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Tom Welsh's avatar

I am very pleased to see polite disagreements between people like Julian, Simplicius, Big Serge, Andrei Martyanov (who, if I remember rightly, once made a mistake very long ago!), John Helmer, the Duran, etc. That is the best way of getting at the truth - as long as the debate is civil, orderly, and sensible. We should all be ready to admit and acknowledge our mistakes, and to weigh the facts and our opinions against those of others. Let discussion thrive!

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Julian Macfarlane's avatar

It think it is important to be civil. I may disagree with people like Simplicius, or Andre or Larry J or the Duran--but they are all making important contributions .

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cm's avatar

I like simplicius. He does a great job with Ukraine war imo. But when it comes to the mideast i seem to find him 50/50. Don't seem like he does a thorough analysis of the mideast as he does Ukraine.

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Julian Macfarlane's avatar

Hmmm...seems that way. He is definitely better on the SMO -- although still too much in a hurry to get stuff out there, whatever the sources.

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m.teresa19.mar.48@gmail.com's avatar

Julian my dear! I'm still laughing. Your articles are just like the chocolate. We read them always. You know i'm a poor portuguese woman and I don't know english properly. But I love you. Shared!

Thanks for your work.

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Julian Macfarlane's avatar

There is so much suffering in the world, we need a little chocolate to survive.

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Julian Macfarlane's avatar

I fold.....

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Julian Macfarlane's avatar

Oh my, I'm out of the game!

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Loon's avatar

Nice nitpicking analysis of Simplicus.

Iran didn’t notify anyone makes sense here.

Density of details isn’t analysis.

Just AI.

Watched the footage of the strikes and the Iron Dome appeared to be out of rockets compared with earlier strike footage.

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Julian Macfarlane's avatar

Some people say the strikes were just interceptors raining down shrapnel. But shrapnel doesn't usually cause huge explosions on impact.

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Occupy Schagen's avatar

Lies and the manipulation of Truth.

Many people can detect some forms of Lies and Lying, but not all. I certainly am very bad in that.

But words that are used to hide Truth and/or are meant to cheat you, are NOT the normal words people use. They are manipulative words, to hide intentions. They have more than one meaning.

Being Autistic, i recognize the use of that kind of words (mostly concepts), because i normally have problems understanding which of the multiple meanings of such words are to be used in that case.

What it does however, is that the difference with "normal sayings" marks some "Intention" to confuse.

Those intentions i register somewhere in my "thinking in pictures" mind.

"Where is FOG about meanings created ?" What does it say of Intentions ?

This is the way my mind works and i use it without understanding it. But in practice it works fine.

Of Course, the more facts i learn and the more "Narratives" that use lies and masking, the better i can estimate the probabilities that intentions of persons/organisations (Media/Governments/Politicians) may become truth...

When a Narrative is made to hide a certain fact or intention, the whole narrative is full of pointers pointing at that intention. But they do that by pointing just the other way, but with (for most people hidden) signalling that it is not true.

OK.

My cent...

Sander

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Julian Macfarlane's avatar

I also think in pictures. Words are brush strokes. Lies destroy balance and form and smear the picture,

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J. Matson Heininger's avatar

This is a must read, must examine, must think about, must do something, and do something about immediately post. Please read. https://open.substack.com/pub/heininger/p/tipping-point-how-middle-eastern?r=16lm0&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

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Julian Macfarlane's avatar

Thank you for this,

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Surviving the Billionaire Wars's avatar

Please stop spamming.

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J. Matson Heininger's avatar

I believing spamming has to do with soliciting or trying to gain exposure in order to make money. Both of my substacks are free. The novel (for now) and this one. When I arbitrarily share from it, as I did here, it is because I think the issue is of major importance to the wellbeing of humanity. Nevertheless, I apologize if it bothered you. Be Well.

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Julian Macfarlane's avatar

I don't think you are spamming. But I think that "Surviving" wants you to connect what you have written in your article, to the current discussion somehow. Having looked at your article I see the connection, of course. But my interpretation might not be yours!

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Paul Haeder's avatar

All Saturday Night Live bullshit. The satellites have it. Russia and the Axis of Resistance are colonized and ain't connected to AWACs and satellites and those 900 military bases and murder staging outposts 5 and 9 and now 14 Eyes are utilizing.

Billionaire continuing criminal enterprises run by the Jews of the Century and other freaks like aspirational Jew Wannabe Musk, the snookered the world a decade ago, even farther back when Mossad and Larry Silverstein danced after their NYC Jewish Nightmare of 9!11!

Fuck them all. Bounties on all their heads.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/10/03/starlink-in-yemen-a-trojan-horse-for-espionage/

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Ben's avatar

Bit weird to spend half your stack discrediting another analyst- but you do you I guess 🤷🏾‍♂️

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Tom Welsh's avatar

He's not "discrediting" anyone. A major problem with today's society is that people have forgotten - if they ever knew - that one can have disagreements about the most important matters without losing respect for one another. Julian pointed out a few small weaknesses or inaccuracies in Simplicius' statements. That's a process known as "debate", in which mistakes, oversights, and misinterpretations get identified and fixed. Like debugging software.

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Troy  Skaggs's avatar

Great comment.

I read quite a bit of what Simplicius puts out. It's good work, but it's not the end all and be all of information sources (don't tell that to some of his/their followers, some of them are nutcases). There's a definite slant, one that I can appreciate, but a slant nonetheless.

It's impossible to think that any "dissident" or independent information or analysis from any one source is the final take. I feel like finding a variety of sources (forums are becoming limited, I worry about Substack's future sometimes...) from authors, aggregates and analysts who I trust and then comparing takes leads to a kind of subconscious triangulation where I feel like I have a somewhat accurate take on things. It takes work and my point of view changes regularly as I incorporate new information, but I feel like an ability to realize that I'll never have the full picture as Julian alludes to leads to more honest analysis.

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Surviving the Billionaire Wars's avatar

Thank you.

I've followed Simplicius since he was Nightwatcher at the Saker.

As Nightwatcher, his posts were much more succinct and they were a light in the darkness. Lately he's seemed "off." I think trying too hard to be all things to all people, & afraid of making a mistake so ends up contradicting himself.

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Oct 3
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Julian Macfarlane's avatar

The Iranians say they hit 20 F35s. The Israelis say none. Satellite evidence suggests up to 10 hangers. My guess is about 5. Perhaps a half billion dollars worth. Unless, of course, the Israelis were storying old bicycles and magazines in those hardened shelters with the holes n them.

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