Julian, regarding the chatter from politics, mainstream media, and also that of the "alternative" media, I would like to metaphorically compare it to throwing a stone in a direction we are absolutely supposed to look at. Regardless of whether this happens consciously or unconsciously, in a calculating manner, or simply because someone holds that particular opinion. We are always meant to look in one specific direction. For this reason, said chatter must remain only one aspect we consider in our assessment.
Unfortunately, I clearly see the danger of nuclear weapons being used. Not only in West Asia, but also in Europe. The danger, not the certainty. I would very much like to quote you the lengthy comment by a highly educated and well-informed man from Russia, who left Larry's blog because he could no longer endure the stupid, insulting, and condescending garbage comments directed against his country, and no longer wishes to waste his time on discussions. His comment went far beyond the public mood or discussions within Russia itself. Unfortunately, I can no longer find this comment. However, it aligns with my own "knowledge" and standpoint. ==> Paraphrased: Should NATO provocations seriously threaten Russia, such as a complete blockade of the Baltic Sea/Kaliningrad and the northern route to the Atlantic, or a direct land-based provocation against Kaliningrad, then the corresponding political decisions have long been made and planning within the Russian General Staff completed, so that in such a case no conventional war would be fought, but instead algorithms would automatically be activated leading to the immediate annihilation of EU-Europe. Both through tactical and strategic nuclear missiles....
I disagreed with my Russian friend on only one point. Not because the Kremlin had communicated something to me which it did not do, but because I refuse to accept that 450 billion people will be annihilated in the short to long term. Both through the direct effects of a nuclear attack, and also through secondary consequences: chemical plants, billions of decaying livestock and millions of decaying human bodies, many millions of tons of rotting food due to non-functioning cold storage facilities, epidemics/pandemics, collapsing nuclear power plants, destroyed final repositories for radioactive waste, hunger, cold, chaos and violence over the last remaining resources, no more healthcare, enormous wildfires, and much more.
Firstly, I cannot imagine that anyone in Russia would want to burden the shoulders of subsequent Russian generations over the next 1000 years with responsibility for all this. Regardless of whether it was a just war.
Secondly, Russia's existing conventional technologies within its Air Force, Missile Forces, and Aerospace Forces are entirely sufficient to immediately render NATO-Europe incapable of warfare. This would probably kill hundreds of thousands of people. But the result would be preventing war impacts from causing material and personnel losses within Russia itself. A goal clearly expressed by Putin years ago as Russia's objective. However, there would undoubtedly be Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons, for example, if NATO concentrated larger military formations in Poland/Lithuania with assault directions toward Kaliningrad or Minsk. Or upon deployment of nuclear-capable delivery systems along the Finnish-Russian border.
Regarding West Asia and Iran: conventionally, the USA and Israel no longer have any options. Regardless of all the public chatter, plans for using nuclear weapons have existed within military headquarters for decades. Just as they do within the general staff of every nuclear power worldwide. Plans that are constantly adapted to changing developments. If the political level gives the order, then, regardless of which country, the aforementioned "algorithms" will automatically be activated. Who gives such an order in Israel (submarines) and in the USA? What can we expect or hope for from these individuals? Will there be a false flag operation involving "Iranian passports" or "Made in Iran"? Perhaps with a dirty bomb in Los Angeles? For Israel, its very existence as a state is now at stake. The USA, through their stupidity in West Asia/Iran, have given the final push to de-dollarization.
Etc. Sorry that I cannot express my thoughts in just three sentences.
Minor correction in the third paragraph of my comment:
"Not because the Kremlin has informed me of something, which it has not done, but because I refuse to accept that 450 million people will be wiped out in the short to medium term."
Hopefully someone was paying attention when RF demonstrated Oreshnik a while back.... Because, yes, one strike on each of the data centers of London, Paris, Dublin, etc, will hopefully not be necessary...but baked-in if certain variables interact.
I make no claims of knowing what those variables are
Oh Julian you hit a chord with Shoemaker. I'm one of the privileged few who witnessed a meteorite impact about 600 meters away.
I was on a solitary deer hunt in Southern Arizona. Around 10PM I was extinguishing my campfire and getting ready to hit the sack. All of a sudden I heard a sound that I thought was a jet flying on afterburner. Lots of jets fly out there. I looked up and almost filled my pants at the sight of a burning rock that seemed to come right at me! I stood frozen thinking this is the end. It passed about 100 yards from me and barely cleared the near ridge. It seemed to be going as fast as a NASCAR and I verified it at a race. It was on an almost horizontal trajectory and hit the top of the opposite ridge of the canyon. When it struck it sent a jet 150 yards high. The jet had every color of the spectrum and bathed the entire area in an orange glow.
The event lasted less than a second and it's seared into my mind. I found the crater and tried to get a sample. Years later I returned to find mining activity caused the ridge to collapse in the crater.
It looked like a Stony Iron Meteor the size of a VW Bug. Imagine how much it weighs. Imagine its value!
In a recent interview with J Hinkle (love or loathe), Lt.Col. (Ret) Karen Kwiatkowski described how Israeli society was not robust enough to withstand what looks to be it’s likely inevitable future (whereas Iranian’s would survive similar) and in its collapse there would be a madness strong enough to push that red button, consequences be damned.
Your - "Contrary to popular belief, Israel does not own the US – rather the US owns Israel, which without US support, will collapse. It will not use nukes against Iran because if it were to that would be accelerate the end of its “special relationship” with the US and the West." - requires just a bit of editing - I apologize.
The nation of Israel does not own the US - and neither does the US own Israel - American billionaire oligarch Jews own BOTH! - And Andrew Anglin has proven that in spades! American Jews do not live in Israel and do not want to - at best it's a haven from criminal prosecution and justice. That’s at least one good reason for having two passports.
As to using nukes - Trump said Israel wouldn't do it - isn't that reassuring?
I am certain that, ever since Hezbollah’s successes in Lebanon in the early 2000s, Iran has been quietly working on a strategy to neutralise the region’s biggest troublemaker. That explains the abduction of Asgari at the Istanbul airport in 2007, the assassination of Soleimani, and all the murders of Iranian scientists... There is a saying in Iran: “In patience lies strength.”
After this apartheid regime descended on Iran like vandals last year—believing their own propaganda that they had weakened Iran, even though they knew full well that Israel’s GSM network had been shut down and that Iranian missiles had pierced the “Golden Dome”—they fell into the trap of their own overconfidence.
That’s why I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that they might use a “dirty bomb” somewhere as a false flag. They have no scruples.
“If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected .”
You bring up an interesting comparison when you mention war and music. Certainly in the so-called West, classical music has for hundreds of years celebrated war. (So have paintings and written histories, as well as a lot of poetry.) Tchaikovsky's 1812 Overture may be the most sycophantic and garish work of its kind. Holst's Mars, from his Planets Suite, is probably the grimmest and most focused; and while it doesn't actively support humanity's favorite bloodlust sport, it is in some ways the most exciting. (Holst was a committed pacifist, so he is even now from someplace in another dimension probably planning my downfall.)
But it does go back more centuries than just the 19th--all the way to the 12th century Minnesanger, Troubadours, and Trouveres, who brought back to Europe this exciting new art form they learned from the Muslims(!) during the Crusades. And while their songs celebrated many things, war and its heroes were among these.
Sorry, I'm going on at length. Quickly, then, on the matter of Bibi, Israel and nukes: I still think a narcissist like Bibi could and would launch nukes at Iran if he could quickly board a plane bound for Europe, and as long as the country he landed in would save him from being tried as an International War Criminal. I hope I am wrong, and hope you are right. We'll see, but on the positive side, regardless, you really do have friendly, great looking cats.
I studied music, including composition and played Beethoven and Bach in my teens. My university had an excellent music library so I listened to a lot of ethnic music and I had good friends including one of the world's greatest authorities on Japanese music. Every culture has music .
Of course they'd go nuclear. They've lost the war the plot and their minds. We're dealing with psychopaths with no compunctions in taking human lives and destroying the very earth that sustains us. They've made that obvious time and again. We can hope cooler minds will prevail but hope is not a strategy or a plan of madmen.
The "war as music" analogy might be even more accurate than you think. The US, and Trump in particular, are perpetually locked in the short-term view with immediate results (quarterly reports, local elections, mid-term, state elections, presidential campaigning...), and keep treating any conflict as it is somehow identical to the one they won, decades ago... that is, the fully corporate way of standardizing, repackaging and reselling the same stuff over and over only because "that time it worked".
This conflict has gone the way of music in the TikTok generation: short, repetitive, ready-made, derivative, uninspired slop designed to reach the maximum audience and generate profit, but not long enough to bore it and let it go back to doomscrolling on their phones. On the Iranian side however there's a professional orchestra playing a long, complex symphony. Think Spotify's top 10 competing with Vivaldi's Four Seasons.
Julian, regarding the chatter from politics, mainstream media, and also that of the "alternative" media, I would like to metaphorically compare it to throwing a stone in a direction we are absolutely supposed to look at. Regardless of whether this happens consciously or unconsciously, in a calculating manner, or simply because someone holds that particular opinion. We are always meant to look in one specific direction. For this reason, said chatter must remain only one aspect we consider in our assessment.
Unfortunately, I clearly see the danger of nuclear weapons being used. Not only in West Asia, but also in Europe. The danger, not the certainty. I would very much like to quote you the lengthy comment by a highly educated and well-informed man from Russia, who left Larry's blog because he could no longer endure the stupid, insulting, and condescending garbage comments directed against his country, and no longer wishes to waste his time on discussions. His comment went far beyond the public mood or discussions within Russia itself. Unfortunately, I can no longer find this comment. However, it aligns with my own "knowledge" and standpoint. ==> Paraphrased: Should NATO provocations seriously threaten Russia, such as a complete blockade of the Baltic Sea/Kaliningrad and the northern route to the Atlantic, or a direct land-based provocation against Kaliningrad, then the corresponding political decisions have long been made and planning within the Russian General Staff completed, so that in such a case no conventional war would be fought, but instead algorithms would automatically be activated leading to the immediate annihilation of EU-Europe. Both through tactical and strategic nuclear missiles....
I disagreed with my Russian friend on only one point. Not because the Kremlin had communicated something to me which it did not do, but because I refuse to accept that 450 billion people will be annihilated in the short to long term. Both through the direct effects of a nuclear attack, and also through secondary consequences: chemical plants, billions of decaying livestock and millions of decaying human bodies, many millions of tons of rotting food due to non-functioning cold storage facilities, epidemics/pandemics, collapsing nuclear power plants, destroyed final repositories for radioactive waste, hunger, cold, chaos and violence over the last remaining resources, no more healthcare, enormous wildfires, and much more.
Firstly, I cannot imagine that anyone in Russia would want to burden the shoulders of subsequent Russian generations over the next 1000 years with responsibility for all this. Regardless of whether it was a just war.
Secondly, Russia's existing conventional technologies within its Air Force, Missile Forces, and Aerospace Forces are entirely sufficient to immediately render NATO-Europe incapable of warfare. This would probably kill hundreds of thousands of people. But the result would be preventing war impacts from causing material and personnel losses within Russia itself. A goal clearly expressed by Putin years ago as Russia's objective. However, there would undoubtedly be Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons, for example, if NATO concentrated larger military formations in Poland/Lithuania with assault directions toward Kaliningrad or Minsk. Or upon deployment of nuclear-capable delivery systems along the Finnish-Russian border.
Regarding West Asia and Iran: conventionally, the USA and Israel no longer have any options. Regardless of all the public chatter, plans for using nuclear weapons have existed within military headquarters for decades. Just as they do within the general staff of every nuclear power worldwide. Plans that are constantly adapted to changing developments. If the political level gives the order, then, regardless of which country, the aforementioned "algorithms" will automatically be activated. Who gives such an order in Israel (submarines) and in the USA? What can we expect or hope for from these individuals? Will there be a false flag operation involving "Iranian passports" or "Made in Iran"? Perhaps with a dirty bomb in Los Angeles? For Israel, its very existence as a state is now at stake. The USA, through their stupidity in West Asia/Iran, have given the final push to de-dollarization.
Etc. Sorry that I cannot express my thoughts in just three sentences.
No need to be sorry! A very interesting and I think timely comment. I appreciated the effort to articulate it. And I am sure others do.
Minor correction in the third paragraph of my comment:
"Not because the Kremlin has informed me of something, which it has not done, but because I refuse to accept that 450 million people will be wiped out in the short to medium term."
Not 450 billion people.
Hopefully someone was paying attention when RF demonstrated Oreshnik a while back.... Because, yes, one strike on each of the data centers of London, Paris, Dublin, etc, will hopefully not be necessary...but baked-in if certain variables interact.
I make no claims of knowing what those variables are
Oh Julian you hit a chord with Shoemaker. I'm one of the privileged few who witnessed a meteorite impact about 600 meters away.
I was on a solitary deer hunt in Southern Arizona. Around 10PM I was extinguishing my campfire and getting ready to hit the sack. All of a sudden I heard a sound that I thought was a jet flying on afterburner. Lots of jets fly out there. I looked up and almost filled my pants at the sight of a burning rock that seemed to come right at me! I stood frozen thinking this is the end. It passed about 100 yards from me and barely cleared the near ridge. It seemed to be going as fast as a NASCAR and I verified it at a race. It was on an almost horizontal trajectory and hit the top of the opposite ridge of the canyon. When it struck it sent a jet 150 yards high. The jet had every color of the spectrum and bathed the entire area in an orange glow.
The event lasted less than a second and it's seared into my mind. I found the crater and tried to get a sample. Years later I returned to find mining activity caused the ridge to collapse in the crater.
It looked like a Stony Iron Meteor the size of a VW Bug. Imagine how much it weighs. Imagine its value!
In a recent interview with J Hinkle (love or loathe), Lt.Col. (Ret) Karen Kwiatkowski described how Israeli society was not robust enough to withstand what looks to be it’s likely inevitable future (whereas Iranian’s would survive similar) and in its collapse there would be a madness strong enough to push that red button, consequences be damned.
Your - "Contrary to popular belief, Israel does not own the US – rather the US owns Israel, which without US support, will collapse. It will not use nukes against Iran because if it were to that would be accelerate the end of its “special relationship” with the US and the West." - requires just a bit of editing - I apologize.
The nation of Israel does not own the US - and neither does the US own Israel - American billionaire oligarch Jews own BOTH! - And Andrew Anglin has proven that in spades! American Jews do not live in Israel and do not want to - at best it's a haven from criminal prosecution and justice. That’s at least one good reason for having two passports.
As to using nukes - Trump said Israel wouldn't do it - isn't that reassuring?
I am certain that, ever since Hezbollah’s successes in Lebanon in the early 2000s, Iran has been quietly working on a strategy to neutralise the region’s biggest troublemaker. That explains the abduction of Asgari at the Istanbul airport in 2007, the assassination of Soleimani, and all the murders of Iranian scientists... There is a saying in Iran: “In patience lies strength.”
After this apartheid regime descended on Iran like vandals last year—believing their own propaganda that they had weakened Iran, even though they knew full well that Israel’s GSM network had been shut down and that Iranian missiles had pierced the “Golden Dome”—they fell into the trap of their own overconfidence.
That’s why I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that they might use a “dirty bomb” somewhere as a false flag. They have no scruples.
“If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected .”
You bring up an interesting comparison when you mention war and music. Certainly in the so-called West, classical music has for hundreds of years celebrated war. (So have paintings and written histories, as well as a lot of poetry.) Tchaikovsky's 1812 Overture may be the most sycophantic and garish work of its kind. Holst's Mars, from his Planets Suite, is probably the grimmest and most focused; and while it doesn't actively support humanity's favorite bloodlust sport, it is in some ways the most exciting. (Holst was a committed pacifist, so he is even now from someplace in another dimension probably planning my downfall.)
But it does go back more centuries than just the 19th--all the way to the 12th century Minnesanger, Troubadours, and Trouveres, who brought back to Europe this exciting new art form they learned from the Muslims(!) during the Crusades. And while their songs celebrated many things, war and its heroes were among these.
Sorry, I'm going on at length. Quickly, then, on the matter of Bibi, Israel and nukes: I still think a narcissist like Bibi could and would launch nukes at Iran if he could quickly board a plane bound for Europe, and as long as the country he landed in would save him from being tried as an International War Criminal. I hope I am wrong, and hope you are right. We'll see, but on the positive side, regardless, you really do have friendly, great looking cats.
Why exactly are you talking about Western music here?
I grew up in Sri Lanka and loved the 'street music' which issued from every little shop.
Just because you don't know anything about other countries.
Me. Beethoven 5th Symphony........war!
The West has absolutely NO idea about music from other countries.
I studied music, including composition and played Beethoven and Bach in my teens. My university had an excellent music library so I listened to a lot of ethnic music and I had good friends including one of the world's greatest authorities on Japanese music. Every culture has music .
That's good except that may be more 'high brow' stuff than 'street' music.?
Well said. Here's some beautiful Persian ambient as a corrective
https://youtu.be/NHBho8XXLSg?si=x8PGo2wSOnlWLzMQ
Ooh......thank you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VA4e0NqyYMw
that's definitely THE Music
Thank you for this. Loved it!
Of course they'd go nuclear. They've lost the war the plot and their minds. We're dealing with psychopaths with no compunctions in taking human lives and destroying the very earth that sustains us. They've made that obvious time and again. We can hope cooler minds will prevail but hope is not a strategy or a plan of madmen.
The "war as music" analogy might be even more accurate than you think. The US, and Trump in particular, are perpetually locked in the short-term view with immediate results (quarterly reports, local elections, mid-term, state elections, presidential campaigning...), and keep treating any conflict as it is somehow identical to the one they won, decades ago... that is, the fully corporate way of standardizing, repackaging and reselling the same stuff over and over only because "that time it worked".
This conflict has gone the way of music in the TikTok generation: short, repetitive, ready-made, derivative, uninspired slop designed to reach the maximum audience and generate profit, but not long enough to bore it and let it go back to doomscrolling on their phones. On the Iranian side however there's a professional orchestra playing a long, complex symphony. Think Spotify's top 10 competing with Vivaldi's Four Seasons.
Any confirmation on this just posted on Vox Day? - https://vtforeignpolicy.com/2026/03/russias-900m-missile-system-just-landed-in-iran-america-has-no-defense-against-it/ -
I think the post is accurate.
Thanks for your great work Julian!
We've restacked and shared this link on 'The Stacks'
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/the-stacks
I know that de gustibus non disputandum, BUT here's a waaay better (Japanese!) example of a grand finale in music: https://youtu.be/FRB2IKLozYU?si=Ss6kf2E_y7MpkzPn
A lot of Japanese music is written with interesting musical contrasts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uupwsMdJCtY