The Wagner Crash: Forensics (Revised)

A comprehensive look

In forensic analysis, you first look at evidence – what you know.  It’s like a crime scene.  There’s a body. You must look at that. But you have to look around for clues.  Then put it altogether.  Elementary my Dear Watson.   Except in the case of plane crashes.

Russian plane crash Egypt

The Western Media – and even many in the alternative media rushed to judgement—for the most part not taking time to consider the evidence. A good ol’fashioned mob. Lynchings as entertainment. Bring the kids.

The Evidence

Radar

Flightradar24:

After leveling off at 28,000 feet at 15:10 UTC, the aircraft continued in level flight at consistent speed until 15:19 UTC at which point the vertical rate decreases dramatically and the aircraft descends briefly before climbing to a maximum altitude of 30,100 feet before descending back to roughly 27,500 feet. It again climbs, reaching 29,300 feet before leveling off once again. It then descends, with the final data received at 15:20:14 UTC at an altitude of 19,725 feet. The altitude graph below shows the final 32 seconds of received altitude data.  

The location of the lost wing and tail indicate that it lost them; then dived to the ground. They were found some perhaps a kilometer or two from the site where the fuselage hit.

From Ria Novosti (Remember don’t trust Sputnik!)

Witness Reports

The Western media report two explosions within a short time of each other, drawing on Russian reports, which they normally diss’ as misinformation.

But this is what the witness, the basis for these reports--a woman from Kuzhenkino told the much-maligned RIA Novosti ---

… she heard an airplane near her house, which is located about 1,000 feet from the place where the tail part of the Embraer is now lying.

“Then came something like a bang, like a shot. Then suddenly an explosion, I look up and heard a sound above me - it was like pops, like several explosions,” she said. “The plane started to swerve. Then a plume of smoke emerged, and the plane began to descend, to dive.”

In other words: a “bang”, a larger sound -- a clear “explosion” – then “pops” which the witness interpreted as small explosions.    A series of “explosive’ events, assuming witness testimony is correct.

Video shows one wing pretty much intact torn off at the wheel well, which is relatively intact.  The vertical stabilizer is shown more or less intact some distance away.   

Prior to takeoff, the plane had been checked with bomb sniffing dogs, ostensibly because a crate of wine was being taken on board. However, a bomb sniffing dog would have most likely detected a bomb anywhere on the plane.  Bomb sniffing dogs are chosen for their noses, which can detect objects or people as far away as 20 kilometers.

Lukashenko says Prigozhin had been warned of possible assassination attempts so was being extra careful.   He clearly does not trust the GRU or SVR and has his own well-trained security team.

Russian air defense systems were active in this region, which has the most advanced radar systems and operators in the country to counter drones.  However, drones have a very different radar signature than an Embraer since they are much smaller, fly at low altitudes (with a few exceptions) and always more slowly.  The area has a lot of air traffic.

There were no reports of lightning – which would not be unusual because atmospheric lightning strikes are generally not predictable and often occur without any warning at high altitudes and are unreported – which is to say, there might have been – but nobody knows.  And can be catastrophic. There are lots of lightning strikes in the region.

                 Russian airliner brought down by lightning.

The Black Boxes

Will the Black Boxes tell us anything. Hard to say.  The Black Boxes, if their data survived the crash, will have recordings of audio – pilots, passengers, bangs and pops and so on for the last 30 minutes.  They will also have recorded whatever showed on the pilot’s instrument panel. But that’s all.  We may not be any wiser after the data is decoded and analyzed.

What the evidence tells us

Given the evidence these are the possibilities.

1.  An accident:

a.) metal fatigue

b.) engine failure

c.) fuel tank explosion

d.) lightning strike

2. A missile strike

a.) A crazy or drunken operator (unlikely)

b,) A direct order from above (unlikely)

3.) A bomb

a.)  Putin “getting even” (unlikely)

b.) the GRU “getting even” (unlikely)

c.) the SVR “getting even” (unlikely)

d.) the Ukrainians (unlikely)

e.) the CIA (unlikely)

f.)  MI6 (unlikely)

g.) someone in Wagner (possible)

Is there evidence for any of these things? At this point, no.

Given the evidence at this point, an accident or a bomb attack set off by a Wagner person, possibly in the security detail are the most likely causes, with an accident ahead in probability.

Why an accident?

The Western media have gone to great lengths to pooh-pooh that idea, citing “experts” who say that Embraer jets have only crashed once in recent memory – and that, as a result of collision.

In fact, there have been 14 Embraer crashes.  But only one crash of the 600 (legacy) model.  So, this widely reported comment is disingenuous to say the least!  The crash shown here was in Henan. 42 people died.

The most recent crash was 2020, East African Airways. It killed all 6 people on board.

The effect of sanctions

But the prestigious Council on Foreign Relations rather let the cat out of bag when it tried to dismiss the importance of the maintenance issues caused by sanctions—and therefore drew attention to them.

The Wagner Jet was an old aircraft (2007) with a lot of use but not serviced by Embraer since 2019.  Lack of parts and service would also apply to its Rolls Royce engines.

Very likely the aircraft missed it mandated “D” check by a couple of years.  That’s the months long check – basically a refurbishment—required for commercial airliners every 6 years.  It was an accident waiting to happen.

Engine failure

Rolls Royce has a long history of engine failures. That’s not such a big problem if the engines are slung under the wings Engine failure can result in them flaming out and expelling debris to the rear but that is unlikely to affect control surfaces and the fuel system of the other engine or engines since wing fuel tanks are in separated tanks, allowing for effective isolation.

With the Embraer 600, an explosion in an engine may affect the tail unit structure and fuel lines to the fuel tanks, which are in the wings and just in front and behind the wings, connecting to the engines in the back.

In addition, when engines are slung from the wings, the wings have to be reinforced and are generally thicker.  

An engine failure or fuel system explosion caused by electric ignition including lightning could lead to loss of control and maneuvers beyond the aircraft’s G limits, which is just over 2 G, allowing banks of no more than 66 degrees.  Beyond that the aircraft would lose a wing.

This aircraft might be smaller than a Boeing 747, but downsizing a jet means that smaller problems can have bigger consequences.  Think of your smartphone.

Still, the Western Media does not want to distract from its main story line in Putin as Dr. Evil.

 The Assassination Scenario

As we have seen, it is most unlikely that the Wagner jet was brought down by a Russian missile. 

First of all, a shootdown order might well have been disobeyed by the missile operator.  That kind of thing happened at least twice before during the Soviet era, preventing nuclear war in the refusal of Stanislav Petrov and Vasily Arkhipov to follow orders.  In any case, such an order in today’s slightly anarchistic Russia would be impossible to keep quiet.

That makes a bomb more likely. But when and where?

If it was a bomb it would have to been placed after the security team and bomb sniffing team had done their jobs.    They naturally would also have examined the outside of the jet and wheel wells.  So there would be a very short window of opportunity just before takeoff when the jet was on the tarmac— fully visible. 

A bomb in the wheel wells has been suggested – blowing off one wing, which then hit the tail of the aircraft.  However, the wing found on the ground showed no signs of the kind of metal fragmentation you would expect from a bomb. In addition, had it blown off in flight and destroyed the tail, the damage would have been immediately catastrophic with the plane spinning and falling directly without the time lag shown by radar.   

Furthermore, you can’t just walk under the jet and put a bomb in the wheel wells without being seen.

These caveats do not mean that there wasn’t a bomb—even in the wheel wells. They just raise doubts—which are basic to forensics.

Putin the Killer?

Putin is not into assassination.  He’s a lawyer. Legalistic.

If he wanted Prigozhin gone, he would have just followed through on Prigozhin’s indictment and sent him to prison.  But, as he has himself pointed out, for all Prigozhin’s weaknesses and mistakes, he was very useful.  He needed him alive.  Putin is not vindictive. In fact, there is no case where he has been proven –according to the standards of Western justice --to have ordered the assassination of anyone! 

He is not a Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump or Biden, each of whom is credited with multiple assassinations, killing innocent people — Obama being the worst.

If you don’t believe this there is a more obvious reason. Bombing Wagner’s aircraft plays to the Western storyline.  It would be throwing gasoline to put out a stove fire.

Putin is now being blamed by almost everyone.  Some blame him directly. Other insist he is ill and indecisive and in decline (like the leader of the “Free World”, one Joe Biden?) and his subordinates did it to allow him plausible deniability.

But Putin is the most alert, careful and well-informed leader in modern history – still.

The GRU? 

The GRU is an intelligence service under Russian military command—Shoigu and Gerasimov, with whom Prigozhin was at odds.

The caveats that apply to Putin, apply to them too.

In any case, they had won; Prigozhin had lost and been put in his place.

If they had wanted him dead, they would have had it done in Bakhmut.

The FSB and SVR?

The FSB is counterintelligence.  The SVR does foreign intelligence. They both report directly to Putin.  Suffice it to say, they would not do anything so stupid.

 Wagner?

That leaves Wagner.  Prigozhin’s mutiny was not supported by the majority of Wagner fighters, especially at the command level.  One must keep in mind that the Wagner Group, as whole, differ from the kind of mercenaries you find in BlackRock insofar as they are patriotic and less motivated by money.  They believe in a cause.  And they are all soldiers.

Prigozhin was a businessman – a billionaire who profited hugely from their sacrifices. 

With him gone, you will see a new Wagner – a stronger, more effective one.

From Wagner’s point of view, the ambiguity surrounding Prigozhin’s death and media attacks on Putin in particular merely highlight the gap between Russia and the West and the need for more assertive action, in all areas of Russian geopolitics – not just Ukraine but Syria, Africa, and BRICS. 

What to think?

Ultimately, I doubt we will ever know exactly what happened.   One thing is certain; however, it did not happen as you are being told to think.  

Ultimately, it doesn’t matter whether it was an accident or an internal shakeup in Wagner – what really matters is Russia’s progress in reshaping the world.

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This is a Northern Pygmy Owl, a fairly rare owl in British Columbia where I grew up. Unlike most owls they are diurnal — and mostly eat insects. My room was in the attic of the rebuilt English cottage (built circa 1900) in which my parents lived on the slopes of the mountain, at the time surrounded by trees.

My owl banged into the window. And needed care. I called him (her?) Bonk. So, I took him to the Vancouver Zoo, where they told me what he was and looked afterwards. I think - I hope— he was later released into the wild. Later, the zoo offered me a summer job. Yes, they are really this small. No, they don’t make good pets.

Owls don’t drink coffee either. But I do. If you liked this article, please buy me a coffee.

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