War this week?

Will Americans die?

War, war, war…

What did we do before?

Wasn’t life such a bore?

February 16, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps began carrying out naval drills in the Hormuz Strait which, however, was closed for just a few hours. .

On the same day, the US began sending more warplanes to the Middle East.

At least 18 F-35As left Laken-heath Air Base in the UK for Muwaf-faq Salti in Jordan and a dozen F-22s left Langley Air Force Base with a stopover in the UK.

This was in addition to 48 F-16 Fighting Falcons from Italy, Germany and the US and two E-3 Sentry AWACS from the UK.

Simultaneously, the USS Gerald R. Ford arrived near the Strait of Gibraltar, to join the USS Abraham Lincoln which internet chatter says is experiencing “technical issues”.

However, an Iranian delegation led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a second round of indirect talks with U.S. representatives, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Geneva on February 17.

Araghchi said

Good progress was made compared to the previous session, and this round was conducted in a more constructive atmosphere.

From now on, we will proceed based on the guiding principles and move towards drafting the text of a possible agreement.

However, he also said that it would take time to reach agreement and he reiterated Iran’s rights to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Also that Iran’s right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes was “inherent and non-negotiable”.

As for Trump?

The boss is getting fed up. Some people around him warn him against going to war with Iran, but I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks,” one Trump adviser said.

SouthFront, for whom I just did a video, thinks that the US will strike within a week. Larry Johnson thinks the same thing.

William Schryver also thinks so. But his take is qualified.

The US has never faced modern mobile air defenses.

But here is the bigger problem:

Iran will be able to almost immediately detect US aircraft and Tomahawk launches -- and, depending on where in Iran is being targeted, from launch to strike will take anywhere from 30 minutes to 3+ hours.

Iranian SRBMs can hit US bases in the region within 5-7 minutes.

Therefore, Iran can very conceivably achieve multiple significant strikes against US targets long before US munitions hit ANY targets in Iran.

Maybe US SEAD/DEAD is all that is claimed. But it is entirely conceivable that the strike package won’t have anywhere to land when they get back to their bases.

JASSM

Let us keep in mind that the US appears to be counting on subsonic Tomahawks and JASSM cruise missiles that are vulnerable to interception. The Israelis were unable to intercept Iranian hypersonic missiles in the last days of the 12 Day War — and those missiles have improved.

If the Chinese and Russian anti-stealth radars work as advertised the F35s and F22s won’t be of much use.

A lot of this is hard to say since weapons systems are always overhyped.

The point is no one knows.

So we still face various scenarios.

Scenario 1

A rapid all-out strike, starting with “decapitation” attacks and attacks on air defense systems. Problem? Iran expects something like this and is preparing with Chinese and Russian help. A lot of its systems are mobile and move around.

Trump, however, may be convinced that the US military and Israel together can destroy Iran before it can retaliate in any meaningful way

Despite the Iranians having demonstrated that they could overwhelm Israeli defenses with precision strikes on infrastructure in the 12 Day War, some Israelis may want another go— this time with full military support from the US hoping they can destroy Iranian defenses, decapitate the Iranian leadership, and stir up ethnic strife.

The Israelis point to hundreds of Iranian casualties in the 12 day War and very few Israeli civilian casualties. However, most Iranian casualties were in the first days, many of them from internal terrorist attacks rather than direct confrontation of the kind now looming.

Also, as a matter of principle, the Iranians targeted only military infrastructure.

From the Israeli point of view, principles make you weak.

This is confusing for everyone but specially for the Donald.

What matters for Trump is what he wants to believe at any given moment, not what is actually the case, facts, contradictions, whatever—ergo— the Iranian people are just waiting to be “liberated” by US missiles and bombs from the thrall of the Mullahs.

He also, of course, wants to believe the US is No.1 – so its military must be unstoppable. After all, America won two world wars didn’t it? Why not a third?

Scenario 2

Seven out of 10 American voters don’t want war with Iran. Iran has warned that this time, it will go all out and Americans will die.

The Russians and Chinese are giving Tehran a lot of technological support. “Stealth” is not necessarily an advantage this time – in fact, it could end up being a disadvantage if you end up in the wrong place at the wrong time.

American bases are vulnerable. Carriers too.

Therefore, total war with Iran could mean American casualties at a level not seen since Vietnam – not to mention the destruction of Israel.

Trump doesn’t care about such quibbles — just about losing ordinary Americans in the MidTerms and maybe the Zionists and their money at the same time. So in Scenario 2 “negotiating” buys time, hoping that people will get tired of the story and stop paying attention, so he can arrange a face-saving “deal” and withdraw naval forces to threaten Greenland or somewhere they won’t fight back.

He then can market himself as the “Great Negotiator” in the Elections. “See, I avoided / stopped a war”.

Scenario 3

Israel attacks – whatever the US thinks. This is some people’s idea anyway.

Such an attract forces the US into a proxy war. Who is proxy for whom?? A good question.

Iran launches missiles against which Israel has no defense The US steps in at the last moment to “save Israel”, as it did in the 12 Day War. But this time, the Iranians may not give B2s a free pass as William Schryver reloquently argues they did ,

Thank you Grok!

Somehow we’ve looped back to Scenario 1. Sorry….

The thing is that if Israel has no defense against Iran’s missiles – neither does the US, whereas Iran does have such defenses which means that the only scenario that makes sense – rationally- is #2.

But, as I have written, when has US policy, particularly that of Trump, been rational?

This is the Age of Unreason.

But does Israel want to attack — really?

My guess is that Trump, that least adult adult child is playing a dangerous game of chicken. No, the Nash Equilibrium does not apply.

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