aren't fighting a bunch of goatherders with AK 47's.
The goal is attrition and leaving as much intact as possible until a political solution is forced upon Ukraine that will create the kind of order Russia desires on their doorstep.
Thank you. War is only captivating if you are not in it. If one becomes polarized you cannot observe. It leads to wishful thinking. Don't pick sides and look at what they do, we cannot change it anyway.
One concern is the mass introduction and normalization of drones in the common space through this war...another flying machine made popular by war.
Yes soon we wouldn't even bat an eye if people get murdered by drone. It looks just like a video game. Where they used to be rather large expensive killing machines with 200kg missiles that needed Obommer to sign off on who lived and who didn't- now any old quadcopter can be loaded with a bomblet.
What happened in Syria with HTS using drones just doesn't bode well.
Terrorists + drones = a lot more terrorism.
Thanks for your lovely articles and writing style Julian, always an enjoyable read and exchange of ideas.
There is no day that i don't have to adjust my sensing of what's going on and what looks like that it will happen... Mostly concerning the choices of the high Chess players...
So...
Listen to this video by Mahmood OD, about:
- S Y R I A: I R A N + R U S S I A + T Ü R K I Y E - D E A L -
because now we have more Revelations about Iranian involvement and if there was Iranian involvement that means there was hisbollah involvement when it comes to Syria.
So what was that involvement ?
Well the recent statements that came from the Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan -who was the head of the intelligence previously- again clarifying about his agreement between Russia and Iran, before the collapse of Bashar Al Assad.
In his recent televised interview in a Turkish Channel he said: we spoke with the Iranians and Russians about things I do not wish to mention...
now however after it they made contact with Assad and he fled he also added that we warned Israel from continuing attacking Syria...
The authoritative American publication 'Bloomberg', citing its own sources in Damascus, also stated that Russia is likely to be able to retain its main military bases in the western part of Syria.
Meanwhile, on December 14, 🇹🇷Turkish Foreign-Minister (and former head of Security) Hakan Fidan made a rather sensational statement...
2:27:
On December 14th, Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan made a rather Sensational statement.
He officially stated that only thanks to the actions of Turkey the Syrian opposition militants did not meet resistance on their way and were able to capture all the key cities of Syria...
According to him the current situation in the world helped 🇹🇷Turkey convince 🇷🇺Russia and 🇮🇷Iran not to provide military assistance to 🇸🇾Bashar al-Assad,
as a result of which the 🇹🇷Syrian rebels managed to seize power in 🇸🇾Syria without Bloodshed and in a very short period.
So, a Senior Turkish Diplomat/Spy officially confirmed that everything that happened in Syria happened with the tacit approval of Iran and Russia.
The fact that after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad Russia retained its Embassy in Damascus and the main military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim indicates that Vladimir Putin really had some kind of agreement with his Turkish counterpart.
A few days ago President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also hinted that there are agreements between Turkey and Russia.
In an interview with journalists the Turkish leader called Vladimir Putin and himself the most experienced politicians in the world...
My Note:
Russia feared that the Syrian Stockpile of Weapons, Airplanes, Vehicles, Tanks and 2 million Shells would go to Ukraine.
Simple. Don't PREDICT. FORECAST. Forecasting is done based on what you know. If it doesn't come out that whay it is because the was something you didn't know. And now you know it. Apologies are not required. In construction scheduling we forecast, we don't predict. And yes, over the years my forecasting has improved.
Degrading the country's electric/water (etc) supply will piss off the population, especially in Winter. Grind it down, repair, repair again...repeat ... until they get too cold and revolt.
🇷🇺🇸🇾🚨‼️ BREAKING: HTS leader Jolani says he gave Russians a chance to reconsider their relationship with the Syrian people
-> Russia is going to keep the military bases, now it’s looks certain
Early this am I saw an article from an "Israeli" zine claiming Turkey, Iran, it Russia & Assad planned the recent events...there is a longer term strategy in the works. (I can't remember the name, bot Haaretz, not Israel Today, but Israel...something)
You probably get many more things right when it comes to what's going on in Ukraine than I would. I trust your judgment to know how to set things right.
What I piece together from the material presented on this show is the certainty that Orban’s mission to Mar-al-Lago and his subsequent debriefing for Putin had a strong influence on the way that the Kremlin chose to retaliate for the attack on Taganrog. Clearly, as I have said in my interviews this past week, there were options on the table that were sharply escalatory, foremost among them the possibility of an attack using the Oreshkin hypersonic missile against the US missile base in Poland that was the source of great concern and loud complaints by Moscow going back seven years or more when its construction was first announced. Now, from the words of one panelist on this show, it becomes evident that another possibility which the Kremlin was considering was an Oreshkin strike on a decision-making center in Kiev, but one which no one appears to have considered from among my peers in the alternative media: namely a strike on the U.K. embassy in Kiev, which the Russians properly consider to be directing the war that Ukraine is waging. And the Russians have in hand Western precedents, starting with the U.S. ‘accidental’ bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in May, 1999 during the NATO offensive to bring down the Milosevic government.
It is clear to me that Orban was able to provide Putin with persuasive evidence from his talks with Trump, Musk and Waltz that it would be far better to show restraint, not to take the bait from the Biden administration to escalate and thereby not upset Trump’s likely plans to stop funding the war upon taking office. Accordingly, the Russians only ravaged what remains of Ukraine’s power supply and did not touch NATO assets inside or outside Ukraine.
For this, as I say, we all owe a great debt of gratitude to the Hungarian prime minister.
Not only Crooke cites you. Rob Campbell (The Busker) mentioned you in his latest Substack post, right at the beginning. He agrees with you about Syria being a quagmire. So see, you get around.
Growing older means learning. I used to know everything now I know nothing!
Knowing Nothing is the way to be.
"Knowing" creates veils between your eye and reality.
->https://www.occupyschagen.nl/Div/Leegte.png
Sander.
->https://www.occupyschagen.nl/Div/Hoed-afnemen2.jpg
Better to see than to "know".
👍
Bingo!
Reasons not to use Oreshnik missile
1. Experimental, so not ready
2. Don't want NATO to analyse more data than they already have.
3. No meaningful targets in terms of cost of giving data away/cost of missile - those MIRVs don't come cheap is my guess.
4. Medium range missiles are a touchy subject - there was a treaty in place until Pumpkin Man rescinded it - they could carry nukes. So not really something you just lob at your enemy, even if you want to.
5. Relates to point 1. If you have loads of other proven, cheaper ways to cause damage-you stick to what you know works.
6. The SMO has been conservative thus far. Even if we as observers want sensational NATO command centres' obliteration, it is not in Russia's best interests to invite any reason for escalation. The SMO is a huge logistical effort - just imagine feeding, clothing, and housing all those troops, and taking care of the dead and injured all along the 1000km front! Then add tyres, fuel, servicing and spare parts for vehicles. Add to that getting small arms ammunition, artillery rounds and barrels to the front line.
It truly does not revolve around flashy new toys like the Oreshnik.
The more stable everything stays, the better, even in war.
Additionally, shock and awe only works if you're the USA fighting an impoverished 3rd world country together with your faithful vassals in NATO for eg. Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia.
It isn't quite the same when you are Russia fighting Ukraine that has 54 countries sending arms,money ($250 billion), mercenaries and economically sanctioning you as well.
Additionally, none of those 3rd world countries were situated on the USA border, and the US wasn't fighting for their existential security.
Their modus operandi was to break every last bit of infrastructure and bomb them into the stone age, without ever having to deal with the consequences.
So the SMO necessitates a completely different approach, since demolishing Ukraine wouldn't make Russia more secure and they aren't fighting a bunch of goatherders with AK 47's.
The goal is attrition and leaving as much intact as possible until a political solution is forced upon Ukraine that will create the kind of order Russia desires on their doorstep.
It's all quite obvious.
All very good points. Thank you.
An extremely intelligent—and rare—comment.
Thank you. War is only captivating if you are not in it. If one becomes polarized you cannot observe. It leads to wishful thinking. Don't pick sides and look at what they do, we cannot change it anyway.
One concern is the mass introduction and normalization of drones in the common space through this war...another flying machine made popular by war.
Yes, drones are to this war as aircraft were to WWI.
Yes soon we wouldn't even bat an eye if people get murdered by drone. It looks just like a video game. Where they used to be rather large expensive killing machines with 200kg missiles that needed Obommer to sign off on who lived and who didn't- now any old quadcopter can be loaded with a bomblet.
What happened in Syria with HTS using drones just doesn't bode well.
Terrorists + drones = a lot more terrorism.
Thanks for your lovely articles and writing style Julian, always an enjoyable read and exchange of ideas.
Setting things right... ?
There is no day that i don't have to adjust my sensing of what's going on and what looks like that it will happen... Mostly concerning the choices of the high Chess players...
So...
Listen to this video by Mahmood OD, about:
- S Y R I A: I R A N + R U S S I A + T Ü R K I Y E - D E A L -
🚨The Deal REVEALED !
🇮🇷Iran also Part of 🇸🇾SYRIAN-GOV’T Talks.
As is 🇾🇪Yemen...
DON’T LET The Psyops Fool You!:
X+YT->https://x.com/OccupySchagen/status/1868002735905284096
At least an opinion to think about. My sensing gives it the first+50% probability until now:
In words: certainly probable...
Sander.
PS. When it looks like a deal and it smells like a deal and they behave like in a deal, there is probably a deal...🤔
PS. New info...
🇵🇸MAHMOOD-OD. Dec 15. Highly Recommended.
- N E W S Y R I A N P A C T S & T I E S -
🚨New 🇸🇾Syrian Government Declares
Defence-Pacts & Strategic Military Ties...
Video starts at right point.
->https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdPNnC0McFc&t=724s
This is important:
14:56
because now we have more Revelations about Iranian involvement and if there was Iranian involvement that means there was hisbollah involvement when it comes to Syria.
So what was that involvement ?
Well the recent statements that came from the Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan -who was the head of the intelligence previously- again clarifying about his agreement between Russia and Iran, before the collapse of Bashar Al Assad.
In his recent televised interview in a Turkish Channel he said: we spoke with the Iranians and Russians about things I do not wish to mention...
now however after it they made contact with Assad and he fled he also added that we warned Israel from continuing attacking Syria...
Sander
Another update...
BORZZIKMAN. 🇷🇺Russia. Dec 16. Approved.
R U S S I A N - C H E S S - G A M E - I N - S Y R I A
CHECK and MATE ❓:
🇷🇺Putin Skillfully Outplayed the West in 🇸🇾SYRIA ⁉️
🇮🇱Israel Framed The 🇺🇸US after Putin's Call:
..
->https://youtu.be/Dq8J2yXWCwA?si=Yj9B-7GTHdaeFH7R
..
The authoritative American publication 'Bloomberg', citing its own sources in Damascus, also stated that Russia is likely to be able to retain its main military bases in the western part of Syria.
Meanwhile, on December 14, 🇹🇷Turkish Foreign-Minister (and former head of Security) Hakan Fidan made a rather sensational statement...
2:27:
On December 14th, Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan made a rather Sensational statement.
He officially stated that only thanks to the actions of Turkey the Syrian opposition militants did not meet resistance on their way and were able to capture all the key cities of Syria...
According to him the current situation in the world helped 🇹🇷Turkey convince 🇷🇺Russia and 🇮🇷Iran not to provide military assistance to 🇸🇾Bashar al-Assad,
as a result of which the 🇹🇷Syrian rebels managed to seize power in 🇸🇾Syria without Bloodshed and in a very short period.
So, a Senior Turkish Diplomat/Spy officially confirmed that everything that happened in Syria happened with the tacit approval of Iran and Russia.
The fact that after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad Russia retained its Embassy in Damascus and the main military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim indicates that Vladimir Putin really had some kind of agreement with his Turkish counterpart.
A few days ago President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also hinted that there are agreements between Turkey and Russia.
In an interview with journalists the Turkish leader called Vladimir Putin and himself the most experienced politicians in the world...
My Note:
Russia feared that the Syrian Stockpile of Weapons, Airplanes, Vehicles, Tanks and 2 million Shells would go to Ukraine.
Somehow Israel was prepared to help prevent that.
I don't know what was offered to them.
Interesting isn't it ?
Sander
Simple. Don't PREDICT. FORECAST. Forecasting is done based on what you know. If it doesn't come out that whay it is because the was something you didn't know. And now you know it. Apologies are not required. In construction scheduling we forecast, we don't predict. And yes, over the years my forecasting has improved.
Ummm... like weather forecasting? :)
Exactly. It is based on their knowledge of previous recorded patterns.
My point is, you don't need to apologize.
You have the resume.
Simply add the variables you did not know at the time for all of our benefit in follow-up posts.
Degrading the country's electric/water (etc) supply will piss off the population, especially in Winter. Grind it down, repair, repair again...repeat ... until they get too cold and revolt.
Hot off the press:
Lord Bebo
@MyLordBebo
🇷🇺🇸🇾🚨‼️ BREAKING: HTS leader Jolani says he gave Russians a chance to reconsider their relationship with the Syrian people
-> Russia is going to keep the military bases, now it’s looks certain
Early this am I saw an article from an "Israeli" zine claiming Turkey, Iran, it Russia & Assad planned the recent events...there is a longer term strategy in the works. (I can't remember the name, bot Haaretz, not Israel Today, but Israel...something)
Not "Israeli something" lol. Jerusalem Post.
Just found it!
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-833382
I don't believe your door will stop your cat. They are built to get through incredibly small spaces, explained here: https://www.livescience.com/how-cats-squeeze-through-small-spaces#
As seen here: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cimcqIBSc10
You probably get many more things right when it comes to what's going on in Ukraine than I would. I trust your judgment to know how to set things right.
What you did not know:
What I piece together from the material presented on this show is the certainty that Orban’s mission to Mar-al-Lago and his subsequent debriefing for Putin had a strong influence on the way that the Kremlin chose to retaliate for the attack on Taganrog. Clearly, as I have said in my interviews this past week, there were options on the table that were sharply escalatory, foremost among them the possibility of an attack using the Oreshkin hypersonic missile against the US missile base in Poland that was the source of great concern and loud complaints by Moscow going back seven years or more when its construction was first announced. Now, from the words of one panelist on this show, it becomes evident that another possibility which the Kremlin was considering was an Oreshkin strike on a decision-making center in Kiev, but one which no one appears to have considered from among my peers in the alternative media: namely a strike on the U.K. embassy in Kiev, which the Russians properly consider to be directing the war that Ukraine is waging. And the Russians have in hand Western precedents, starting with the U.S. ‘accidental’ bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in May, 1999 during the NATO offensive to bring down the Milosevic government.
It is clear to me that Orban was able to provide Putin with persuasive evidence from his talks with Trump, Musk and Waltz that it would be far better to show restraint, not to take the bait from the Biden administration to escalate and thereby not upset Trump’s likely plans to stop funding the war upon taking office. Accordingly, the Russians only ravaged what remains of Ukraine’s power supply and did not touch NATO assets inside or outside Ukraine.
For this, as I say, we all owe a great debt of gratitude to the Hungarian prime minister.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
Not only Crooke cites you. Rob Campbell (The Busker) mentioned you in his latest Substack post, right at the beginning. He agrees with you about Syria being a quagmire. So see, you get around.
Simple question: Why are the USA using 'terrorists' to fight their wars?
NO body bags in the USA!
Solid analysis, Julian.
Above all, VVP is a pragmatist. There is probably some serious messages sent among the plethora of missiles that hit Ukraine in the strike.
NATO training facilities, officer concentrations, etc.