2. The North-Western Black Sea Coast + Odessa from Romania (and Moldova ?) and if they get the chance, the Black Sea itself, Threatening Sevastopol.
My sensing tells me Putin wil NOT allow this. He probably has a full alphabet of options ready to prevent or destroy that option, including his Dnieper flotilla....
The collapse of the Donbass South front is not complete yet. Zaporizhia city is a bridge too far still.
In the meantime Putin is stretching the whole Ukraine Front until it snaps.
As i now estimate, the F16's come too late to prevent or even delay that.
Let's hope she credited a poster over at NC who wrote a lengthy blurb on the importance of control of watersheds for national security and, specifically, why Russia needs control over the Dnieper watershed.
I am not sure whether she did or not. Control over the watersheds was a big deal in World War II. That that is what led to the various Russian flotillas.
For more reality, listen to Mark, who lives in Russia and has family in Crimea. Pretty ugle stuff, 5 to 1 ratio of Ukrainian v Russian deaths and injuries. What a fucking success, no? Tens of thousands dead from the Mother land, Russia, and injured. And a few hundred thousand dead in Ukraine.
What fucking success.
This will go on for years, and that, my friend is no success at all.
The USA is Empire of Chaos and Death, along with the Inbred UnUnited Queen-Queer-dumb and the EuroTrashLandians and Klanadians and those freaks in NZ and AU.
But Putin has made big mistakes in this so-called SMO. It's a war, and a war of terrorist techniques, including bombing dams and hitting a nuclear power plant.
Not exactly a success. And the 14 Eyes and the like will continue to feed UkroBlackRock more and more weapons.
I differ with Ritter and co. on strategic matters. But I agree with him that the Russians are winning-- in almost all areas. I agree with you however that death and destruction should not be called "success". This success lies in bringing it to an end! And that is what the Russians are doing-- while establishing a new world order. I love that term chlamydia capitalism by the way. I will definitely steal it-- and pretend that I thought of it!
I think you've hit the spot with this essay. But if WE know all this, so do the DeepStaters who are running the show. So what's their game? Perhaps this:
"Russia needs to control both the Dnieper and other rivers and the Black Sea".
Exactly! And the more you think about it, the more reasonable it seems. Russia is enormous: about double the area of the USA, Canada, or China; yet its access to the oceans is very limited. Is the Black Sea in Europe or Asia? Geographers and lawyers may have their own answers, but I think it is in Eurasia. Western Europeans are extremely conceited about their "continent", which isn't really a continent at all. It's just a small protrusion - a wart or carbuncle, if you like - on the huge bulk of Eurasia. Like India, Arabia, Indochina, or Kamchatka.
The Black Sea should be shared between the nations that border it, but Russia is the greatest of those and has the most need for access to the sea. The very assertion of Ukrainian independence was always ludicrous: it has been part of Russia for centuries, until the Soviets muddied the waters (especially Lenin, Stalin, and Khrushchev).
"After the deal fell apart, Russia muddled about, evidently lacking a plan B..."
Only to those who weren't paying attention and knew nothing about Russia. I am sure that by 2022 - and even by 2014 - the Russian General Staff had a whole sheaf of plans: A through Z and possibly AA through ZZ. Planning, including contingency planning, is of the essence of military strategy. And if Mr Putin hoped to conclude matters quickly and easily with an agreed peace settlement, I am sure the tough, experienced, cynical generals expected NATO to double down - and down, and down - and were ready for every possibility.
"Putin has said on numerous occasions that he regards Kiev as a Russian city..."
Kiev is as much (or even more) a Russian city than, for instance, King Alfred's capital Winchester is an English city - although England didn't even exist yet when Alfred conceived his vision of "Englaland". Or, if you prefer, more than Philadelphia or Boston is a US city.
Every history of Russia - even the "Teach Yourself" one, which is actually pretty good - begins with Kievan Rus.
Great one again.
I agree with all you wrote here.
Next we will see the battle on the skies surrounding West Ukraine.
Two fronts:
1. The Poland border "No-fly Zone" as has been pointed to by Military Summary channel (Recommended):
->https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GSHR1Z6XEAAaN7D?format=jpg
2. The North-Western Black Sea Coast + Odessa from Romania (and Moldova ?) and if they get the chance, the Black Sea itself, Threatening Sevastopol.
My sensing tells me Putin wil NOT allow this. He probably has a full alphabet of options ready to prevent or destroy that option, including his Dnieper flotilla....
The collapse of the Donbass South front is not complete yet. Zaporizhia city is a bridge too far still.
In the meantime Putin is stretching the whole Ukraine Front until it snaps.
As i now estimate, the F16's come too late to prevent or even delay that.
Keep up the good work !
Sander
Let's hope she credited a poster over at NC who wrote a lengthy blurb on the importance of control of watersheds for national security and, specifically, why Russia needs control over the Dnieper watershed.
I am not sure whether she did or not. Control over the watersheds was a big deal in World War II. That that is what led to the various Russian flotillas.
Once again a marvellous and incisive overview. Thank you Julian for encouraging our focus.
Not really incisive. Just common sense I think.
That's what it amounts to when we dig deep?
Man, you sound like a Scott Jar Head Ritter twin.
For more reality, listen to Mark, who lives in Russia and has family in Crimea. Pretty ugle stuff, 5 to 1 ratio of Ukrainian v Russian deaths and injuries. What a fucking success, no? Tens of thousands dead from the Mother land, Russia, and injured. And a few hundred thousand dead in Ukraine.
What fucking success.
This will go on for years, and that, my friend is no success at all.
The USA is Empire of Chaos and Death, along with the Inbred UnUnited Queen-Queer-dumb and the EuroTrashLandians and Klanadians and those freaks in NZ and AU.
But Putin has made big mistakes in this so-called SMO. It's a war, and a war of terrorist techniques, including bombing dams and hitting a nuclear power plant.
Not exactly a success. And the 14 Eyes and the like will continue to feed UkroBlackRock more and more weapons.
What fucking success.
Well, it is the Century of the Fucking Jew.
https://paulokirk.substack.com/p/mutts-of-mayhem-chlamydia-capitalism
https://paulokirk.substack.com/p/shiver-my-timbers-democrats-and-republicans
I differ with Ritter and co. on strategic matters. But I agree with him that the Russians are winning-- in almost all areas. I agree with you however that death and destruction should not be called "success". This success lies in bringing it to an end! And that is what the Russians are doing-- while establishing a new world order. I love that term chlamydia capitalism by the way. I will definitely steal it-- and pretend that I thought of it!
I think you've hit the spot with this essay. But if WE know all this, so do the DeepStaters who are running the show. So what's their game? Perhaps this:
https://peterwebster.substack.com/p/the-1-may-have-a-plan
I read your article! It's very good! I hope others will read it too.
"Russia needs to control both the Dnieper and other rivers and the Black Sea".
Exactly! And the more you think about it, the more reasonable it seems. Russia is enormous: about double the area of the USA, Canada, or China; yet its access to the oceans is very limited. Is the Black Sea in Europe or Asia? Geographers and lawyers may have their own answers, but I think it is in Eurasia. Western Europeans are extremely conceited about their "continent", which isn't really a continent at all. It's just a small protrusion - a wart or carbuncle, if you like - on the huge bulk of Eurasia. Like India, Arabia, Indochina, or Kamchatka.
The Black Sea should be shared between the nations that border it, but Russia is the greatest of those and has the most need for access to the sea. The very assertion of Ukrainian independence was always ludicrous: it has been part of Russia for centuries, until the Soviets muddied the waters (especially Lenin, Stalin, and Khrushchev).
"After the deal fell apart, Russia muddled about, evidently lacking a plan B..."
Only to those who weren't paying attention and knew nothing about Russia. I am sure that by 2022 - and even by 2014 - the Russian General Staff had a whole sheaf of plans: A through Z and possibly AA through ZZ. Planning, including contingency planning, is of the essence of military strategy. And if Mr Putin hoped to conclude matters quickly and easily with an agreed peace settlement, I am sure the tough, experienced, cynical generals expected NATO to double down - and down, and down - and were ready for every possibility.
Yves (Susan Webber) is good at economics. Not so good on geopolitics.
"Putin has said on numerous occasions that he regards Kiev as a Russian city..."
Kiev is as much (or even more) a Russian city than, for instance, King Alfred's capital Winchester is an English city - although England didn't even exist yet when Alfred conceived his vision of "Englaland". Or, if you prefer, more than Philadelphia or Boston is a US city.
Every history of Russia - even the "Teach Yourself" one, which is actually pretty good - begins with Kievan Rus.
"After the deal fell apart..."
Correction: "After Boris Johnson, at the behest of his owners, ripped the deal apart - probably by threatening Zelensky's life, his wife, etc...."
Nah, he offered him property in London. And a rolls royce.