The ME: connecting dots

To figure out the news, you must connect a lot of dots.

The big news this week is centered on the Middle East-- the Houthis’ hypersonic missile attack on Tel Aviv-- and Tel Aviv's cyber terror attack on Hezbollah, with a mass bombing that injured up to 2000 people, as a result of exploding pagers.

The Americans were clearly in the know-- if not actually involved. American “specialists” in the ME all dumped their pagers before the attack. Of course, the Israelis said they did not warn them.. So…guess those “specialists” just wanted to buy Huawei stuff.

Dots, dots, dots…..

An ASD brain

So many things happening at the same time — suspiciously.

The mainstream media are trying to propagate the idea that the Iranians will not carry out their promised retaliation--that they are afraid of a war like the one with Iraq which went on for years, and killed close to a million of their people.

This is typical Western thinking—more correctly, non-thinking— cognitive avoidance—conflating past wars and strategies with contemporary military challenges to argue outcomes that fit a self-serving narrative.

War between Iran and the West and Israel today would obviously be nothing like war between Iran and Iraq 1980~1988 which began with an Iraqi invasion of Iran. While the US, of course, supported Iraq and supplied Saddam with chemical weapons it was pretty much a stalemate. And once the war was done -- so too was Saddam --something that would be American allies should think about! Pretty much typical of a lot of American wars.

In 1980 Iran was isolated – without allies . Today, it is Israel and the US that are isolated! Let’s just say, the US does not have allies —just sepoys.

But Iran right now, has loads of allies.

As a result of the Palestinian genocide, Shia Iraq is an Iranian ally. Russia is too—although for different reasons. Ditto: China.

Hezbollah, Syria--, and of course Hamas— are allies.

The Arab Street? Not so much pro Iran as pro-Islam-- and anti-Israel. Potential allies?

Connect the dots.

Recent parliamentary elections in Jordan resulted in populist and tribal Islamic factions forming the Islamic Action Front (IAF) nnd taking control of the government to put pressure on the King of Jordan, whose throne increasingly teeters shakily. Jordan as you recall is largely Palestinian and it has the longest border with Israel of any country. The monarchy was set up by the British back in the days when the United Kingdom was united..

In other countries beyond Jordan, the Arab Street is also on the move, increasingly vociferous in its hatred of Israel and the US.

That includes Egypt, of course, and Saudi Arabia. If US inspired Color Revolutions taught us anything. it is that populist opinion matters—especially if it catches on and the military decides to go with the flow.

In 1980, Iran was not prepared for the kind of war waged against it by the US and Iraq. Today Israel and the US are not prepared for the kind of war that Iran would wage against them. What goes ‘round…..

That single missile strike by the Houthis was a warning. Imagine a few hundred much more advanced missiles—with the advantage of Russian targeting and guidance systems— launched at Israel and the US fleet in the Red Sea.

But this is the Multipolar Age-- an era that prioritizes peaceful cooperation and collaboration. So while Iran must retaliate against Israel in some way, it wants Israel to be the one to start the war which will then be for Iran a war of self-defense . In any case, Israel has a bad case of war-lust.

Israel is doing its best to try and get Iran to attack. No doubt it thinks that if it starts a war with Hezbollah, through terrorist bombings for example, Iran will rush in to help. But Hezbollah doesn't need any help: it has thousands of rockets hidden away-- some of them very advanced. Its attacks in Israel —so far —have been very restrained and proportionate . You can expect it to retaliate but not as the Israelis want.

Connect the dots.

The can is being kicked down the road. But for how long?

In response to Israeli terrorist attacks, there will likely be terrorist or guerilla attacks on Israel by Islamic proxies for Iran and Hezbollah-- the Axis of Resistance, the Houthis, and Hamas-- maybe also Jordanian groups .

In Jordan, Maher al Jazi, a truck driver and ex-soldier set an example for the Islamic world when he shot 3 Israeli Security officers at Allenby Crossing, was killed, and then celebrated in Jordan and across the region as a hero.

His feat was a key factor in the parliamentary victory of Jordan's Islamic Action Front (IAF).

The US maintains a base in Jordan -- Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (Azraq). The IAF will likely demand its removal. The powerful Jordanian military will likely not oppose that. Neutrality can mean tacit support.

Maher had been a soldier and his action will resonate with the rank and file of Arab militaries putting pressure on their officers .

Are the ZioNazis worried ?

Worried enough to start digging a trench along the Jordanian border to prevent ingress, they say, of armed gunmen until an electrified border wall can be built.

Dots, dots, dots….

A lot of things are changing and changing very fast – which is no doubt why the ZioNazis resorted to using pagers as bombs!

They are desperate – and also stupid-- Masada 2.0.

Just in…

Will Israel get the war it wants?

What I wake up to…

This is what I wake up to. On waking, Ichi sets about grooming my beard for me. and talks to me. He has a vocabulary of about 100 meows, with specific meanings. He’s autistic, of course - as all cats are.

Finally, someone who understands me!

Still working the Special Article and have ideas for the next one. Occupy Schagen suggests the End of Science or the End of Logic .

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