Russia is winning because of better weapons and better strategy of course – but even more so-- because of better social and economic progress. Russia has values. The US does not.
This comes from the part of me i call Cassandra, it comes as intuitive evaluation, including all facts i have gathered on a subject via its associations. A feeling or maybe "Sensing". I translate it into a percentage of probability.
I hope you will appreciate it.
Sander.
Occupy: (From a Tweet)
Odessa is the last chance for the Empire to get a foothold on the Black Sea, now it seems clear Sevastopol on Crimea is out of reach.
This is a primary Strategic target.
Control the Black Sea, threaten Russia's weak South-West Underbelly, create a Navy in the Black Sea, block Russian access to the Oceans and draw Türkiye back into NATO Keeping a way to export Grain and vegetable oil open.
To stop that Strategic Target, Russia has to invade the Black Sea Coast south of Odessa, blocking total access to the Black Sea, cutting the Supply from Rumania and connecting with Transnistria and its supplies of Ammunition and Artillery + Tank parts.
The purposefully targeted and destroyed 2 of the total 3 Amphibious Assault vessels of the Russian Navy with enormous costs and use of special resources was intended to prevent Russia to do this.
As was the attempt to create a bridgehead East of the Dnieper at Krynky and other places.
The recent requests from Moldova and Transnistria for Russian help is a sign that the RuAF is considering a crossing of the Dnieper river towards Nicolaiv or via Zaporizhia, as one of 3 other possible offensives (Dnipro/Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkov and the North East of Kiev).
An offensive that way to Odessa in the South has to cross various rivers and will take time, while their Right/North flank is exposed to Polish or NATO troops intervening and Odessa-supply from Rumania.
About this intention of NATO we hear more and more.
The invasion south of Odessa will solve that. Including Airdrops of Special forces.
After Mariupol, I thought that the Russians' next target should be Odessa since leaving the Ukrainians in control of it increased the risk for the Russian Navy. However the Russians had other plans. It is also true that taking any major city has special risks. It takes time, resources, and usually ends up destroying the city.
Under the circumstances, the Russians choices were limited but I think they made the best choice.
Right now however the situation is quite different. The Russians have the resources to besiege Odessa AND continue their military operations to liberate the Donbass and Kharkov as well.
UK or supplying Ukrainians with upgraded stealth drones, which can be a problem. But so far they have managed to sink one small rocket ship and an aging landing ship used to transport cargo.
No they didn't sink the Moskva! Although everyone seems to think they did – including Alex Mercouris. But the damage shown in the videos is clearly not a missile strike – it is from an internal explosion. I don't think the Polish or the Romanians would attempt to intervene. That would be an act of war and the Russians would immediately strike at their bases in Poland and Romania.
However recently a Russian fighter approached a French AWACS aircraft over the Black Sea. A message?
If the Russians mount a military operation against Odessa, it makes sense to declare a no-fly zone for "unfriendly" countries in the Black Sea who have a demonstrated military involvement in in the war. That will restrict NATO ISR. The US is done this and other theaters – so there is precedent for it.
Another insightful summary giving perspective to reality - which will be appreciated by those already aware of reality and ignored by those steeped in delusions.
"The head of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence says Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny died from a blood clot," - death by blood clot has almost become a cliche since the introduction of MRNA shots developed and released under the auspices of the USA MICIMATT. The Americans dunnit!
I just checked on his vaccinations. Seems he WAS given MRNA shots --in Germany-- and there is some medical research that suggests that such vaccinations are unsuitable for people with his medical conditions.
Thanks for checking this Julian. However, there is abundant medical evidence showing that both MRNA and viral vector shots are unsuitable for everybody. Please look at excess mortality rates around the world where these two technologies were taken up in the past 2-3 years and you can begin to see a broad picture of what is going on.
The Russians do not use vaccines MRNA . Their vaccines are just as effective (or ineffective) but have much fewer side effects, including blood clots. If the clot was induced somehow that would only have been of benefit to the Ukrainians or the Americans.
If we ever get smart enough to stop sending money overseas. We could probably build something exciting and new again. But that would take generators of un-learning to to so.
I'm Canadian. And I think of all the wonderful things Canadian government could do with the money that is spending on NATO, overpriced defense systems it doesn't need, and support for Ukraine and Israel. Healthcare. Affordable housing. Tuition free education. Support for business startups. It's an endless list. But actually affordable.
The Reading by "Mr. Anyway" as i call him respectfully (after deviating from his storyline, he perfectly returns to where he was, something i cannot do...) of the Historical Tweet of David Sachs: (It starts at the right point)
I had not known that it was a variant spelling. But the COED agrees with you! 8-) A peculiar situation, as the basic meanings of the two words are quite different.
I've been impressed by Putin too, and I read a lot about him from Karl Sanchez from karlof1’s Geopolitical Gymnasium on Substack. I hope you check him out.
I am going to share this article with acquaintances who need to see that government can work for its citizens. The investment in public goods will provide lasting benefits to Russian citizens.
Here in the U.S, our president is taking a heroic stance against the import of Chinese electric passenger cars in the name of national security. These cars allegedly have the ability to track your movements and media consumption. Can't have that! But President Biden, we are already there. Any car produced domestically or imported from Europe or Japan has the same intrusive features enabled for the past decade. If this is a bad feature for a Chinese produced vehicle, then it's a bad feature period and should be curtailed.
I do have a bit of melancholy from reading this piece. Spending on armaments is a waste of precious resources, no matter whose. Commercial plane production is a vector to a destroyed atmosphere. And surviving the vicious consequences of climate change will not be a walk in the park. Those Siberian methane burps will be a real downer.
Thanks for this well researched, informative post. Most Americans think Russia is close to a third world country. Not so. Hopefully information such as yours can change the dynamic for more positive future relations.
I like that ... judge a country by its toilets! One of my surprises in moving to the "poor" country of Ecuador (we now live in Cuenca) has been I have yet to go into a public toilet and smell the nastiness prevalent in most stops along US highways or in airport and train toilets. There is an attendant at public restrooms to sell you $.25 of toilet paper for use of the facility, and they keep the places spotless. And these are the moppingest people I've ever seen. Many shop owners mop their shops every morning and go right out the front door to mop the sidewalk. I'm amused that they don't waste money on a mop and a broom. Most often, the mop is a broom with a shammy cloth with a hole cut in the middle to double as the mop.
I caught a train from Cairo to the terrorist district in southern Egypt in 1999 or 2000. I had tummy troubles from all the alien food I was enjoying, from fish to pigeon. The train was rickety, and the toilet immediately made me think 'Trainspotting 2' (and that was before there was a sequel movie). I was in the pits of despair by the time I got to the station, and that wasn't helped when cop siren were blaring before I got off, and immediately I knew it was for me... except I wasn't arrested, it was there to impress me. An hour later, I received one of my best memories.
If I buy you coffee now can I get your upcoming special article?
Describing Trudeau as an airhead is a compliment .. I’d say he’s vacuous to the extent that there’s a hard vacuum between his ears.
LOL. I love it! Can I steal it?
Please do 👍
News about the Ukraine Project.
This comes from the part of me i call Cassandra, it comes as intuitive evaluation, including all facts i have gathered on a subject via its associations. A feeling or maybe "Sensing". I translate it into a percentage of probability.
I hope you will appreciate it.
Sander.
Occupy: (From a Tweet)
Odessa is the last chance for the Empire to get a foothold on the Black Sea, now it seems clear Sevastopol on Crimea is out of reach.
This is a primary Strategic target.
Control the Black Sea, threaten Russia's weak South-West Underbelly, create a Navy in the Black Sea, block Russian access to the Oceans and draw Türkiye back into NATO Keeping a way to export Grain and vegetable oil open.
To stop that Strategic Target, Russia has to invade the Black Sea Coast south of Odessa, blocking total access to the Black Sea, cutting the Supply from Rumania and connecting with Transnistria and its supplies of Ammunition and Artillery + Tank parts.
The purposefully targeted and destroyed 2 of the total 3 Amphibious Assault vessels of the Russian Navy with enormous costs and use of special resources was intended to prevent Russia to do this.
As was the attempt to create a bridgehead East of the Dnieper at Krynky and other places.
The recent requests from Moldova and Transnistria for Russian help is a sign that the RuAF is considering a crossing of the Dnieper river towards Nicolaiv or via Zaporizhia, as one of 3 other possible offensives (Dnipro/Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkov and the North East of Kiev).
An offensive that way to Odessa in the South has to cross various rivers and will take time, while their Right/North flank is exposed to Polish or NATO troops intervening and Odessa-supply from Rumania.
About this intention of NATO we hear more and more.
The invasion south of Odessa will solve that. Including Airdrops of Special forces.
So far the conclusions of our Mentat Cassandra...
67.5 % Probability.
->https://www.occupyschagen.nl/Div/Cassandra-1.jpg
PS.
From today's Military Summary Channel->https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBHtq-SRCwE
After Mariupol, I thought that the Russians' next target should be Odessa since leaving the Ukrainians in control of it increased the risk for the Russian Navy. However the Russians had other plans. It is also true that taking any major city has special risks. It takes time, resources, and usually ends up destroying the city.
Under the circumstances, the Russians choices were limited but I think they made the best choice.
Right now however the situation is quite different. The Russians have the resources to besiege Odessa AND continue their military operations to liberate the Donbass and Kharkov as well.
UK or supplying Ukrainians with upgraded stealth drones, which can be a problem. But so far they have managed to sink one small rocket ship and an aging landing ship used to transport cargo.
No they didn't sink the Moskva! Although everyone seems to think they did – including Alex Mercouris. But the damage shown in the videos is clearly not a missile strike – it is from an internal explosion. I don't think the Polish or the Romanians would attempt to intervene. That would be an act of war and the Russians would immediately strike at their bases in Poland and Romania.
However recently a Russian fighter approached a French AWACS aircraft over the Black Sea. A message?
If the Russians mount a military operation against Odessa, it makes sense to declare a no-fly zone for "unfriendly" countries in the Black Sea who have a demonstrated military involvement in in the war. That will restrict NATO ISR. The US is done this and other theaters – so there is precedent for it.
"The US does not have values: it has rich people."
"The US government exists the good of their billionaires."
This explains everything that is messed up in the US. Nothing is about the working class people. Everything is for the uber-wealthy.
Another insightful summary giving perspective to reality - which will be appreciated by those already aware of reality and ignored by those steeped in delusions.
"The head of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence says Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny died from a blood clot," - death by blood clot has almost become a cliche since the introduction of MRNA shots developed and released under the auspices of the USA MICIMATT. The Americans dunnit!
I just checked on his vaccinations. Seems he WAS given MRNA shots --in Germany-- and there is some medical research that suggests that such vaccinations are unsuitable for people with his medical conditions.
Thanks for checking this Julian. However, there is abundant medical evidence showing that both MRNA and viral vector shots are unsuitable for everybody. Please look at excess mortality rates around the world where these two technologies were taken up in the past 2-3 years and you can begin to see a broad picture of what is going on.
The Russians do not use vaccines MRNA . Their vaccines are just as effective (or ineffective) but have much fewer side effects, including blood clots. If the clot was induced somehow that would only have been of benefit to the Ukrainians or the Americans.
If we ever get smart enough to stop sending money overseas. We could probably build something exciting and new again. But that would take generators of un-learning to to so.
Great story, Julian!
I'm Canadian. And I think of all the wonderful things Canadian government could do with the money that is spending on NATO, overpriced defense systems it doesn't need, and support for Ukraine and Israel. Healthcare. Affordable housing. Tuition free education. Support for business startups. It's an endless list. But actually affordable.
Yesterday in his daily report, Alexander Mercouris read an excellent X post by David Sachs. Concise and full of truth. It is here: https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1758976951744897179
Sachs is always good. As is Mercouris. "I'm no military expert"....then something very expert. "Just saying".
The Reading by "Mr. Anyway" as i call him respectfully (after deviating from his storyline, he perfectly returns to where he was, something i cannot do...) of the Historical Tweet of David Sachs: (It starts at the right point)
A WAR OF LIES->https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZM0zCu1uyUw&t=4513s
Sander
I can return to my storyline – but usually it's two days later....LOL
I love his "anyway" and also his "just saying".
"Russia is now very much an autarchy".
Whoops! I think you meant "an autarky". Wouldn't want to agree with poor old Joe, Rishi, Emmanuelle, etc., would you?
I fixed it. And checked it. "Autarchy: is also a variant spelling-- mostly in Brit --now obsolete. Obsolete like me? LOL.
I had not known that it was a variant spelling. But the COED agrees with you! 8-) A peculiar situation, as the basic meanings of the two words are quite different.
Better for me to use words with their common meaning. Once again thank you.
You are sooooooooooooooo right! Thank you.!
I've been impressed by Putin too, and I read a lot about him from Karl Sanchez from karlof1’s Geopolitical Gymnasium on Substack. I hope you check him out.
I used to follow Karl on MoA and I was so impressed with the way he went to the source! A very smart man.
Karl Sanchez is great !
I am going to share this article with acquaintances who need to see that government can work for its citizens. The investment in public goods will provide lasting benefits to Russian citizens.
Here in the U.S, our president is taking a heroic stance against the import of Chinese electric passenger cars in the name of national security. These cars allegedly have the ability to track your movements and media consumption. Can't have that! But President Biden, we are already there. Any car produced domestically or imported from Europe or Japan has the same intrusive features enabled for the past decade. If this is a bad feature for a Chinese produced vehicle, then it's a bad feature period and should be curtailed.
I do have a bit of melancholy from reading this piece. Spending on armaments is a waste of precious resources, no matter whose. Commercial plane production is a vector to a destroyed atmosphere. And surviving the vicious consequences of climate change will not be a walk in the park. Those Siberian methane burps will be a real downer.
All new Toyota vehicles not only track your movements but data traffic from inside the vehicle!
Fortunately, most of us ordinaries can't afford new cars.
At least, according to one of my coffee buyers.
Thanks for this well researched, informative post. Most Americans think Russia is close to a third world country. Not so. Hopefully information such as yours can change the dynamic for more positive future relations.
America is already a third world country.
I like that ... judge a country by its toilets! One of my surprises in moving to the "poor" country of Ecuador (we now live in Cuenca) has been I have yet to go into a public toilet and smell the nastiness prevalent in most stops along US highways or in airport and train toilets. There is an attendant at public restrooms to sell you $.25 of toilet paper for use of the facility, and they keep the places spotless. And these are the moppingest people I've ever seen. Many shop owners mop their shops every morning and go right out the front door to mop the sidewalk. I'm amused that they don't waste money on a mop and a broom. Most often, the mop is a broom with a shammy cloth with a hole cut in the middle to double as the mop.
I caught a train from Cairo to the terrorist district in southern Egypt in 1999 or 2000. I had tummy troubles from all the alien food I was enjoying, from fish to pigeon. The train was rickety, and the toilet immediately made me think 'Trainspotting 2' (and that was before there was a sequel movie). I was in the pits of despair by the time I got to the station, and that wasn't helped when cop siren were blaring before I got off, and immediately I knew it was for me... except I wasn't arrested, it was there to impress me. An hour later, I received one of my best memories.
I visited China 25 years ago or more. Toilets were....awful. Recently -- a BIG change. Amazing! A revolution.
I remember going to one in France where it was just a metal grate on the floor with a hole in the middle. I decided I didn't have to go that bad! LOL
A little more advanced than the China I visited.