WWIII drones on
Times are a' changin'
Today’s post for Coffee Buyers is about criminalizing kids
And WWIII continues…
Lebanon
This is a new Hezbollah.
Zionist strikes on Hezbollah’s political leadership, experience in the 2024 war, as well as the pager attack have created a new, leaner, meaner Hezbollah, decentralized on the Iranian model, adaptive, and also adapting the lessons of asymmetric warfare learned from the SMO in Ukraine.
This has meant:
smaller, more flexible fighting units
command and supply lines rebuilt \under fire
adaptive strike -and-reconnaissance tactics
exploitation of Israel’s strategic mistakes and faulty planning.
Israel and the US have highly hierarchical militaries, commanded top-down, framing conflicts with inherited orthodoxies.
By contrast, both Iran and Hezbollah have heterarchical structures, which are highly adaptive and creative, with strategy, bottom up, evolving dynamically with the situation. Their tactical policy epitomizes John Boyd’s OODA loop.
There is also the matter of logistics. The US and Israel are running out of resources to sustain a long-term war. Hezbollah has accumulated a huge stockpile of the weapons it needs.
Hezbollah is no longer just targeting IDF forces in Lebanon but striking at high value targets such as the Iron Dome site, located at the IDF’s Jal al-Alam site in northern Israel, which was targeted twice, on May 7 and 8.
The first drone strike hit a fully loaded launcher, while the second targeted Israeli troops removing the launcher. The launcher was hidden behind fortified cement blocks, but still found and targeted.
They is situational awareness.
Russia
Victory Day came and went, with Zelensky graciously not attacking the parade, limiting himself to over 16,999ceasefire violations elsewhere. The thousands of people who fled Kiev fearing the worst are going home.
What did the Victory Day Speech say.?
As for Putin’s Victory Day Speech itself which expressed a commitment to a long-term, large-scale, multi-faceted confrontation, with all those setting themselves up as enemies.
Main Points
Now, Russia is opposing not only Ukraine but all of NATO, which is a co-belligerent.
This requires national mobilization of the kind FDR envisaged for the US before Pearl Harbor —not just military—but the whole of Russian society—industry, science, volunteer organizations, education, business—everyone.
The civilizational values that led to victory the Great Patriotic War, have taken on new life as the moral basis for Russian society and the Russian state.
Quick resolution is unlikely. It will be a long war with economic restructuring, and sustained state pressure.
Those affected are:
The Russian people: the war will be long, sacrifices will have to be made, but as with the Great Patriotic war victory is inevitable.
Elites in Russia and the West: a return to the past will no longer be possible
Russia will not capitulate. It’s ultimate goal iHs civilizational rebirth.
Putin Presser
Putin answered questions from the Press –as usual, unscripted, articulate and honest — as ever, remarkably consistent. Here are some excerpts.
Anna Kurbatova: Good afternoon, Mr President. Anna Kurbatova, Channel One.
It is a difficult question, if I may, about what we are seeing now.
Vladimir Putin: Is it really necessary to ask a difficult question? Today is a holiday.
Anna Kurbatova: The skies over the Baltic region are now becoming a corridor for Ukrainian drones. The drones used in strikes against Russia are assembled in factories within the European Union. The Russian Ministry of Defence has even published locations and details. What does Russia intend to do with this information?
And another point – this question has already been asked, but I would like to elaborate:
Russia has been expanding a security buffer zone in border regions, but drones continue to strike deeper inside Russia, including places such as Perm, the Leningrad Region, and Tuapse.
Does this mean the security zone may need to expand further? Maybe to the western borders of Ukraine, where…
Vladimir Putin: You have answered your own question. Our objective is to ensure that no one can threaten Russia. That is what we will continue to pursue.
In other words, the security zone must extend to Ukraine’s borders with Poland and other countries, meaning that Ukraine, as it now calls itself would effectively cease to exist.
This is also what Medvedev has been saying for a long time .
We know that Ukraine receives technology from Europe and that some systems are assembled there. They are playing for the upper hand, but judging by what has just been said, they are already seeking contacts with us, realising that this play for the upper hand could be costly
Vladimir Putin: This kind of stupidity could eventually lead them to poverty.
“They are playing for the upper hand, but judging by what has just been said, they are already seeking contacts with us”. Who are “they”? Ukraine or Europe? Right now it is Europe that appears to be seeking contacts with Russia, following the lead of the US and not wanting to be left out. . As Putin says Europe can not gain the “upper hand”, especially with Ukraine failing. They will destroy the economy trying.
Olga Volkova: Olga Volkova, RIA Novosti.
To follow up on my colleague’s question, I would like to ask about historical memory and its preservation. Why do you think Europe is now so determined to avoid acknowledging the heroism of Soviet soldiers and Soviet fighters? They have even gone so far as to ban St George ribbons.
Given the current sentiment in the West, do you think this trend will intensify? Is there anything Russia can do in response?
Vladimir Putin: The stronger Russia becomes, the sooner all of this will begin to fade. That is the first point.
As Machiavelli pointed out, “it is safer to be feared than loved".” Military power confers respect. Also, economic power.
Second, why is this happening at all? In my view, this is, oddly enough, a form of revanchism on the part of the same globalist Western elites I have mentioned earlier – and I should not even bring them up late in the day.
What do I mean by that? As I have already said – and we all are aware of this – everyone expected Russia to collapse quickly. In their view, within six months everything would have supposedly fallen apart: businesses would have stopped functioning, the banking system would have failed, and millions of people would have lost their livelihoods.
Incidentally, Russia currently has the unemployment rate of 2.2 percent – the lowest among all G20 countries. Yet many believed they would be able to seize something from Russia and grab something, if you’ll excuse the blunt expression.
Why did Finland join NATO? Did we have any territorial disputes with Finland? No.
All such issues had long been resolved. Nothing further was needed, and the Finnish leadership was perfectly aware of that. So why did they join NATO? Because they expected everything here to collapse – and they would be quick to snap that up.
Now they are already constructing a border fence along the Sestra River. I could make a certain gesture or comment about it, but since I come from the cultural capital, I will restrain myself. In many ways, I believe what we are witnessing is driven precisely by this type of thinking.
What does he mean by “revanchism”? For Germany, this was defeat in WWII. For the UK and France ti is was the loss of their empires after 1945, which they blamed on Soviet support for independence movements. “Revanchism” is a kind of national resentment, sometimes more scapegoating than anything else.
But now people are beginning to understand that the situation is not so simple and that serious challenges have emerged, and those are not easy to overcome. It would be wiser to look for ways to restore normal relations and move toward mutually acceptable agreements.
For our part, we have always tried to build relations with Europe on the basis of mutual respect and consideration of each other’s interests. These are not merely diplomatic clichés – that is genuinely how we approached our relations. Even now, not everyone speaks to Europe in that manner, but we always did. Yet apparently that was not enough.
“Even now, not everyone speaks to Europe in that manner. “ He is talking about the US, of course /
I hope the understanding that this approach was mistaken is already beginning to emerge and will continue to grow stronger. And I hope that relations will eventually be restored with many of the countries that are currently attempting to denounce us. The sooner that happens, the better it will be for us and, in this case, for the European countries.
The message is simple. If Europe doesn’t listen, it will suffer Ditto: the US.
I really enjoy your animal videos. They soothe my troubled mind. On Substack there are animal stories from Gaza. The cats soothe the souls of the suffering Palestinians. The people and cats rescue each other.
I have noticed that in both the western and Ukrainian press (English language) they have ignored the ominous warnings and promises that Putin gave in his speech at the parade and at the presser later that day. Do they think the Russians are bluffing?