War: a step at a time

On to the Polish border

This is the VO I did for Southfront on the subject of yesterday’s post.

Reading the Alt Media pundits, I noticed that Alexander Mercouris now in Georgia in his apparently never-ending tour of Europe and such places is finally catching up on what I have been saying all along, namely that the “peace” has to be won on the battlefield, not negotiated in Turkey and that Trump has no role to play but half-time entertainment. The Duran and such luminaries as Scott Ritter and a lot of Larry Johnson’s poddy friends were initially high on hopium — that Trump would change something.

But Kiev’s attacks on Russian airbases and terror attacks on civilian infrastructure have made my point for me.

And now the Russians are responding appropriately— which is the subject of yet another SouthFront video for which I did a VO today.

Zelensky and his crew seem to be doing everything they can to ensure that Russia expands its border to Poland. Prolonging the war sets the stage wonderfully. But the losers will not be the Ukrainian people but rather Europe and the US.

The longer the war goes on…

• the stronger Russian industrialization and economic growth

• the stronger public support in Russia for incorporation of more Ukrainian regions, arguably right up to the border, despite all the problems

• the weaker Europe and the US

• the more capable Russia is of waging and winning a conventional war against Europe, dealing with threats in the Baltics in the immediate future

• the more public support there is for Putin’s reform of Russian power structures in the military and bureaucracy

We must keep in mind that Putin is, and never was a dictator.

He has always had to share power with other forces in the Kremlin. The Second Chechen War, however, gave him clout — and also experience and knowhow he would not otherwise have hand. This war adds to that. But he has to mind both Russian elites and the Russian public which tend to be skeptical of government actions.

There is a lot of talk on Russian networks about war with NATO— and the prevailing worry is that Russia is outnumbered, not just in the number of countries arrayed against it, but in military resources. All those tomahawks…woooo….!

This is what DeepSeek, the fountain of conventional wisdom says:

In essence: NATO holds a decisive conventional military advantage and a vast superiority in resources and technology

This, as you know, is what Europeans, and people like Starmer, would like to believe. And what used to be the case until the 21st Century. But, today, the opposite is true. You can read Andrei Martynov on that.

As I repeat ad nauseam, NATO is simply not in the position to fight a conventional conflict in Eastern Europe against Russia. Especially in the air where combined NATO air forces are paper tigers and it is worth mentioning that already by late 1970s Russia's central industrial district could withstand massive NATO air (space) operation. Since then ... well, since then the US lost the arms race and a bunch of sore losers from US Military, who migrated to abuse sinecures in all kinds of "think-tanks"

NATO lacks both resources AND technology. European militaries have been hollowed out. They have ammunition for maybe a week of conflict. And a lot of their equipment is obsolete. Nor are Europeans willing to die for the likes of Starmer, Macron, and Merz.

Still, the Russian public is conservative.

On the other hand, they recognize the existential threat posed by the West as never before.

Ukraine’s terrorist attacks and European hatred of Russia have unified the Russian people and they will be solidly behind Putin if he does a bit of Oreshniking.

Coffee Please!

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