Alexander Mercouris, whom I greatly respect, is partial to the possibility that the Russians might have known the Ukrainians wanted to strike Kursk and set a trap to – de-mining the border areas and moving their elite combat forces to the rear—to encourage what would amount to strategic suicide.
My impression is that Shoigu is not a bad egg but didn't run a very tight ship, too tolerant of a tradition of corruption by his underlings. I may be completely wrong.
At first i doubted that Putin would expose his Civilians in the border region to the bloodthirsty NAZI'S, until i found out how thinly populated that region is... and how organized the Evacuation.
Anyway, the MAIN-target of the SMO: Total Liberation of Donbass, has been speeding up since the Incursion. And Ukra-NAZI reserves are not available anymore they are being ground down in Kursk.
Possibly, after removing the last invaders from the Kursk-Oblast, the Russians will continue to create a buffer-zone including Sumi ? Continue Defensive Attrition ?
I still think the first real Arrow offensive after the collapse of the Donbass front, will be Zaporizhia-Kherson-Odessa/Transnistria. The rumours about a NATO-buildup to create a fortified foothold on the Black Sea Coast with Air-cover from Romania are too strong.
Crimea stays the primary NATO-target: who controles Crimea, controls the Black Sea, both Air and Sea.
We will see...
Sander
PS. (Update)
On second thoughts...
There was rumour, that Ukraine was using false phone calls to the civilians to flee the Border zone, causing traffic problems for Russia.
I now think that were Russians doing the phone calls, to speed up the Evacuation. And fake news that Ukraine was doing that...
Civilians going north do not hinder Russian troops going south...
I think you are right about NATO (the US) wanting a foothold on the Black Sea--and Crimea being the primary target. But as the Russian military grows in power, they would be stupid to try . Right now, the Russians are helping Western Ukraine commit national suicide. Reports are the UkroNazis have been drawing on forces in the Donbas to bolster the fiasco in Kursk. Thanks for mentioning the sparse population of the border region and the well-organized evacuation. Forgot to put that into the article.. It appears the Russians are focusing on destroying NATO assets (equipment) in Kursk first; then mercenary groupings. When they finished in Kursk, it is a short trip to Sumy itself -- and from Sumy to Kiev. I don't think the Russians want to directly attack any large city. If the UAF collapses they won't have to. The Western Ukrainians may be brainwashed --just as the Japanese were in WWII-- but defeat and vulnerability and suffering induce a change of mind.
When the Donbass front really collapses and understanding the feelings in Russia, Ukraine as a state cannot survive in anything like it was.
But there is rumour and reasons in the Empire to get rid of the old regime and start a regime "In exile".
They could choose a city in Germany for that (if those want to accept it), but i think a strong stream in the Deepstate will want to try to create a fortified (including NATO-troops) Odessa/Black Sea Coast. There are ready plans, preparations and other signals for that.
Part of it is (still) a possible role for Moldova and (almost certainly) Romania (mainly for Supply and Airforce purposes). Then they have something to offer in Negotiations, which will be proposed after januari 2025. When Kiev falls, surrender cannot take place then, because Odessa still is in NATO hands.
So.
Putin has to choose: Kiev first ? Then he risks losing the Black Sea coast or he has to liquidate a NATO-army with NATO Air-cover (no fly zone) over the West Black Sea.
Odessa first ? Then he has to hurry and kick them out before their air-force is ready and their supply-lines from Romania are protected. Having still an empty regime in Kiev can wait.
Yes. It was mislabeled on Google. It was late at night I was tired and didn't check. My bad. I have updated the article and corrected the the image. Thank you for noticing
After I watched the first report Gerasimov gave to Putin following the Kursk incursion I got the impression he was toast. Had a full comment on Simplicius stack.
Not now though. I give him till the end of the year. And he won’t sack him just move him somewhere transitioning to retirement which - I imagine - Gerasimov wants anyways.
Dyumin is too important. He’s subbing in until the Kursk thing is contained and finished but there are bigger plans for him.
My impression is that Shoigu is not a bad egg but didn't run a very tight ship, too tolerant of a tradition of corruption by his underlings. I may be completely wrong.
I think you are exactly right.
Thank you for this rational explanation. I've seen too much hype in the last few days to be able to get any sense where things stand.
Julian that is the best article I have read on the subject.
Thank you!!
Good Article...!
At first i doubted that Putin would expose his Civilians in the border region to the bloodthirsty NAZI'S, until i found out how thinly populated that region is... and how organized the Evacuation.
Anyway, the MAIN-target of the SMO: Total Liberation of Donbass, has been speeding up since the Incursion. And Ukra-NAZI reserves are not available anymore they are being ground down in Kursk.
Possibly, after removing the last invaders from the Kursk-Oblast, the Russians will continue to create a buffer-zone including Sumi ? Continue Defensive Attrition ?
I still think the first real Arrow offensive after the collapse of the Donbass front, will be Zaporizhia-Kherson-Odessa/Transnistria. The rumours about a NATO-buildup to create a fortified foothold on the Black Sea Coast with Air-cover from Romania are too strong.
Crimea stays the primary NATO-target: who controles Crimea, controls the Black Sea, both Air and Sea.
We will see...
Sander
PS. (Update)
On second thoughts...
There was rumour, that Ukraine was using false phone calls to the civilians to flee the Border zone, causing traffic problems for Russia.
I now think that were Russians doing the phone calls, to speed up the Evacuation. And fake news that Ukraine was doing that...
Civilians going north do not hinder Russian troops going south...
I think you are right about NATO (the US) wanting a foothold on the Black Sea--and Crimea being the primary target. But as the Russian military grows in power, they would be stupid to try . Right now, the Russians are helping Western Ukraine commit national suicide. Reports are the UkroNazis have been drawing on forces in the Donbas to bolster the fiasco in Kursk. Thanks for mentioning the sparse population of the border region and the well-organized evacuation. Forgot to put that into the article.. It appears the Russians are focusing on destroying NATO assets (equipment) in Kursk first; then mercenary groupings. When they finished in Kursk, it is a short trip to Sumy itself -- and from Sumy to Kiev. I don't think the Russians want to directly attack any large city. If the UAF collapses they won't have to. The Western Ukrainians may be brainwashed --just as the Japanese were in WWII-- but defeat and vulnerability and suffering induce a change of mind.
Thank you. I agree...
When the Donbass front really collapses and understanding the feelings in Russia, Ukraine as a state cannot survive in anything like it was.
But there is rumour and reasons in the Empire to get rid of the old regime and start a regime "In exile".
They could choose a city in Germany for that (if those want to accept it), but i think a strong stream in the Deepstate will want to try to create a fortified (including NATO-troops) Odessa/Black Sea Coast. There are ready plans, preparations and other signals for that.
Part of it is (still) a possible role for Moldova and (almost certainly) Romania (mainly for Supply and Airforce purposes). Then they have something to offer in Negotiations, which will be proposed after januari 2025. When Kiev falls, surrender cannot take place then, because Odessa still is in NATO hands.
So.
Putin has to choose: Kiev first ? Then he risks losing the Black Sea coast or he has to liquidate a NATO-army with NATO Air-cover (no fly zone) over the West Black Sea.
Odessa first ? Then he has to hurry and kick them out before their air-force is ready and their supply-lines from Romania are protected. Having still an empty regime in Kiev can wait.
Just my cent...
Sander
Good article but the photo is Dmitry Peskov
Oh my.....Must have been tired last night! Thanks. I will fix that!
No problem. Was just giving you a heads up :)
Thank you so much. I corrected the photo.
The man in the photo is Dimitry Peskov , no?
Yes. It was mislabeled on Google. It was late at night I was tired and didn't check. My bad. I have updated the article and corrected the the image. Thank you for noticing
It is definitely worth checking out Larry Johnson's post with Pepe Escobar's view to Kursk: https://sonar21.com/critical-updates-on-kursk-and-the-war-in-palestine/
Yes I had seen this.
After I watched the first report Gerasimov gave to Putin following the Kursk incursion I got the impression he was toast. Had a full comment on Simplicius stack.
Not now though. I give him till the end of the year. And he won’t sack him just move him somewhere transitioning to retirement which - I imagine - Gerasimov wants anyways.
Dyumin is too important. He’s subbing in until the Kursk thing is contained and finished but there are bigger plans for him.
He will be kicked upstairs. But as deputies will be cleaned out. And his network will be disassembled. He reportedly wanted to retire anyway.