The ZPP Nuclear Catastrophe That Wasn't
Updated thanks to Piquet at Black Mountain Analysis
Simplicius the Thinker is an excellent source of information and I recommend you subscribe to his newsletter and read every post – carefully – because there is a lot in each one—and the arguments are highly nuanced.
They are also often quite long—but there’s a lot of meat there. Chew well. And drink lots of coffee.
His recent post, as usual, moves around quite a bit, from the possibility of Zelensky staging a false flag attack on the ZPP to Prigozhin and the corruption of his 400 or 500 companies.
Let’s just confine ourselves to ZPP. Prigozhin can come later.
False Flag Plan A
Plan A is obviously is a strike at the reactor core.
Simplicius has lots of details and facts —but perhaps most important is this: ZPP is not Chernobyl! Its containment vessel for reactor core is well-protected and probably impervious to missile strikes so you are not likely to have a Chernobyl type explosion.
….breaching this building and successfully hitting the small “sealed cylinder” of the reactor would be very difficult without massive amounts of successive strikes hitting the same spot. However, it’s perhaps possible to somehow damage the cooling equipment, pool, pipes, etc., discussed above, and create a meltdown from lack of cooling, though I’m not certain about this as such pipes could be subterranean and built into the pool, which would mean hitting them could be implausible.
Does that mean that Europe doesn’t have to worry about another radioactive cloud heading their way like the one that occurred when the Russia blew up the UK’s gift of DU munitions?
Not quite:
False Flag Plan B
You could however hit the nuclear waste storage casks which sit out in the open, though it’s questionable how radioactive they are given that they are spent waste (well, certainly radioactive but not as much as the live fuel).
Simplicius is incorrect about this. Read Piquet’s excellent article at Black Mountain and his comment on my article below after it was first published.
Spent fuel rods are highly radioactive, which is why such effort goes into rendering containment vessels as impervious as possible to most disasters, natural and otherwise.
Each cask uses very thick concrete— which is why there are so many of them. They don’t actually contain that many spent rods.
Casks of this kind are designed to withstand aircraft crashes.
So, the trouble with Plan B is the uncertainty as to the amount of radiation leaked if a missile strike managed to breach a cask (or two).
A hit would not necessarily produce the amount of airborne contamination to create a major disaster — although it would generate a lot of photographic confirmation of Ukrainian intention. The Western Media wouldn’t publish it. But media in the rest of the world would.
False Flag Plan C
Plan C is a scenario that comes from Renat Karchaa, advisor to the head of Rosenergoatom
Today we received information that I am authorized to voice. On July 5, at night, at night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to attack the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant using long-range precision weapons, as well as kamikaze unmanned aerial vehicles. At the same time, they plan to drop ammunition from an aircraft, which is equipped with radioactive waste, taken out on July 3 from the South Ukrainian nuclear power plant to one of the military airfields of Ukraine. The backup plan for the release of radioactive substances provides for the use of a high-precision projectile "Tochka-U" with a warhead filled with radioactive waste. That's the way things are. Karchaa is known in the Russian media as an “atomic expert”
To translate this for you, Russian intelligence (as usual) has access to Ukrainian attack plans and the use of “dirty bombs” for a false flag has been bandied about for a long time. In this case, it is “dirty warheads”.
This is now unlikely because:
a.) Russia has alerted the media to the possibility of the false flat so that blame can be assigned appropriately — as in “see we told ya so”. This strategy has worked rather well in the past, in Syria, for example, to prevent false flags. There have been numerous threatened attacks in Syria since Douma in 2018 —but no major events.
b.) what happens when a missile malfunctions and lo-and-behold you have the war head and its contents as evidence? Need I say: “Twitter”?
c.) a lot depends on the wind. Getting that wrong means the wind blowing radioactivity to Europe, which is hardly going to bolster support there for Zelly.
Simplicius explores various possibilities— but in the end:
..,the fact that they weren’t able to effect any sort of retreat or offensive success means to me the chance of a ZNPP false flag would theoretically remain low. However, given that the big upcoming NATO summit is one of Ukraine’s last chances to make a splash before Europe potentially goes cold on Ukrainian support, that is the only thing keeping the chances of a desperate false flag afloat in my view.
Now, IF the UkroNazis had achieved what Simplicius has previously said was their aim— a breakthrough— why would they need a false flag at all? Especially since ZPP would then be theirs!
Secondly, yet another claim that Russia was into self-harm after having destroyed its own pipeline, its own dam, and God knows what else is unlikely to be any more successful now than before, other than to convince the Western World that Putin was going to start a nuclear war tomorrow.
“Making a splash” with a nuclear false flag means at least the possibility of making a dark, dirty cloud—which could easily float West—not a way to encourage European support—at a time when the public, as we have seen in France and elsewhere is getting restive. Doesn’t matter if a missile strike caused much contamination or not—it would be just more proof that the Ukrainians are bat-shit crazy.
More likely, an actual attack such as Karchaa talks about should scare the shit out of NATO and the US— and you can be sure that they are on the phone to Kiev. Today, after all is July 5 when it’s supposed to happen.
As for Karchaa, he is not a PR guy. He trained as a primatologist – a chimp doctor—which makes him perfect for feeding the animals in the Western media zoo. He knows how these guys think and that they are impossible to housetrain.
Today’s Note
This was “Chibi” which means “little’” in Japanese. The first picture is of him on the street. The second is of him helping me work. Chibi was my best friend for 18 years. I miss him a lot. You can read about him in my article on Medium.com: In Memoriam: Chibi. I have been fortunate in my life. I have been down— and really out— a lot of times since I left home at 17. Always, somebody—often a stranger— stepped in to give me a hand. I am always thankful. Sometimes what seems to be just a small thing can be very big. Sometimes a small being in your life can be big, too.
Excellent analysis Julian. One suggestion: that photo of Zelensky at the end of your post would be much more credible if he were dressed in his green fatigues, rather than a white shirt and tie. Photoshop is your friend.
Just updated my article using Piquet's comment, with links to HIS superb article! Make sure you read his article.