WW3 is Economic

The usual suspects in the mainstream media – FT, The Economist, Bloomberg and all the rest – are saying that the Russia's oil business is in trouble. On the one hand, they claim that Ukrainian drone strikes have crippled as much is 10% of Russia's oil production capacity – this based on UK "intelligence" reports and Kiev’s “independent-but-American-funded media”-- as well as their not-to-careful interpretations of Russian social media.

On the other hand, they say that some customers in China and India have cancelled orders delivered by sanctioned tankers fearing US retaliation, which is no doubt true but, without context, perhaps misleading..

The Russian MoD claimed to have downed almost of all of the drones with air defense missiles and electronic warfare, attributing damage to debris from the UAV’s and missiles operating at low altitudes. In the past the MoD has rarely lied about such things—if only because Russia has a very active social media network happy to catch them up if they try.

Kiev and British “intelligence” (an oxymoron, of course) have a long history of outright falsification. Sophisticated, clever — but false. Sources always on the sauce.

Think: Bucha.

Debris from the attacks started fires in one or two oil refineries which were shut down temporarily as safety measures-- but these massive facilities were in no way put out of operation. So the effect on production quotas was minimal.

The tanker sanctions?

As is always the case with such American sanctions on anything, the effects are likely temporary — certainly if recent history is to be believed. The Russians have had the time and the experience to prepare workarounds for sanctions. They also have that thing sadly lacking in the West — strategic foresight.

That “shadow” fleet? LOL It’s called “shadow” for a reason. Now you see, now you don’t.

In addition, China and India are two of the world’s biggest economies, together comprising a sizeable chunk of the world’s total population. China is already alienated and under threat. Threatening India, which has made a show of being friends with both Russia and the West, while a little edge about China is just not a good idea since it upsets its delicate balancing act . Russia is still friendly. The US not so much—it has a $45 billion trade deficit.

As for oil prices—they go up and down all the time. Hard to say.

The US claims it have removed over a million barrels from global supply. ‘That, and threatened sanctions on Canada and Mexico, both major oil producers, threaten to destabilize the market. There will be an OPEC meeting Feb. 3 in which the producers are unlikely to agree to Trump’s demand to lower demand. Certainly not if overall supply has decreased or is likely to decrease with US sanctions.

Perhaps in response to all this oopla-hoopla, oil prices went up today.

If indeed, global supply is down a million barrels of Russia oil, that doesn’t put Russia out of the oil business – those sneaky Russkies just get to charge more for what they do supply. And Americans will lend paying extra for everything — ordinary Americans that is.

In the end, Russia will lose nothing.

In the meantime, the Russians are about to take Kiev’s last major strongholds in the Donbas and may cross the Dnieper. The areas it has already taken have an estimated $13 ~14 trillion dollars worth of resources. The figure will increase as Russian forces advance.

The US wants a ceasefire in Ukraine to protect US companies that are heavily invested there. If the Russians take over, most of those investments will go “poof”.

The US does not care about the million or more Ukrainians who died . They are not at war with Russia or China much as they are with the whole world — a largely economic war but just as devastating all told as a military one.

Yet, the US stands to lose — “bigly”.

It has a policy of self-harm, creating an over-inflated economic bubble, with the dollar dangerously over-valued. All it needs is a prick or two to burst the balloon. It happened to Japan in the 90s leading to the “lost decade". Now, it is likely the US’s turn.

Who or what pricks the bubble?

The government and Wall Street are full of pricks.

Note to US: don’t play “win-lose” unless you are sure you are going to win.

Special Article Finished

Hi,

The Special Article is finished— about 6500 words. I made Julian check it again before creating the EPUB version and also had him recheck the mailing list. Tomorrow, you will get urls for the download sites, where you can download your choice of the article in DOCX, PDF or EPUB formats.

As a reward, I have allowed Julian to eat some chocolate. He can do tricks if you provide him with treats. He also begs and rolls over and occasionally talks.

You can still get on the mailing list and/ or show your support by clicking here and buy a coffee.

Of course, the proceeds go to me and Chappy, with a little chocolate for Julian to keep him docile. His training will continue.

Love Ichi

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