My understanding of AA missile guidance, targeting sensor technologies and guidance/control algorithms suggest that a large civilian plane with no onboard countermeasure systems would receive such an attack as strike on a hot engine surface or a proximity triggered burst AT FRONT of aircraft.
The pictures available showing apparent fragment impacts to tail surfaces may not be the whole of damages, however the pilots managed to control the craft somewhat effectively using only flaps and varying the two engines relative thrust. This suggests control of systems in aircraft forward areas was not compromised, only use of the empennage control surfaces was lost.
They lost control near the end when it was necessary to cut back power on the engines, reduced air speed for landing and so lost much of the energy inputs from engine and wing surfaces required to control direction, pitch and attitude.
Those pilots did an amazing job to get the bird down without killing everyone. I would very much like to know what is on the voice recorder from cockpit, though it would probably give me nightmares to hear.
I agree with you. The Pantsir system combines radio command mid course correction and infrared terminal homing with both proximity and impact fusing.. Normally, it would home on the engines as hot spots but proximity fusing means it could explode behind the engines. However, the damage was to apparently mostly to the vertical stabilizer. MANPADS use proximity fusing as well. The difference between Pantsir and MANPADs i Pantsir's radar, EW characteristics, range, speed , course correction and larger warhead.. In other words, it is much more likely this was a MANPAD. Bird strike is possible but both engines were controllable as you say and bird strike would put at least one engine out of commission. So we are left with an explosion affecting the rear surfaces.
Everyone is looking only at the MISSILE component of Pantsir and neglecting to consider the 30mm gun system? The 30mm shells are contact fuzed BUT also have a self destruct feature to prevent misses from being too dangerous.
You may recall the Somali tactic of firing RPG7 rounds as anti aircraft weapons via the area fragmentation effects produced at their self destruct distance, famously knocking down US helicopters at Mogadishu?
If an aircraft were in the vicinity of a burst of such 30mm projectiles (which had not hit a target) at time they self destructed? Such an aircraft could encounter some random shrapnel. The bursts fired by this system can be quite long, one assumes that the self destruct timing is fairly uniform, the area in which numerous projectiles were self destructing would be QUITE unhealthy.
Negotiations are just political ritual. This conflict can only be solved by the Russians winning the war and preventing what we call "Ukraine" from ever again being used by the West as a tool of war -- military or otherwise. The Russians will opt for the Vietnam solution -- keep negotiations going as face-saving for the other side while prosecuting the war to its ultimate conclusion.
If you like I'll gift you a free month that he's giving to subscribers to promote his stuff. You could get a college level course in correct twentieth century history for free. One of his unique points is that He's distilling and translating the views of Slavic nationalists.
Truman’s biggest crime was being the President that officially recognised Israel despite the serious misgivings of every important official in Washington, especially Marshall, without this I doubt they’d have got there country going the way they wanted it. Wonder how much was in that suitcase?
As for the plane crash, as far as NATO ‘the west’ is concerned Russia did it, but I’d guess NATO/Ukraine deliberately pointed there drone at an Azeri plane to cause more neighbourly problems for Putin. They did get the Malay plane shot down and killed all the passengers. The UKROP pilot and air traffic controllers eloped to Dubai the next day, fancy that?
Ron Unz claims Truman's daughter reported her father getting a highly toxic warning letter prior to his decision. Those interested can do their own research.
A closeup photo with 3 shrapnel holes showed the holes with the metal around the holes flared to the outside of the fuselage like the projectiles travelled from inside to outside the plane. Why is that?
My understanding of AA missile guidance, targeting sensor technologies and guidance/control algorithms suggest that a large civilian plane with no onboard countermeasure systems would receive such an attack as strike on a hot engine surface or a proximity triggered burst AT FRONT of aircraft.
The pictures available showing apparent fragment impacts to tail surfaces may not be the whole of damages, however the pilots managed to control the craft somewhat effectively using only flaps and varying the two engines relative thrust. This suggests control of systems in aircraft forward areas was not compromised, only use of the empennage control surfaces was lost.
They lost control near the end when it was necessary to cut back power on the engines, reduced air speed for landing and so lost much of the energy inputs from engine and wing surfaces required to control direction, pitch and attitude.
Those pilots did an amazing job to get the bird down without killing everyone. I would very much like to know what is on the voice recorder from cockpit, though it would probably give me nightmares to hear.
I agree with you. The Pantsir system combines radio command mid course correction and infrared terminal homing with both proximity and impact fusing.. Normally, it would home on the engines as hot spots but proximity fusing means it could explode behind the engines. However, the damage was to apparently mostly to the vertical stabilizer. MANPADS use proximity fusing as well. The difference between Pantsir and MANPADs i Pantsir's radar, EW characteristics, range, speed , course correction and larger warhead.. In other words, it is much more likely this was a MANPAD. Bird strike is possible but both engines were controllable as you say and bird strike would put at least one engine out of commission. So we are left with an explosion affecting the rear surfaces.
@Julian Macfarlane
Everyone is looking only at the MISSILE component of Pantsir and neglecting to consider the 30mm gun system? The 30mm shells are contact fuzed BUT also have a self destruct feature to prevent misses from being too dangerous.
You may recall the Somali tactic of firing RPG7 rounds as anti aircraft weapons via the area fragmentation effects produced at their self destruct distance, famously knocking down US helicopters at Mogadishu?
If an aircraft were in the vicinity of a burst of such 30mm projectiles (which had not hit a target) at time they self destructed? Such an aircraft could encounter some random shrapnel. The bursts fired by this system can be quite long, one assumes that the self destruct timing is fairly uniform, the area in which numerous projectiles were self destructing would be QUITE unhealthy.
You can always count on wild assertions from the wild Western news media account of what happens anywhere in the world.
It must be Putins fault.
And if it's not Putins fault, then it must be Xi Jinpings fault.
The Empire of Lies believes it's own propaganda.
Meanwhile, the collapsing empire is dying as it rots from within.
But wait, Julius Caesar intends to save it beginning January 21, 2025.
Happy chappy New Year!
Shows NATO is escalating its war with attacks upon non military assets.
Sinking of Russian military freighter off Gibraltar, seizing the UAE oil tanker in the Baltic by Finish Commandos .
Nordstream ???
Blame the Russians!
To think of peace negotiations for the Ukraine War is for social fools.
Negotiations are just political ritual. This conflict can only be solved by the Russians winning the war and preventing what we call "Ukraine" from ever again being used by the West as a tool of war -- military or otherwise. The Russians will opt for the Vietnam solution -- keep negotiations going as face-saving for the other side while prosecuting the war to its ultimate conclusion.
Yay Chappy 🤗
Julian, check out Rurik Skywalker on Putin: https://slavlandchronicles.substack.com/p/putin-is-to-blame-for-zelensky-because .
Doesn't relate to your article, but is important.
If you like I'll gift you a free month that he's giving to subscribers to promote his stuff. You could get a college level course in correct twentieth century history for free. One of his unique points is that He's distilling and translating the views of Slavic nationalists.
Truman’s biggest crime was being the President that officially recognised Israel despite the serious misgivings of every important official in Washington, especially Marshall, without this I doubt they’d have got there country going the way they wanted it. Wonder how much was in that suitcase?
As for the plane crash, as far as NATO ‘the west’ is concerned Russia did it, but I’d guess NATO/Ukraine deliberately pointed there drone at an Azeri plane to cause more neighbourly problems for Putin. They did get the Malay plane shot down and killed all the passengers. The UKROP pilot and air traffic controllers eloped to Dubai the next day, fancy that?
Ron Unz claims Truman's daughter reported her father getting a highly toxic warning letter prior to his decision. Those interested can do their own research.
A closeup photo with 3 shrapnel holes showed the holes with the metal around the holes flared to the outside of the fuselage like the projectiles travelled from inside to outside the plane. Why is that?
> 2025 Coming
First, a happy New Year to everyone. Less than two days left ...
But 2025, wasn't there something about that ?!?
... yes, of course.
The (in)famous Deagel forecast for 2025, making quite a few waves in the "conspicary theorist" community about 5 years ago ;-)
You can blame Putin without a doubt, always, every time.
It just doesn't seem to make any difference. Lose they will. Tick tock, tick tock.
If the milk sours, blame Putin.