Wolff and Hudson's Big Picture

And me....

I am a fan of “big picture” analyses.

Here we have Wolff and Hudson with the biggest of big pictures—intellectual IMAX —explaining why Trump’s “initiatives” are going nowhere although he needs some kind of positive results in Ukraine before his State of the Union address on March 4 – specifically a “ceasefire”.

But this is not happening. Won’t happen.

A coup?

Even if the Donald can engineer a coup against Zelensky, all the possible replacements for the Green Goblin that are acceptable to both the US, and also NATO – Poroshenko, Zaluzhny, Klitschko—are NeoNazis—who will never be accepted by the Russians. They did not fight and sacrifice just to see another bunch of extremists take power. Even with a ceasefire, the violence would soon start up again.

In addition, with most political parties banned, how can democratic elections be held at all? What would be the results?

This would be like the assassination of Diem in Vietnam in 1963, which accelerated the decline of South Vietnam, prompting Uncle Ho’ to say: “how could they be so stupid?”

Simply put, Zelensky can leave and another can take his place. Or he can be just killed. Trump will call it “change”. But for the Russians it is not “change you can believe in”. They will keep fighting.

Already, the British are talking of deploying new maritime drones in the Black Sea.

That makes it imperative for the Russians to take the oblasts on the Black Sea once the have finished with Donbas and established positions in Kharkov and Sumy.

Or, the Banderites must surrender unconditionally.

The only way for democracy to be restored in Ukraine is if Russian forces oversee elections starting with referenda for the oblasts now under the Kiev’s regime’s control. The likelihood is a a much smaller “Western Ukraine” with its capital in Lviv.

What can the US do?

Blame Zelensky. Blame Europe, Escape … and deflect! “Deflect” means redirect attention to another theatre, abandoning Europe.

The Europeans realize this, of course, hence their current hysteria. And they realize that since they are now bankrupt and rapidly de-industrializing. they have nothing to offer the Americans anymore.

So Trump is dumping them and looking for something different.

He is proud of playing his opponents to get quick results in deals. He is after all the “Great Negotiator”.

The KGB, however, trained its operatives, of whom Putin was one to “play” people -but in a much more sophisticated way, that emphasized equilibrium over time. And that is what Putin is doing. Taking his time. And keeping balance, with tests.

Trump seeks to throw people off balance. Putin does judo — he lets his opponents throw themselves —by overextending —and losing balance.

Tests

The Russians have already tested the Americans by (reportedly) demanding they give up their front line nuke bases in Eastern Europe. This is actually a compromise solution if we look back to Gorbachev’s understandings in his negotiations with the West.

The documents show that Gorbachev agreed to German unification in NATO as the result of this cascade of assurances, and on the basis of his own analysis that the future of the Soviet Union depended on its integration into Europe, for which Germany would be the decisive actor. He and most of his allies believed that some version of the common European home was still possible and would develop alongside the transformation of NATO to lead to a more inclusive and integrated European space, that the post-Cold War settlement would take account of the Soviet security interests. The alliance with Germany would not only overcome the Cold War but also turn on its head the legacy of the Great Patriotic War.

This would be a step towards balance.

Obviously Russian’s integration into Europe would open the way for Russia to become a NATO member –changing the character of NATO as an anti-Russian coalition.

In a series of interviews with American film director Oliver Stone, Putin said he inquired about Russia joining the alliance when then U.S. President Bill Clinton visited Moscow in 2000.

“During the meeting I said: ‘Let’s consider an option that Russia might join NATO,'” Putin recalled. “Clinton said ‘Why not?’ But the U.S. delegation got very nervous.”

In any event, the US is not going to offer Russia any fundamental changes in the security architecture on its Western frontier. Russia, therefore, is going to continue its campaign.

State of the Union March 4

What is likely, however, is that on March 4, Trump will tell congress he is negotiating a settlement with the Russians which promises new security architecture in Europe – – with the US withdrawing support not just of Ukraine but for Europe too and redirecting its efforts to the Pacific to confront China – which Trump will identify as the new Bad Guy. He will suggest that he is forming some kind of “partnership” with Russia, re-establishing diplomatic relations – and separating Russia from China. But the US will keep its bases in Europe and force the Europeans build their military capabilities, buying US weapons.

Words are cheap. As far as Russian security is concerned, nothing much will change.

Dominance

There will not be no viable “partnership”with Russia since the US has nothing to offer it. And Russia will not betray its friends— China and Iran—nor BRICS.

Many analysts think that China is the new “designated enemy”. It is—but as the backbone of BRICS, which promises the end of American dominance and the financialized system that Wolff and Hudson explain so well.

As I wrote yesterday, in my essay on Berletic, the issue here is dominance,

The US multipolar concept is a dominance system which depends on the global inequality of nations and people. BRICS is a collaborative, cooperative system which depends on equality. One system is hierarchical; the other, heterarchical.

The Russians have long experience with the political language Orwell speaks of and they are ready—they will not be dupted.

Pray that BRICS wins.

Dogs and others….

At the Zoo I worked at people brought in a lot of young deer, which had to be cleaned up and bottle fed. And then what? The Zoo’s curator had a black lab, who loved to look after them! I thought, “if only people could be so kind to each other!”

Kindness is a natural thing. An instinct. We all have it.

So Chappy and Ichi tell me.

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